本文選題：中國 + 印度　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國和印度同為世界上的人口大國,又因經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速而備受矚目。做為亞洲兩個新興的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,兩國在未來世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中將扮演重要角色,但由于兩國人口現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢不同,對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響也不一樣,因此,比較中印兩國人口對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 目前中國現(xiàn)有人口13.5億,是勞動力資源第一大國。但由于中國生育水平的下降,居民的生活條件開始改善,衛(wèi)生醫(yī)療水平逐漸提高,因此人均預(yù)期壽命逐年延長,我國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)開始向老年型轉(zhuǎn)變。根據(jù)聯(lián)合國預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù),中國勞動力人口高峰將在2020年出現(xiàn),隨后勞動力年齡人口開始持續(xù)下降。人口總數(shù)的高峰預(yù)計是2033年前后,隨后人口總數(shù)開始減少。老齡化是目前我國人口的主要特點,老齡化使勞動力資源減少,因此在未來將會成為制約我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個重要因素。 與中國相比,印度的人口在未來的發(fā)展?jié)摿Ψ矫娓邇?yōu)勢。印度自獨立之后,人口始終保持增長的態(tài)勢,并且印度的人口控制政策推行過程曲折,力度與效果都不及中國的計劃生育政策,因此印度的生育水下降幅度不大。依據(jù)聯(lián)合國的預(yù)測,印度總?cè)丝趯⒃?050年超過16億,在2030年之后超過中國成為人口第一大國。此外印度的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)比中國年輕,勞動力供給從長發(fā)展趨勢看較中國更充足,這也是國外專家看好未來印度經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展前景的原因。 兩國未來仍然是世界上人口最多的兩個國家。印度將在2030年前后在人口總數(shù)和勞動年齡人口數(shù)目上超過中國。中國已經(jīng)步入老齡化社會,未來老齡化程度將會不斷加深,因此印度人口的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)比中國要年輕得多。兩國同為勞動力資源最豐富的國家,勞動力素質(zhì)也是各有特點。中國的勞動力素質(zhì)整體要高于印度,但是印度的高等教育質(zhì)量特別是信息科技方面的人才舉世聞名。 由于兩國同屬發(fā)展中國家,勞動力資源優(yōu)勢明顯,在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展格局中,在低勞動力成本的初級產(chǎn)品加工業(yè)方面具有競爭優(yōu)勢。因此在未來兩國的發(fā)展與競爭中,我國要盡量避免不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的因素,采取有利于長期發(fā)展的對策。首先就是要加強教育事業(yè)的建設(shè),提高勞動者的素質(zhì)；其次就是要完善社會保障制度,轉(zhuǎn)移農(nóng)村剩余勞動力；最后就是要適時放寬生育政策應(yīng)對未來勞動力縮減的危機。
[Abstract]:China and India are both the most populous countries in the world, and have attracted much attention for their rapid economic development. As two emerging economies in Asia, the two countries will play an important role in the development of the world economy in the future. However, due to the difference in population status and development trends between the two countries, the impact on economic development is also different. It is of practical significance to compare the impact of Chinese and Indian population on economic development. At present, China has a population of 1.35 billion, and is the largest country in labor resources. However, due to the decline of the fertility level in China, the living conditions of the residents began to improve, and the level of health care gradually improved, so the life expectancy per capita increased year by year, and the age structure of the population in China began to change to the old type. China's labor force will peak in 2020, according to United Nations projections, followed by a steady decline in the working-age population. The population is expected to peak around 2033 and then begin to decline. Aging is the main characteristic of our country's population at present. The aging makes the labor force resources decrease, so it will become an important factor restricting the economic development of our country in the future. India's population has an advantage over China in terms of its future development potential. Since the independence of India, the population has always maintained a growing trend, and India's population control policy implementation process twists and turns, the strength and effectiveness of China's one-child policy, so India's reproductive water decline is not much. India's population will exceed 1.6 billion by 2050 and overtake China as the largest by 2030, according to United Nations projections. In addition, the age structure of India is younger than that of China, and the labor supply is more abundant than that of China in the long run, which is why foreign experts are optimistic about the prospects of India's economic development in the future. The two countries will remain the two most populous countries in the world. India will surpass China in terms of population and working-age population around 2030. China is already in an aging society, and the future is going to get deeper, so the age structure of India's population is much younger than that of China. Both countries are rich in labor resources, and the quality of labor force has its own characteristics. China's overall workforce is better than India's, but India's higher education quality, especially in information technology, is world famous. Because the two countries belong to the developing countries, the advantages of labor resources are obvious, in the pattern of world economic development, they have the competitive advantage in the low labor cost primary product processing industry. Therefore, in the future development and competition between the two countries, our country should try to avoid the factors that are not conducive to economic development, and take countermeasures conducive to long-term development. First, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of education, to improve the quality of workers; secondly, to improve the social security system, transfer rural surplus labor force; finally, to relax the birth policy to cope with the crisis of labor reduction in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C924.24;C924.351

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