本文選題：民工荒 + 二元經(jīng)濟(jì)理論��； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國在實(shí)行改革開放政策以來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度顯著增加，這與我國擁有著大量的廉價(jià)勞動力是分不開的，，一直以來我國都享受著這種人口紅利帶來的優(yōu)勢，但自從2004年下半年這種情況發(fā)生了變化，起先從東南沿海傳來了企業(yè)用工荒的消息，經(jīng)過了2008年的金融危機(jī)后，企業(yè)用工荒問題愈演愈厲，變成了一個(gè)波及全國，不分區(qū)域的難題。筆者通過走訪企業(yè)和數(shù)據(jù)分析，深入探討了產(chǎn)生這一問題的原因，總結(jié)了七個(gè)方面，分別包括季節(jié)性短缺、結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺、工資過低、農(nóng)民工群體的逐利選擇、區(qū)域短期替代、新生代農(nóng)民工的觀念變化以及人口波動帶來的影響。以上種種社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素共同促成了民工荒這一問題的出現(xiàn)，這些可被認(rèn)為是民工荒問題的基礎(chǔ)原因。而后筆者用托達(dá)羅模型進(jìn)一步分析民工荒這一問題，并根據(jù)我國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況進(jìn)行修正，分析結(jié)果顯示我國現(xiàn)行的二元戶籍管理制度是民工荒問題出現(xiàn)的深層次原因，嚴(yán)格的城鄉(xiāng)區(qū)分桎梏了農(nóng)村勞動力向城市的轉(zhuǎn)移。 當(dāng)今很多學(xué)者認(rèn)為民工荒現(xiàn)象表明我國已進(jìn)入劉易斯拐點(diǎn)，即勞動力由幾乎無限供給轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閯趧恿┙o不足。筆者運(yùn)用劉易斯模型對這種理論進(jìn)行分析，并根據(jù)我國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況對這一經(jīng)典模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn)使其能夠更加準(zhǔn)確的反映我國實(shí)際，得出如今的勞動力供給稀缺現(xiàn)象只是我國進(jìn)入劉易斯拐點(diǎn)的一種假象，我國勞動力供給在未來很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)依然相對充足而穩(wěn)定。 民工荒問題對我國社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是顯而易見的，但許多人只注意到了其消極影響，如對我國勞動密集型企業(yè)的沖擊，使一些主要勞動流入地區(qū)失去其原本優(yōu)勢等。筆者在深入探討了這一問題對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的消極影響的基礎(chǔ)上，也注意到了民工荒問題的積極影響，筆者主要從加速我國企業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級、促進(jìn)勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的梯度轉(zhuǎn)移、加強(qiáng)農(nóng)民工權(quán)益的保障三方面進(jìn)行闡述。 最后，針對以上種種民工荒問題出現(xiàn)的原因和其對經(jīng)濟(jì)社會產(chǎn)生的影響，提出解決這一問題的對策，主要從企業(yè)、農(nóng)民工和政府三方面論述。能否妥善解決好這一問題，影響到我國經(jīng)濟(jì)是否能平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展，對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行具有重大意義。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening up, China's economic growth rate has increased significantly, which is inseparable from the fact that China has a large number of cheap labor forces. All along, our country has enjoyed the advantages of this demographic dividend. However, since the second half of 2004, the situation has changed. At first, the news of the shortage of enterprise workers came from the southeast coast. After the financial crisis of 2008, the problem of the shortage of enterprise workers became more and more serious and became a nationwide one. A problem of no region. By visiting enterprises and analyzing data, the author deeply discusses the causes of this problem, and summarizes seven aspects, including seasonal shortage, structural shortage, low wages, the choice of migrant workers, regional short-term substitution. The new generation of migrant workers concept changes and the impact of population fluctuations. These social and economic factors have contributed to the emergence of the problem of migrant workers, which can be considered as the basic cause of the problem. Then the author uses the Todaro model to further analyze the problem of the shortage of migrant workers, and according to the reality of our country, the analysis results show that the current dual household registration management system is the deep-seated cause of the shortage of migrant workers. The strict distinction between urban and rural areas has restricted the transfer of rural labor to cities. Nowadays, many scholars think that the phenomenon of labor shortage indicates that our country has entered the Lewis inflection point, that is, the labor force has changed from an almost infinite supply to a labor shortage. The author uses Lewis model to analyze this theory, and improves the classical model according to the reality of our country so that it can reflect the reality of our country more accurately. It is concluded that the scarcity of labor supply is only an illusion that our country has entered the Lewis inflection point, and the supply of labor force in our country is still relatively sufficient and stable for a long time in the future. The problem of labor shortage has obvious influence on the social economy of our country, but many people only pay attention to its negative influence, such as the impact on the labor-intensive enterprises in our country, so that some main labor inflow areas lose their original advantages and so on. On the basis of deeply discussing the negative influence of this problem on our country's economy and society, the author also pays attention to the positive influence of the problem of the shortage of migrant workers. The author mainly starts from speeding up the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country's enterprises. Promote the gradient transfer of labor-intensive industries and strengthen the protection of migrant workers' rights and interests. Finally, in view of the causes of the above problems and their impact on the economy and society, the author puts forward the countermeasures to solve this problem, mainly from the three aspects of enterprises, migrant workers and the government. Whether we can properly solve this problem will affect the steady and rapid development of our country's economy, which is of great significance to the smooth operation of our country's economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F323.6;C92-05

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