本文選題：山東省 + 農(nóng)村　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)趨向于老齡的過(guò)程,是隨著年輕人口數(shù)量減少、年長(zhǎng)人口數(shù)量增加而導(dǎo)致的老年人口在整個(gè)社會(huì)人口中所占的比例不斷增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程。總的來(lái)說(shuō),人口老齡化形成的原因有兩個(gè)：一是隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的日益發(fā)展,以及計(jì)劃生育的有效實(shí)施,出生率和死亡率均大幅度下降,老年人口數(shù)在總?cè)藬?shù)的比重日益增加；二是隨著城市化的發(fā)展,農(nóng)村優(yōu)質(zhì)勞動(dòng)力大規(guī)模向城市轉(zhuǎn)移,青壯年的遷移使得遷出地剩余的大部分是老年人與未成年人,加劇了農(nóng)村人口的老齡化程度。農(nóng)業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要基礎(chǔ)性生產(chǎn)部門(mén)和勞動(dòng)力資源需求部門(mén),在山東省國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要地位,而農(nóng)村人口快速老齡化勢(shì)必會(huì)影響到農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)勞動(dòng)力的供給,對(duì)山東省社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展將會(huì)產(chǎn)生深刻的影響。隨著工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化步伐的加快,大量農(nóng)村青壯年勞動(dòng)力流入城鎮(zhèn),留守老人成為農(nóng)村農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的主力軍,在農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化程度低下的情況下,必然影響當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展。 本文在研究山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響時(shí),從兩個(gè)不同的角度展開(kāi)。一是從研究我國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)老齡化的演變過(guò)程入手；二是研究山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,從理論和實(shí)證進(jìn)行全面分析。進(jìn)行理論分析時(shí),結(jié)合相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論,分短期影響和長(zhǎng)期影響兩個(gè)維度進(jìn)行；實(shí)證分析時(shí),利用柯布—道格拉期生產(chǎn)函數(shù),檢驗(yàn)人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響程度。 本篇論文的主要內(nèi)容。第一章是引言,包括本篇論文的研究背景、研究目的、研究意義、研究思路與研究?jī)?nèi)容,以及研究可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處。第二章是理論基礎(chǔ)與文獻(xiàn)綜述。理論基礎(chǔ)是人口因素與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的理論回顧,文獻(xiàn)綜述包括農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述、人口老齡化與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述。第三章分析山東省人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀及成因。本章從四個(gè)方面來(lái)分析,首先是人口老齡化的概念的界定,其次介紹我國(guó)人口老齡化的動(dòng)態(tài)演變過(guò)程,第三分析山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀,接下來(lái)探究山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化的成因,最后總結(jié)山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化的特點(diǎn)。第四章是山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響的規(guī)范分析。本章包括以下內(nèi)容：山東省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的所處的發(fā)展階段及現(xiàn)階段的特點(diǎn),山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的短期影響,山東省人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期影響。第五章是山東省農(nóng)村人口老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響的實(shí)證分析。本章主要對(duì)老齡化對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的影響做實(shí)證分析,從選取模型著手,設(shè)定變量,搜集數(shù)據(jù),再根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果分析具體含義。第六章是本文的結(jié)束,包括本文的研究結(jié)論和對(duì)山東省農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Population aging is a process in which the age structure of the population tends to be aging. It is a dynamic process in which the proportion of the elderly population in the whole social population increases with the decrease of the number of the young population and the increase of the number of the elderly population. In general, there are two reasons for the aging of the population: first, with the development of our economy and the effective implementation of family planning, the birth rate and death rate have all dropped by a large margin, and the proportion of the elderly population in the total number of people is increasing day by day; Second, with the development of urbanization, the high quality rural labor force is transferred to the city on a large scale, and the migration of the young and middle-aged makes the majority of the remaining migrants to be the elderly and minors, which intensifies the aging degree of the rural population. Agriculture, as an important basic production department and labor resource demand department of the national economy, occupies an important position in the national economy of Shandong Province. However, the rapid aging of the rural population will inevitably affect the supply of agricultural production labor. The social and economic development of Shandong Province will have a profound impact. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, a large number of young and middle-aged rural labor force flows into cities and towns, leaving the elderly to become the main force of rural agricultural production, in the case of low degree of agricultural mechanization, it will inevitably affect the development of local agriculture. This paper studies the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province from two different angles. The first is to study the evolution process of the aging of population age structure in China, the other is to study the impact of the aging of rural population on the agricultural economy in Shandong Province, and make a comprehensive analysis from theory and practice. In theoretical analysis, combined with the relevant economic growth theory, it is divided into two dimensions: short-term impact and long-term impact. In the empirical analysis, the impact of population aging on agricultural economy is tested by using the production function of Cobb-Dogra period. The main content of this paper. The first chapter is the introduction, including the research background, research purpose, research significance, research ideas and research content, as well as the possible innovations and deficiencies. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The theoretical basis is the review of population factors and economic growth. The literature review includes the literature review of agricultural economy and the literature review of population aging and economic growth. The third chapter analyzes the current situation and causes of population aging in Shandong Province. This chapter analyzes from four aspects: firstly, the definition of the concept of population aging, secondly, introduces the dynamic evolution process of population aging in China, and third, analyzes the current situation of rural population aging in Shandong Province. Then it explores the causes of the aging of rural population in Shandong Province, and finally summarizes the characteristics of the aging of rural population in Shandong Province. Chapter four is the normative analysis of the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. This chapter includes the following contents: the development stage and characteristics of agricultural production in Shandong Province, the short-term impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province, and the long-term impact of population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy in Shandong Province. This chapter makes an empirical analysis on the impact of aging on agricultural GDP, starting with the selection of models, setting variables, collecting data, and then analyzing the specific meaning according to the empirical results. The sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper, including the conclusions and policy recommendations for the further development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.6;F327;C924.24

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