本文選題：人口紅利 + 勞動(dòng)參與率��； 參考：《西南政法大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口紅利作為重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)推動(dòng)力量，為我國(guó)改革開放以后經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展做出了重要貢獻(xiàn)。我國(guó)老年人口比重在2001年就已經(jīng)達(dá)到了人口老齡化指標(biāo)7%的臨界值，進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)后該指標(biāo)持續(xù)上漲，我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)已轉(zhuǎn)變進(jìn)入后“人口紅利”期。保持高水平的勞動(dòng)參與率是人口紅利效應(yīng)發(fā)揮作用的重要前提，然而我國(guó)目前最新勞動(dòng)參與率現(xiàn)狀如何，其水平是否合理，在人口紅利日漸減少的情況下如何通過勞動(dòng)參與方面的政策進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控，基于勞動(dòng)參與率的人口紅利效應(yīng)是否已經(jīng)得到最大化釋放等問題均有待進(jìn)一步解答。本文帶著這些問題，對(duì)我國(guó)的勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重、人口負(fù)擔(dān)系數(shù)和勞動(dòng)參與率等人口紅利相關(guān)指標(biāo)做了系統(tǒng)的梳理分析，，并采用面板經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)勞動(dòng)參與率的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)做了實(shí)證研究。 通過對(duì)我國(guó)過去30多年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)梳理，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：勞動(dòng)年齡人口數(shù)量持續(xù)增加，但勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重卻在2010年達(dá)到頂峰后開始呈現(xiàn)出下降趨勢(shì)；老年人口數(shù)量及其占總?cè)丝诒戎卦谶^去相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間里一直保持緩慢上升的態(tài)勢(shì)，但盡管我國(guó)老年撫養(yǎng)比呈現(xiàn)出持續(xù)的緩慢上升過程，在少兒撫養(yǎng)比較大降幅的強(qiáng)力拉動(dòng)下，總撫養(yǎng)比整體上仍然保持了一個(gè)持續(xù)下降的趨勢(shì)；綜合過去30多年人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變數(shù)據(jù)，不難預(yù)測(cè)我國(guó)將在2030年-2035年之間達(dá)到人口紅利與人口負(fù)債的關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。 在1990-2012年期間，我國(guó)年均勞動(dòng)參與率水平保持在75.46%的高水平。西部地區(qū)的勞動(dòng)參與率高于東部和中部地區(qū)，雖然目前總勞動(dòng)參與率以及分性別的勞動(dòng)參與率在國(guó)際上均較高于高收入國(guó)家，但是整體上勞動(dòng)參與率尤其是女性勞動(dòng)參與率呈現(xiàn)出明顯的下降趨勢(shì)�；诮�(jīng)驗(yàn)面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)勞動(dòng)參與率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有正向促進(jìn)作用，其人口紅利效應(yīng)較為明顯，其中中部地區(qū)勞動(dòng)參與率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)作用最大，西部和東部次之。因此，我國(guó)宏觀政策應(yīng)著重于提高勞動(dòng)參與率來最大化釋放人口紅利效應(yīng)，鑒于目前我國(guó)勞動(dòng)參與率保持在較高水平，通過勞動(dòng)參與率來提高人口紅利效應(yīng)的政策在短期內(nèi)效果有限，應(yīng)積極采取提高人力資本積累水平、完善計(jì)劃生育政策和加強(qiáng)勞動(dòng)力在區(qū)域間有效流動(dòng)等措施。
[Abstract]:As an important driving force of economic growth, demographic dividend has made an important contribution to the rapid economic development after China's reform and opening up. In 2001, the proportion of the elderly population in China has reached the critical value of 7% of the population aging index. After entering the 21st century, the index has continued to rise, and the population structure of our country has changed into the post-" demographic dividend "period. Maintaining a high level of labor participation rate is an important prerequisite for the effect of demographic dividend. However, what is the current situation of the latest labor force participation rate in China, and whether its level is reasonable or not? In the case of declining population dividend, how to carry out macro-control through the policy of labor participation, whether the effect of demographic dividend based on labor participation rate has been maximized has to be further answered. With these problems, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the relevant indicators of the demographic dividend, such as the proportion of the working-age population, the population burden coefficient and the labor force participation rate. Using panel empirical data, this paper makes an empirical study on the economic growth effect of labor force participation rate in China. By combing the statistics of our country in the past 30 years, this paper finds that the number of working-age population increases continuously, but the proportion of working-age population begins to decrease after reaching its peak in 2010; The number of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population have been increasing slowly in the past quite long time, but although the old age dependency ratio of our country has shown a continuous slow rising process, under the strong pull of the relatively big drop of the children's upbringing, the number of the elderly population and its proportion in the total population have been increasing slowly for a long time. The total dependency ratio as a whole has maintained a continuous downward trend, and it is not difficult to predict the key turning point of demographic dividend and population debt between 2030 and 2035 by synthesizing the data of population age structure transformation in the past 30 years or so. From 1990 to 2012, the average annual labor participation rate in China remained at a high level of 75.46%. The labour force participation rate in the western region is higher than that in the eastern and central regions, although at present the overall labour force participation rate, as well as the gender labour force participation rate, is higher internationally than in high-income countries, However, the overall labor force participation rate, especially the female labor force participation rate, shows an obvious downward trend. The empirical results based on empirical panel data show that the labor force participation rate has a positive effect on economic growth, and its demographic dividend effect is more obvious, in which the central region labor force participation rate has the greatest role in promoting economic growth. The west and east came second. Therefore, the macro policy of our country should focus on increasing the labor force participation rate to maximize the effect of releasing the demographic dividend. In view of the fact that the labor force participation rate in our country is maintained at a relatively high level at present, The policy of increasing the effect of demographic dividend through labor participation rate has limited effect in the short term. Measures should be taken to improve the level of human capital accumulation, improve the policy of family planning and strengthen the effective flow of labor force among regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F249.2;C924.24

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