本文選題：國際化大都市 + 西安��； 參考：《西安工業(yè)大學》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文研究的內(nèi)容是西安國際化大都市建設中的人口空間結構變動問題。通過說明西安人口空間分布的現(xiàn)狀,建立西安人口密度模型,分析西安國際化大都市建設期間的人口空間結構變動機制,預測未來十年可能出現(xiàn)的人口空間結構變動趨勢和形態(tài)。 文章的前兩章是緒論和研究綜述。緒論部分介紹研究背景、研究價值,界定概念和范疇,說明研究方法和技術路線。研究綜述對已有人口空間結構相關領域的研究成果和研究方法進行回顧和總結,認為相關研究可以從人口空間分布的預測、研究區(qū)域合適空間范圍的選擇、人口空間信息的挖掘等方面繼續(xù)深入研究。 主體是文章的第三至六章。其中第三章主要通過人口密度和人口重心兩個概念,介紹西安轄區(qū)內(nèi)人口空間分布的概況。通過繪制西安市區(qū)縣人口密度圖,表明西安人口密度最大區(qū)域是城六區(qū),尤以圍繞鐘樓的新城區(qū)、碑林區(qū)、蓮湖區(qū)人口密度最大。通過GIS9.2軟件找到西安主城區(qū)內(nèi)49個街區(qū)的幾何坐標,計算出西安市人口重心的位置在鐘樓東南方向的柏樹林街道。2000年到2009年間,西安市人口重心有向東北方向飄移的趨勢,主要是由于北部新中心、東北部瀘灞新區(qū)以及東部工業(yè)區(qū)近年來的人口增長量快于其他城區(qū)。 第四章借鑒了地理學對“空間”問題的分析方法,應用GIS軟件協(xié)助研究,通過對西安城區(qū)地圖進行以鐘樓為圓心的等距離環(huán)形切割,計算環(huán)帶內(nèi)斑塊面積和人口密度,實現(xiàn)了人口數(shù)據(jù)的空間化處理。對每個環(huán)帶進行人口密度計算后,得出六種類型的人口密度函數(shù)。六種模型的系數(shù)和擬合優(yōu)度都從不同層面透露出西安人口空間分布的特點,即西安人口空間分布目前依然符合單中心人口分布結構,但多中心的人口空間結構正在發(fā)育之中。通過比較,最后選擇擬合良好、參數(shù)最少、解釋力最強的Clark模型,作為當下西安人口空間分布特征和城市發(fā)展階段的表征。通過2000與2009年的各類模型擬合參數(shù)的變化,也可以對西安未來人口空間變動趨勢做出初步判斷,即存在明顯的人口梯度差下降和人口郊區(qū)化趨勢,多中心人口分布格局正在發(fā)育中。 第五章的研究內(nèi)容是分析西安國際化大都市建設中人口空間結構的變動機制。主要應用凱恩斯就業(yè)理論、經(jīng)濟增長理論、中心地理論、偏好與選擇等經(jīng)濟理論,應用馬克思政治經(jīng)濟學的抽象分析方法,對國際化大都市建設中影響人口空間結構變動的六大因素逐一進行分析。六大影響因素包括人口與就業(yè)的增加、居住成本的上升、通勤方式的改變、消費行為的變化、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局的改變、以及西安中心地等級提升等,它們分別對未來西安人口空間結構變動的方向、強度、遷移人口構成、以及新的人口空間結構的形成過程發(fā)揮作用,改變城市各區(qū)的人口年齡構成、行業(yè)構成、收入水平、消費能力等。 第六章應用綜合推理合成法,以第四章和第五章的研究結論為基礎,集合模型演繹和邏輯分析的結果,綜合分析了西安國際化大都市建設中的人口空間結構變動的演化過程,對西安未來五到十年內(nèi)的人口空間分布特征和人口空間活動特征進行預測,也可稱之為構想或設計,是論文的重要結論。 本文研究的長處在于既借鑒了地理學的方法進行數(shù)據(jù)觀察和模型比較,也運用經(jīng)濟學的方法進行因素分析和邏輯推理。因此可以認為,雖然西安市未來人口空間結構在必然性與偶然性的共同作用下,將有各種變動可能性,但在本研究所做的假設前提下,相關研究結論的可信度較大。對模擬未來真實人口空間結構形態(tài)的變動過程,進而為政策制定提供人口空間結構方面的參考依據(jù),具有一定的價值。
[Abstract]:The content of this paper is the change of the spatial structure of the population in the construction of Xi'an's international metropolis. By explaining the status of the spatial distribution of the population in Xi'an, establishing the population density model of Xi'an, analyzing the change mechanism of the spatial structure of the population during the construction of the international metropolis in Xi'an, and pretesting the possible demographic changes in the population in the next ten years. Dynamic trends and forms.
