本文選題：中部地區(qū) + 省際人口流出��； 參考：《人口學刊》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章基于"五普"、"六普"、2005年和2015年全國1%人口抽樣調查數(shù)據(jù),從人口流出的角度分析中部各省人口流出的變動特征,結果發(fā)現(xiàn)21世紀以來中部總體流出人口規(guī)模增速雖有上升,但相對全國有所放緩,中部各省中流出人口規(guī)模大的省份有流出人口規(guī)模增速放緩的趨勢,而規(guī)模小的省份有增速加快的趨勢,中部省際流出人口的流向選擇具有明顯的區(qū)域聚集效應,流向分布以湖南、安徽和江西最為集中,以山西、河南最為分散�；�2002~2012年面板數(shù)據(jù)建立中部省際人口流出對流出地經濟影響的變系數(shù)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)中部省際人口流出對中部地區(qū)總體經濟增長具有微弱負向影響;中部省際人口流出不利于縮小中部與東部地區(qū)的經濟差距;此外,中部省際人口流出在一定程度上阻礙了中部地區(qū)產業(yè)結構的轉型和升級,人口流出總體上降低了第三產業(yè)GDP產值比重,相對增加第一和第二產業(yè)GDP產值比重。中部地區(qū)經濟水平的相對落后導致中部地區(qū)大規(guī)模的人口流出,而人口流出又進一步阻礙了中部地區(qū)的經濟發(fā)展。因此,地方政府有必要加強對中部經濟發(fā)展的重視,緩解中部大量人才外流現(xiàn)象,同時中部人口流出對各省的影響不一,政策制定還需因地制宜。
[Abstract]:Based on the "five popular", "six popular" and the national 1% population sample survey data in 2005 and 2015, this paper analyzes the changing characteristics of the population outflow from the central provinces from the point of view of population outflow. The results show that the growth rate of the total outflow population in the central region has increased since the 21st century. But relative to the national slowdown, the provinces with large outflow population in the central provinces have a tendency to slow down the growth rate of the outflow population, while the smaller provinces have a tendency to accelerate the growth rate. The flow direction selection of the outflow population in central provinces has obvious regional aggregation effect. The direction distribution is most concentrated in Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi, and most dispersed in Shanxi and Henan. Based on the panel data from 2002 to 2012, the variable coefficient panel data model of the economic impact of the central provincial population outflow on the outflow area is established, and it is found that the central provincial population outflow has a weak negative impact on the overall economic growth of the central region. The inter-provincial population outflow in the central region is not conducive to narrowing the economic gap between the central and eastern regions. In addition, the inter-provincial population outflow in the central region has to a certain extent hindered the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the central region. As a whole, the outflow of population reduces the proportion of GDP output of the tertiary industry, and increases the proportion of GDP output of the first and the second industries. The relative backwardness of the economic level in the central region leads to the massive outflow of population in the central region, which further hinders the economic development of the central region. Therefore, it is necessary for the local government to pay more attention to the economic development of the central region and alleviate the phenomenon of the brain drain from the central region. Meanwhile, the outflow of the central population has different effects on the provinces, and the policy formulation should be adapted to the local conditions.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學東北亞研究中心;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金項目:人口遷移與延邊朝鮮族人口負增長關系研究(13BRK023);國家社會科學基金項目:“人口城鎮(zhèn)化”理論與制度創(chuàng)新研究(14BRK035)
【分類號】：C924.2;F127

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