本文選題：匹配關系 + 空間分布　； 參考：《曲阜師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口與經(jīng)濟之間的關系是區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的核心問題。人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布一致表現(xiàn)為區(qū)域均衡發(fā)展,人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布不一致表現(xiàn)為區(qū)域不均衡發(fā)展。適度的不匹配可以促進區(qū)域要素流動,提升區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展效率,不匹配程度過高則會對區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生不利影響。山東省是我國的人口、經(jīng)濟大省,研究其人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布及其對應關系,剖析影響兩要素空間分布關系的因素,提出相應對策建議,旨在為政府決策提供參考,指導制定人口與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展規(guī)劃,對區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。本研究以山東省17地市為研究對象,首先通過與其它人口或經(jīng)濟大省相比較,宏觀說明山東省常住人口、經(jīng)濟的空間分布形勢,再用增長速度、密度指標和地理集中度分別對2000-2015年山東省常住人口、經(jīng)濟的空間格局演變進行研究。比較人口與經(jīng)濟分布狀況,基本判斷山東省人口與經(jīng)濟的空間匹配關系;構建人口與經(jīng)濟空間不匹配指數(shù),具體分析山東省人口與經(jīng)濟空間匹配關系的區(qū)域狀況和時間變化趨勢;進一步探討山東省人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布關系的影響因素,并提出對策建議以改善常住人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布匹配關系。根據(jù)上述研究,結果表明,山東省常住人口分布的不均衡性比廣東、河南、四川小,青島、濟南等膠濟鐵路沿線地區(qū)常住人口增長較快,西南密集東北稀疏的人口分布格局仍未改變,人口向濟南、棗莊、青島和淄博等不斷集中。山東省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展相對差異程度比廣東、江蘇、浙江較小,人均經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的地區(qū)差異性卻較明顯;2000年以來山東省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長速度普遍減慢,經(jīng)濟空間格局基本沒有變化,經(jīng)濟集中在膠濟青榮沿線和東部沿海地區(qū),地區(qū)經(jīng)濟并未發(fā)生跨越式發(fā)展。由此可見,山東省常住人口與經(jīng)濟空間分布不匹配。根據(jù)人口與經(jīng)濟空間不匹配指數(shù)大小,將17地市分為經(jīng)濟超前區(qū)、相對匹配區(qū)、經(jīng)濟滯后區(qū)三種類型。經(jīng)濟超前區(qū)范圍不變,零散分布在半島丘陵區(qū)、黃河三角洲和魯中地區(qū);經(jīng)濟滯后區(qū)范圍減小,主要分布在魯西北和魯南地區(qū);濱州、濟寧、泰安由經(jīng)濟滯后區(qū)成為相對匹配區(qū),相對匹配區(qū)的范圍擴大并介于前兩類地區(qū)之間;從時間序列上看,無論是各類型區(qū)還是山東省,常住人口與經(jīng)濟空間不匹配程度有所降低。山東省人口與經(jīng)濟空間不匹配是多種因素共同作用的結果,主要有自然條件和歷史因素、人口流動壁壘、城鎮(zhèn)化水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構狀況、市場機制作用、區(qū)域發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略與政府支持力度。因此,為推進山東省人口與經(jīng)濟分布匹配發(fā)展,可考慮以下策略:打破人口流動壁壘,促進人口合理流動;推進新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程,落實城鎮(zhèn)服務工作;完善市場機制,有效配置區(qū)域生產(chǎn)要素;合理推進產(chǎn)業(yè)梯度轉(zhuǎn)移,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結構與布局;充分發(fā)揮政府作用與適度實行區(qū)域偏向性政策。
[Abstract]:The relationship between population and economy is the core problem of regional sustainable development. The spatial distribution of population and economy is consistent with regional balanced development, and the spatial distribution of population and economy is not consistent with regional unbalanced development. Moderate mismatch can promote the flow of regional elements and improve the efficiency of regional economic development. If the degree of mismatch is too high, it will have a negative impact on regional sustainable development. Shandong Province is a large province of population and economy in China. This paper studies the spatial distribution of population and economy and its corresponding relationship, analyzes the factors influencing the spatial distribution of the two elements, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions in order to provide a reference for the government to make decisions. Guiding the formulation of population and economic development plans is of great significance to regional coordination and sustainable development. This study takes 17 cities of Shandong Province as the research object. Firstly, by comparing with other large population or economic provinces, the paper shows the spatial distribution situation of the resident population and economy in Shandong Province, and then uses the growth rate. Density index and geographical concentration degree were used to study the spatial pattern evolution of resident population and economy in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015. By comparing the distribution of population and economy, we basically judge the spatial matching relationship between population and economy in Shandong Province, and construct the spatial mismatch index between population and economy. The paper analyzes the regional situation and time change trend of spatial matching relationship between population and economy in Shandong Province, and further discusses the influencing factors of spatial distribution between population and economy in Shandong Province. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the matching relationship between resident population and economic spatial distribution. According to the above study, the results show that the distribution of resident population in Shandong Province is growing faster than that in Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan, Qingdao, Jinan and other areas along the Jiaoji Railway. The sparse population distribution pattern in the dense northeast of southwest China remains unchanged, and the population is concentrated in Jinan, Zaozhuang, Qingdao and Zibo. The relative differences in economic development in Shandong Province are smaller than those in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, but the regional differences in the level of per capita economic development are relatively obvious. Since 2000, the growth rate of the regional economy in Shandong Province has generally slowed down, and the economic spatial pattern has basically not changed. The economy is concentrated along Jiaoji Qingrong and the eastern coastal areas, and the regional economy has not developed by leaps and bounds. Thus, Shandong Province resident population and economic spatial distribution does not match. According to the size of population and economic spatial mismatch index, 17 cities are divided into three types: economic advance area, relative matching area and economic lag area. The scope of the economic advance zone remains unchanged and is scattered in the hilly peninsula region, the Yellow River Delta and the central Shandong region; the economic lag area decreases, mainly in the northwest and southern Shandong regions; and in Binzhou, Jining, Taian becomes the relative matching area from the economic lag area, the scope of the relative matching area is expanded and lies between the first two types of areas, and in terms of time series, whether in each type of area or Shandong Province, the degree of permanent resident population and economic space mismatch has been reduced. The mismatch between population and economic space in Shandong Province is the result of many factors, such as natural conditions and historical factors, population flow barriers, urbanization level, industrial structure and market mechanism. Regional development strategy and government support. Therefore, in order to promote the matching development of population and economic distribution in Shandong Province, the following strategies can be considered: to break down the barriers of population flow, to promote the rational flow of population, to promote the process of new urbanization, to implement urban services, and to perfect the market mechanism. Effective allocation of regional factors of production; rational promotion of industrial gradient transfer, optimization of industrial structure and layout; give full play to the role of the government and the appropriate implementation of regional bias policy.
【學位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127;C924.2

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