本文選題：生育意愿 + 增城市��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口控制是實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展是核心問(wèn)題。本研究從一個(gè)新的系統(tǒng)工程視角,通過(guò)對(duì)增城市市民的生育意愿調(diào)查,運(yùn)用社會(huì)學(xué)、人口學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論和方法,探討增城市市民的生育意愿現(xiàn)狀,分析其影響因素,并提出有效統(tǒng)籌解決人口問(wèn)題的政策建議。從而引導(dǎo)群眾優(yōu)化生育意愿,科學(xué)生育,實(shí)現(xiàn)人口資源的科學(xué)發(fā)展。 全文共分為六部分:第一部分闡述選題的現(xiàn)實(shí)及理論意義,明確文章的研究思路和方法。第二部分對(duì)課題研究的幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵概念——生育意愿、生育觀、生育文化、低生育水平、更替水平、總和生育率、出生人口性別比、人口老齡化、人口撫養(yǎng)比、人口再生產(chǎn)、人口再生產(chǎn)慣性、人口金字塔、人口紅利、我國(guó)的三次出生人口高峰等進(jìn)行界定,明確概念的內(nèi)涵與外延;同時(shí)了解生育意愿對(duì)人口控制政策的作用和國(guó)外人口控制領(lǐng)域?qū)ι庠傅倪\(yùn)用;以便于論文的進(jìn)一步開(kāi)展。第三部分對(duì)增城市市民生育意愿的調(diào)查。首先通過(guò)目前對(duì)生育意愿的研究維度、因素設(shè)計(jì)生育意愿調(diào)查問(wèn)卷,在全市范圍內(nèi)向不同層次的群體進(jìn)行問(wèn)卷調(diào)查,進(jìn)而分析出生育意愿現(xiàn)狀及與其相關(guān)的因素。第四部分分析出增城市市民生育意愿現(xiàn)狀和形成原因。第五部分從生育意愿調(diào)查討論增城市未來(lái)人口發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。采用增城市第五次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)為基數(shù)分別按現(xiàn)行政策(1.5孩)和采取問(wèn)卷綜合后得出生育意愿平均數(shù)(1.88孩)利用CPPS2008人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件預(yù)測(cè)增城市未來(lái)40年人口狀況。第六部分通過(guò)對(duì)市民生育意愿現(xiàn)狀、形成原因及未來(lái)人口態(tài)勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上提出統(tǒng)籌解決人口問(wèn)題的結(jié)論與建議。應(yīng)該制定科學(xué)的社會(huì)發(fā)展綱要和人口控制目標(biāo),同時(shí)了解群眾的生育意愿,根據(jù)生育意愿的成因,采取有效措施,引導(dǎo)群眾優(yōu)化生育意愿,自覺(jué)地達(dá)到增長(zhǎng)人口和減少人口的目的,這比強(qiáng)制措施更好、更讓人接受、更有效,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)人口資源的科學(xué)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Population control is the core problem to realize sustainable development. From a new system engineering point of view, through the investigation of Zengcheng citizens' fertility intention, using the relevant theories and methods of sociology, demography and economics, the present situation of Zengcheng citizens' fertility will be discussed, and the influencing factors are analyzed. And put forward effective overall solution to the population problem policy recommendations. Thus guiding the masses to optimize fertility will, scientific fertility, to achieve the scientific development of population resources. The thesis is divided into six parts: the first part expounds the practical and theoretical significance of the topic, and clarifies the research ideas and methods. In the second part, the key concepts of the research are fertility intention, fertility view, fertility culture, low fertility level, replacement level, total fertility rate, sex ratio of birth population, population aging, population dependency ratio, population reproduction. The inertia of population reproduction, the pyramid of population, the dividend of population, the peak of the population of three births in our country are defined, and the connotation and extension of the concept are clarified. At the same time, we understand the effect of fertility intention on population control policy and the application of fertility intention in the field of population control in foreign countries, so as to facilitate the further development of the paper. The third part of the Zengcheng City, the survey of the desire for fertility. First of all, through the current research dimension of fertility intention, factors design fertility intention questionnaire, in the whole city to different levels of groups questionnaire survey, and then analyze the status quo of fertility will and related factors. The fourth part analyzes the present situation and reasons of Zengcheng city's fertility intention. The fifth part discusses the future population development trend of Zengcheng city from fertility intention investigation. Using the fifth census data of Zengcheng city as the base, according to the current policy, respectively, and adopting the questionnaire to get the average of 1.88 children.) using CPPS2008 population forecast software to predict the population situation of Zengcheng city in the next 40 years. In the sixth part, the author puts forward the conclusion and suggestion of solving the population problem on the basis of forecasting the present situation, the cause and the future population situation of the citizen's fertility intention. We should formulate a scientific outline for social development and population control goals, and at the same time understand the fertility wishes of the masses, and take effective measures to guide the masses to optimize their fertility intentions according to the causes of their fertility wishes. It is better, more acceptable and more effective to achieve the goal of population growth and population reduction than coercive measures, so as to realize the scientific development of population resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 段曉婧;內(nèi)蒙古包頭市“80后”已婚人群生育意愿研究[D];陜西師范大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：1886038