本文選題：人口結(jié)構(gòu) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展�。� 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題是21世紀(jì)中國(guó)人口的核心問(wèn)題。在計(jì)劃生育政策的作用下，我國(guó)的人口轉(zhuǎn)變表現(xiàn)為：人口總量大，發(fā)展水平低，轉(zhuǎn)變速度快，時(shí)間短。這種轉(zhuǎn)變會(huì)影響人口結(jié)構(gòu)的均衡協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。在提倡可持續(xù)發(fā)展觀的背景下，人口結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展的程度影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。而區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也同樣影響著區(qū)域人口結(jié)構(gòu)。 本文首先具體分析了湖南省人口結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，發(fā)現(xiàn)湖南人口結(jié)構(gòu)整體現(xiàn)狀發(fā)展水平不高，區(qū)域人口結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展差異明顯。其次采用模糊多因素綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法構(gòu)建了人口結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展的模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型，對(duì)湖南省1995－2010年人口結(jié)構(gòu)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)及2010年湖南各市州人口結(jié)構(gòu)截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了人口結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展程度的模糊綜合評(píng)判，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明湖南省整體人口結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展程度水平較低，處于初級(jí)均衡階段。2010年湖南區(qū)域人口結(jié)構(gòu)均衡發(fā)展程度存在差異，長(zhǎng)沙及株洲處于人口結(jié)構(gòu)中級(jí)均衡的發(fā)展階段，其他12個(gè)市州處于人口結(jié)構(gòu)初級(jí)均衡的發(fā)展階段。再次借鑒物理學(xué)中耦合度函數(shù)構(gòu)建了人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型，從省級(jí)層面及地級(jí)市層面對(duì)湖南人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)程度進(jìn)行了測(cè)度，測(cè)度結(jié)果表明湖南省人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展耦合協(xié)調(diào)度從1995年到2010年，呈現(xiàn)出階段性特征明顯、總體不斷增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)，人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展耦合協(xié)調(diào)程度經(jīng)歷了由初級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)到良好協(xié)調(diào)的發(fā)展過(guò)程。從地級(jí)市層面看，湖南區(qū)域人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度在時(shí)空發(fā)展上具有一定的階段性和區(qū)域性。湖南14地級(jí)市人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度區(qū)域差異明顯，，協(xié)調(diào)類型兩極分化情況嚴(yán)重。最后根據(jù)前文實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，提出促進(jìn)人口結(jié)構(gòu)自身均衡發(fā)展、人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Population structure is the core of Chinese population in the 21 st century. Under the action of family planning policy, the population transformation of our country is as follows: the total population is large, the level of development is low, the speed of transition is fast and the time is short. This change will affect the balanced and coordinated development of the population structure. Under the background of advocating sustainable development view, the degree of balanced development of population structure affects the development of regional economy. The development of regional economy also affects the regional population structure. Firstly, this paper analyzes the present situation of population structure development in Hunan province, and finds out that the development level of Hunan population structure is not high, and the difference of regional population structure development is obvious. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the balanced development of population structure is constructed by using the fuzzy multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. In this paper, the population structure time series data of Hunan Province from 1995 to 2010 and the population structure cross-section data from the cities and states of Hunan Province in 2010 are evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the degree of balanced development of population structure. The empirical results show that the level of population structure equilibrium in Hunan Province is low, and it is in the primary equilibrium stage. In 2010, there are differences in the level of population structure equilibrium in Hunan Province, while Changsha and Zhuzhou are in the middle stage of population structure equilibrium development. The other 12 municipal states are in the primary equilibrium stage of population structure development. The coupling degree model of population structure and economic development is constructed by using the coupling degree function of physics for reference, and the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and economic development in Hunan is measured from provincial level and prefectural level. The results show that the degree of coordination between population structure and economic development in Hunan Province from 1995 to 2010 shows a phase characteristic, and the overall trend is increasing. The coupling and coordination of population structure and economic development has experienced the development process from primary coordination to good coordination. From the level of prefecture-level city, the coordination degree of regional population structure and economy in Hunan has certain stages and regions in space-time development. There are obvious regional differences in the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and economic development in 14 prefectural cities of Hunan Province, and the polarization of coordination types is serious. Finally, according to the results of the previous empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the balanced development of the population structure and the harmonious development of the population structure and the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F127;F224

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