本文選題：遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶 + 可持續(xù)的人口發(fā)展　； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 人口的發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境狀況、經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展水平密不可分。可持續(xù)的人口發(fā)展應(yīng)該是與資源環(huán)境的承載狀況和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展水平相一致的。本文的研究目的是界定遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶適宜可持續(xù)發(fā)展的人口規(guī)模和人口分布,保障遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的順利實(shí)施,促進(jìn)這一地區(qū)人口經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)資源的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文利用主成分分析法,回歸分析等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法,結(jié)合各地的實(shí)際情況,對(duì)遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的資源環(huán)境承載力和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展水平做了評(píng)價(jià),從評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果來(lái)看,可以認(rèn)定遼寧沿海帶屬于人口集聚區(qū),未來(lái)人口的發(fā)展會(huì)是一個(gè)集聚的過(guò)程,并且利用聚類方法對(duì)遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的人口集聚區(qū)進(jìn)行了細(xì)分研究。 在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)承載力理論,結(jié)合搜集到的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),本文測(cè)算了遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶目前和2020年的森林承載力、水資源承載力、建設(shè)用地承載力和教育承載力,并最終得出這一地區(qū)人口發(fā)展的上限。 最后,根據(jù)柯布——道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù),借助Eviews計(jì)量軟件,本文建立了遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶GDP與社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資、勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量、科技活動(dòng)經(jīng)費(fèi)支出的回歸模型,預(yù)測(cè)了2020年遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和經(jīng)濟(jì)需求人口數(shù)量,明確了2020經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所需要達(dá)到的人口規(guī)模。從結(jié)果來(lái)看,到2020年,遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展穩(wěn)定快速,GDP年均增長(zhǎng)率接近或超過(guò)10%,相應(yīng)的人口也會(huì)有較快的增長(zhǎng),高于這一地區(qū)以往的人口增長(zhǎng)率。 比較2020年遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的綜合人口承載力和經(jīng)濟(jì)需求人口,可以發(fā)現(xiàn),到2020年遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的資源環(huán)境及社會(huì)狀況能夠承載快速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)。遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶的適宜可持續(xù)發(fā)展的人口規(guī)模應(yīng)該在這一地區(qū)的承載力和經(jīng)濟(jì)需求人口之間,即337萬(wàn)到431萬(wàn)之間。個(gè)別的市區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)需求人口大于承載力人口,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)人口發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境狀況之間出現(xiàn)矛盾,這種情況會(huì)影響該地區(qū)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。針對(duì)研究結(jié)果,本文最后給出了促進(jìn)人口資源環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:The development of population and resources and environment, economic and social development level is inseparable. Sustainable population development should be consistent with the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the level of economic and social development. The purpose of this paper is to define the population scale and population distribution of Liaoning coastal economic belt suitable for sustainable development, to ensure the smooth implementation of the development strategy of Liaoning coastal economic belt, and to promote the sustainable development of population, economy and social resources in this area. In this paper, the principal component analysis, regression analysis and other econometric methods are used to evaluate the carrying capacity of resources and environment and the level of economic and social development of Liaoning coastal economic belt. It can be concluded that Liaoning coastal zone belongs to the population agglomeration area, and the future population development will be a process of agglomeration, and the population agglomeration area of Liaoning coastal economic belt is subdivided by cluster method. On this basis, using the theory of dynamic bearing capacity and the relevant data collected, this paper calculates the forest carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, construction land carrying capacity and education carrying capacity of Liaoning coastal economic belt at present and 2020. Finally, the upper limit of population development in this area is obtained. Finally, according to Cobb-Douglas production function and with the help of Eviews software, this paper establishes a regression model of GDP and social fixed asset investment, labor force quantity and expenditure of science and technology activities in Liaoning coastal economic belt. The economic development and population demand of Liaoning coastal economic belt in 2020 are forecasted, and the population scale of 2020 economic development is defined. From the result, by 2020, the economic development of Liaoning coastal economic belt is stable and fast, the annual GDP growth rate of Liaoning coastal economic belt is close to or over 10 percent, the corresponding population will also have a relatively fast growth rate, which is higher than the population growth rate of this area in the past. By comparing the comprehensive population carrying capacity and economic demand population of Liaoning coastal economic belt in 2020, it can be found that the resources, environment and social conditions of Liaoning coastal economic belt can carry a rapidly developing economy by 2020. The population size of Liaoning coastal economic belt suitable for sustainable development should be between the carrying capacity of this area and the population of economic needs, that is, between 3.37 million and 4.31 million. The economic demand of individual urban areas is larger than the carrying capacity population, and the contradiction between the economic and social population development and the resource and environmental conditions will affect the sustainable development of the area. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of population, resources, environment and economy are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 郝娜;遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶人力資源優(yōu)化配置研究[D];遼寧師范大學(xué);2011年

2 楊志昂;遼寧沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)帶與地方高校學(xué)科建設(shè)的互動(dòng)研究[D];大連交通大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：1946708