本文選題：流動(dòng)人口 + 農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力��； 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著工業(yè)化和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,戶籍制度等限制性政策的松動(dòng),大量農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力離開本鄉(xiāng)本土外出務(wù)工,這引發(fā)了中國大規(guī)模的人口流動(dòng)。目前我國擁有6.7億多農(nóng)村人口,他們將不斷進(jìn)入城市尋求發(fā)展,因此正確分析流動(dòng)人口的現(xiàn)狀及轉(zhuǎn)移趨勢(shì),充分挖掘勞動(dòng)力的供給潛力對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定有著重大意義。 本文借鑒國內(nèi)外研究經(jīng)驗(yàn)及模式,并結(jié)合我國具體國情,設(shè)計(jì)發(fā)放了流動(dòng)人口調(diào)查問卷,對(duì)流動(dòng)人口的基本特征、職業(yè)分布、社會(huì)環(huán)境及潛在流動(dòng)人口情況等進(jìn)行了具體分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,首次將結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型應(yīng)用到流動(dòng)人口遷移意愿的研究中,選取經(jīng)濟(jì)條件、生活環(huán)境、社會(huì)福利保障、遷移意愿4個(gè)潛在變量,并通過問卷中的若干個(gè)顯在變量進(jìn)行測量,對(duì)問卷數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析檢驗(yàn)后,最終得到潛在變量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化路徑系數(shù),即對(duì)流動(dòng)人口遷移意愿的影響系數(shù)。在分析流動(dòng)人口遷移意愿過程中需要充分考慮流動(dòng)人口對(duì)工作、生活環(huán)境等的滿意度,本文首次將屬性層次模型(AHM)和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法運(yùn)用到我國流動(dòng)人口滿意度評(píng)價(jià)中,通過建立遞階層次結(jié)構(gòu)的指標(biāo)體系,確定各指標(biāo)的屬性權(quán)重,然后分層次進(jìn)行模糊綜合評(píng)判,評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果表明我國流動(dòng)人口對(duì)現(xiàn)有工作、生活表示基本滿意,滿意度評(píng)價(jià)分?jǐn)?shù)為70.17。 對(duì)我國流動(dòng)人口趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行研究時(shí),必須對(duì)農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量做準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)算,本文采用CD生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法,對(duì)此進(jìn)行了短期預(yù)測。分析表明我國農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量主要集中在18000萬-24000萬,從2004年開始呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢(shì)(除2008、2009年受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)影響)。大量流動(dòng)人口的出現(xiàn),農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)不斷進(jìn)入城市尋求發(fā)展,這些現(xiàn)象加速了我國城市化進(jìn)程。本文采用聯(lián)合國法對(duì)我國城市化率進(jìn)行測算,預(yù)測結(jié)果指出到2030年我國城市化率將達(dá)到73%,這對(duì)我國的就業(yè)、環(huán)境及資源等都提出了嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。
[Abstract]:With the constant development of industrialization and national economy and the loosening of restrictive policies such as the household registration system, a large number of rural labors left their native areas to work, which led to large-scale population mobility in China. At present, there are more than 670 million rural people in our country, and they will continue to enter the city to seek development. Therefore, we should correctly analyze the current situation and the transfer trend of the floating population. Fully tapping the supply potential of labor force is of great significance to China's economic development and social stability. This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign research experience and the pattern, unifies our country concrete situation, has designed and distributed the floating population questionnaire, has carried on the concrete analysis to the floating population basic characteristic, the occupation distribution, the social environment and the potential floating population situation and so on. On this basis, the structural equation model is first applied to the study of the migration intention of the floating population, and four potential variables are selected: economic conditions, living environment, social welfare security, and the willingness to migrate. Through the measurement of several explicit variables in the questionnaire, the standardized path coefficient of the potential variable, that is, the influence coefficient on the floating population's willingness to migrate, is obtained after the analysis and test of the questionnaire data. It is necessary to consider the satisfaction of the floating population to the work and living environment in the process of analyzing the migration intention of the floating population. In this paper, the attribute hierarchy model (AHM) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to the evaluation of the satisfaction degree of the floating population in our country for the first time. Through establishing the index system of hierarchical structure, the attribute weight of each index is determined, and then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out in different levels. The evaluation results show that the floating population in our country is basically satisfied with the existing work and life, and the satisfaction evaluation score is 70.17. In order to study the trend of floating population in China, we must make an accurate budget for the number of rural surplus labor force. In this paper, the CD production function method is used to predict this problem in the short term. The analysis shows that the number of rural surplus labor in China is mainly from 180 million to 240 million, and has been decreasing since 2004 (except 2008, 2009 is affected by the global economic crisis). With the emergence of a large number of floating population, rural surplus labor continues to enter the city to seek development, which accelerates the process of urbanization in China. This paper uses the United Nations method to measure the urbanization rate of our country. The forecast result points out that the urbanization rate of our country will reach 73% by 2030, which poses a severe challenge to employment, environment and resources of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C921

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 王桂芝;呂肖君;陸金帥;李潔;;基于AHM算法的流動(dòng)人口遷移滿意度研究[J];廣西師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2013年02期

2 陳紀(jì)波;王桂芝;陸金帥;李潔;;基于SEM模型的流動(dòng)人口遷移意愿研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與信息論壇;2013年10期

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本文編號(hào)：2047204