發(fā)布時間：2018-06-04 02:53

  本文選題：流動人口 + 生育率水平��； 參考：《南京財經大學》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：眾所周知,我國在20世紀末完成了生育率的轉變,步入了低生育率水平的后生育轉變時期。許多研究表明,我國生育率的轉變主要歸功于我國經濟社會水平的發(fā)展和生育控制的雙重作用,經濟社會因素不僅對生育水平產生直接作用,而且還通過影響生育控制因素進而影響生育水平。與此同時,隨著我國城鄉(xiāng)二元結構的弱化和市場經濟的發(fā)展,大量的農村剩余勞動力從農村流向城市,我國的流動人口規(guī)模急劇擴張。人口流動作為一種社會變動過程,不僅包括人口在地理單元間的流動,還包含了由此所導致的社會經濟結構等諸多方面發(fā)生的變化。流動引起人們社會地位方面的變化,終將引起其生育行為的變化。另外,人口流動加速了社會經濟的發(fā)展,從而加快了經濟變量、社會變量影響生育行為的歷程。研究表明,我國流動人口的生育率水平低于其流出地的生育率水平,對其流出地的生育率水平存在下拉作用。從我國“生育率的空間差異”的視角,研究人口流動的特征對生育率的影響方式和程度,對當前我國人口的合理流動和生育率的穩(wěn)定都有著現(xiàn)實的指導意義。 根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的生育率理論和我國生育率轉變的實際,文章選取了5個表示流動人口特征的因素和3個表示生育控制的因素,構建了我國流動人口對生育水平影響的分析框架模型。由于第五次人口普查中有關流動人口特征的數(shù)據(jù)是基于遷入地的調查數(shù)據(jù),首先通過流動人口的遷移矩陣反推出基于流出地的遷移矩陣,進而以此為權重計算得到流出人口的人口特征。其次,由于所選取的指標之間存在不同程度的相關性,通過因子分析“降維”把多個指標分別綜合得到代表流動人口因素和生育控制因素的綜合指標,并計算出各省市的指標得分。然后,根據(jù)所構建的分析模型,運用多元線性回歸分析和多因素綜合路徑分析的思想,得到人口流動因素和生育控制因素對生育水平的直接影響以及人口流動因素所發(fā)揮的間接影響。結果表明,20世紀90年代末流動人口的頻繁流動對生育水平的下降有著顯著的影響,其影響程度大于同期的生育控制因素的影響。最后,運用結構方程理論,通過AMOS軟件計算出各個具體的流動人口特征因素對生育率水平下降的影響程度。結論發(fā)現(xiàn),在諸多流動人口特征因素中,流動人口流動率對生育率變動的影響最為顯著,其次是流動人口收入水平和流動人口中從事第二三產業(yè)的比重。 最后在對結論進行歸納之后,從人口流動和生育政策兩方面提出了建議。
[Abstract]:As we all know, China completed the fertility transition at the end of the 20th century and entered the post-fertility transition period of low fertility level. Many studies have shown that the transformation of the fertility rate in China is mainly due to the dual functions of the development of our country's economic and social level and fertility control, and that economic and social factors not only have a direct effect on the fertility level. It also affects fertility level by influencing fertility control factors. At the same time, with the weakening of urban-rural dual structure and the development of market economy, a large number of rural surplus labor flow from rural areas to cities, and the scale of floating population in China expands rapidly. As a process of social change, population mobility includes not only the movement of population among geographical units, but also the changes in social and economic structure. Mobility causes changes in people's social status and will eventually lead to changes in their reproductive behavior. In addition, population mobility accelerates the development of social economy, thus accelerates the process of economic variables, social variables affecting fertility behavior. The results show that the fertility level of floating population in China is lower than that of the outflow area, and there is a pull-down effect on the fertility level in the outflow area. From the perspective of "spatial difference of fertility" in China, it is of practical significance to study the influence of the characteristics of population mobility on fertility, which is of practical significance to the rational flow of population and the stability of fertility in China. According to the existing fertility theory and the reality of fertility transformation in China, this paper selects five factors representing the characteristics of floating population and three factors for fertility control, and constructs an analytical framework model of the impact of floating population on fertility level in China. Because the data on the characteristics of the floating population in the fifth census are based on the survey data of the place of migration, the migration matrix based on the outflow place is first derived through the migration matrix of the floating population. Then the population characteristics of the outflow population are calculated by using this as the weight. Secondly, because of the different degree of correlation between the selected indicators, through factor analysis "dimension reduction", we can get the comprehensive indicators representing the floating population factors and fertility control factors respectively. And calculate the index score of each province and city. Then, according to the analysis model, the idea of multivariate linear regression analysis and multi-factor comprehensive path analysis is used. The direct influence of population mobility factors and fertility control factors on fertility level and the indirect influence of population mobility factors are obtained. The results show that the frequent flow of floating population in the late 1990s has a significant effect on the decline of fertility level, and its influence degree is greater than that of fertility control factors in the same period. Finally, by using structural equation theory and AMOS software, the influence of specific characteristics of floating population on the decline of fertility level is calculated. The conclusion is that among the characteristics of the floating population, the floating population mobility rate has the most significant influence on the fertility rate, followed by the income level of the floating population and the proportion of the floating population engaged in the second and third industries. Finally, the conclusion is summarized and some suggestions are put forward from two aspects: population mobility and fertility policy.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 陶斯文;楊風;;人口流動對四川民族地區(qū)經濟社會發(fā)展的影響[J];安徽農業(yè)科學;2007年20期

2 胡書芝,羅憶源;社會失范:城市農民工的游民化傾向——武漢市農民工游民化問題調查[J];城市問題;2001年02期

3 彭良軍;;流動人口生育問題研究綜述[J];黑河學刊;2006年05期

4 周祖根,朱慈;上海流動人口狀況和特點[J];上海綜合經濟;1994年07期

5 楊云彥,徐映梅,向書堅;就業(yè)替代與勞動力流動:一個新的分析框架[J];經濟研究;2003年08期

6 周君玉;流動人口對農村社會發(fā)展的影響[J];南方人口;2000年03期

7 楊子慧;論流動人口的生育行為[J];人口與經濟;1991年03期

8 周皓;低生育率條件下的中國人口控制[J];人口與經濟;2000年05期

9 陳友華,陸建新;中國生育率的地區(qū)差異及其政策選擇[J];人口與經濟;2003年04期

10 周祖根;人口遷移流動與生育[J];人口學刊;1993年05期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 周江濤;1990年代中國經濟社會因素對生育水平的影響研究[D];華東師范大學;2008年

相關碩士學位論文 前2條

1 馬培津;外出務工對農民婚育行為的影響[D];安徽大學;2006年

2 雷敏;我國人口生育率影響因素的統(tǒng)計研究[D];天津財經大學;2008年

，

本文編號：1975546