The first two chapters of the article are introduction and research review. The introduction introduces the research background, the value, the definition and category, and explains the research method and technical route. The research review reviews and summarizes the research results and methods in the areas related to the population spatial structure, and considers that the related research can be previewed from the spatial distribution of the population. The area of suitable space in the study area is selected, and the mining of population spatial information is further studied.
The main body is the third to six chapters of the article. In third chapters, the population density and the population center of gravity are introduced in the third chapters. The population density distribution in the Xi'an area is introduced. By drawing the population density map of the district and county of Xi'an, the largest area of the population density in Xi'an is the city six, especially in the new city of the bell tower, the forest of Steles and the population of the Lotus Lake District. The geometric coordinates of 49 blocks in the main city of Xi'an are found through the software of GIS9.2. It is calculated that the center of gravity of the population of Xi'an is in the south of the bell tower in the southeast of the cypress forest street from.2000 to 2009. The population gravity center of Xi'an has a tendency to drift north-east, mainly from the north new center, the Northeast Luba new area and the East. The population growth in the industrial area is faster than that in other urban areas in recent years.
The fourth chapter draws on the analysis method of geography to the "space" problem, and uses GIS software to help the research. Through the circular cutting with the bell tower as the center of the center of the bell tower, the area of patch and population density in the belt are calculated, and the spatial distribution of population data is realized. After the calculation of population density for each belt, the population density is calculated. There are six types of population density function. The coefficients and goodness of fit of the six models reveal the characteristics of the spatial distribution of Xi'an population from different levels. That is, the spatial distribution of the population in Xi'an still conforms to the single center population distribution structure, but the spatial structure of the multi center population is being bred. The Clark model with the least parameter and the strongest explanatory power is used as the characterization of the spatial distribution of Xi'an population and the development stage of the city. Through the change of the fitting parameters of various models in 2000 and 2009, it can also make a preliminary judgement on the future trend of the population spatial change in Xi'an, namely, the decline of the population gradient and the suburbanization of population. Trend, multi center population distribution pattern is developing.
The fifth chapter is to analyze the change mechanism of the spatial structure of the population in the construction of Xi'an's international metropolis. It mainly applies Keynes's employment theory, economic growth theory, central ground theory, preference and choice and other economic theories, and applies the abstract analysis method of Marx's political economy to influence the population space in the construction of international metropolis. The six factors of the inter structural changes are analyzed one by one. The six major factors include the increase in population and employment, the rise in the living cost, the change of the commuter mode, the change in the consumption behavior, the change of the industrial layout, and the upgrading of the Xi'an central level, which are respectively the direction, intensity and migration of the changes in the spatial structure of the population in Xi'an, respectively. The composition of the population, as well as the formation of a new population space structure, plays a role in changing the age composition of the population, the composition of the industry, the level of income, and the consumption capacity of the urban areas.
The sixth chapter, based on the results of the fourth and fifth chapters, combines the results of the fourth and the fifth chapters, and analyzes the evolution process of the changes in the spatial structure of the population in the construction of the Xi'an international metropolis, and the spatial distribution characteristics and the population space activities of the population in the next five to ten years in the next five to ten years. Feature prediction is also an important conclusion of the paper.
The advantages of this study are not only using geographical methods for data observation and model comparison, but also using economic methods for factor analysis and logical reasoning. Therefore, it can be considered that the future population spatial structure of Xi'an will have various possibilities under the joint action of inevitability and contingency, but in this research institute On the premise of the hypothesis, the reliability of the related research conclusions is greater. It is of certain value to simulate the change process of the spatial structure form of the real population in the future, and then provide the reference basis for the policy formulation of the population spatial structure.
【學位授予單位】：西安工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C922.2

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