本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)特大城市的功能布局與人口疏解研究——以北京為例，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

我國(guó)特大城市的功能布局與人口疏解研究——以北京為例

China＇s Demographic Estimation Using the Generalized Stable Population Model

[1] [2] [3]

CHEN Wei （Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing , 100872, China）

中國(guó)人民大學(xué)人口與發(fā)展研究中心,北京100872

文章摘要：特大城市功能準(zhǔn)確定位被認(rèn)為是破解＂城市�。⒌囊豁�(xiàng)良策。以北京為例,從城市功能結(jié)構(gòu)入手,在分析其城市功能及結(jié)構(gòu)演變的基礎(chǔ)上,探究特大城市功能布局在疏解人口規(guī)模過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題及可行性,為促進(jìn)城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展、緩解城市病提供相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。研究結(jié)果表明,十年間北京政治功能較為穩(wěn)定,經(jīng)濟(jì)功能明顯增強(qiáng),文化科技功能有所減弱。北京各區(qū)縣實(shí)際發(fā)展不符合城市內(nèi)部主體功能規(guī)劃、政府投入偏差等原因加重了城市功能調(diào)控人口規(guī)模難度,因此,應(yīng)該促使城市發(fā)展與其功能定位相符,減少核心功能區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)功能方面的絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)地位,尊重市場(chǎng)機(jī)制對(duì)人口配置的決定性作用,這樣才有利于緩解特大城市的＂城市�。�,達(dá)到疏解中心城區(qū)人口的目標(biāo)。

Abstr：An integrated demographic estimation approach based on the generalized stable population mod- el using census age distributions is used in this paper to reconstruct Chinese fertility and mortality in the three inter-censual periods over 1982-2010. Results show- that fertility and mortality in China have de- creased dramatically, the 1990-2000 fertility was far below replacement, while the 2000~2010 fertility was slightly over 1.5. Comparing the estimates with those published by China＇ s National Bureau of Statistics, our estimates of birth rate and number of births are only slightly higher for 1982~1990 and 2000~2010 in- ter-censual periods, but are markedly lower for the 1990~2000 period than the NBS estimates. Our esti- mates of life expectancy are largely the same as the NBS estimates across the three inter-censual periods. Since this integrated approach produces estimates fairly insensitive to data errors like differential complete- nessof censuses, estimates presented in this research are likely more accurate than estimates from many of the other more restrictive procedures.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Generalized Stable Population Model, Population Census, Fertility, Mortality

課題項(xiàng)目：北京市高�！俺鞘泄δ芏ㄎ患芭涮渍哐芯俊�、“首都人口環(huán)境與發(fā)展研究團(tuán)隊(duì)”、北京市組織部“首都功能定位及配套政策研究”; 2014年勞動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院研究生科研創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目資助

作者信息：會(huì)員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)特大城市的功能布局與人口疏解研究——以北京為例，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。