本文選題：人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) + 高等教育結(jié)構(gòu)��； 參考：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2004年以來，我國房價(jià)出現(xiàn)了全國性上漲，幅度大、范圍廣。住房是百姓生活的必需品，然而，現(xiàn)有的“高房價(jià)”已經(jīng)成為非常嚴(yán)峻的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問題和民生問題，“買房難”成為人們生活面對(duì)最主要的困難之一。學(xué)者們從不同的角度：土地制度、貨幣制度、投機(jī)以及城鎮(zhèn)化等提出對(duì)推動(dòng)我國住宅市場(chǎng)的迅猛發(fā)展的多種解釋，但未有統(tǒng)一的結(jié)論。本文試圖從人口結(jié)構(gòu)的角度來解釋房價(jià)快速上漲的原因，其中，人口結(jié)構(gòu)特指人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和教育結(jié)構(gòu)。 本文認(rèn)為受過高等教育的青年是購買住宅欲望最為強(qiáng)烈的人群。因?yàn)楫厴I(yè)后，往往意味著要留在城市工作和生活，，擁有自己的住所則是最有歸屬感的體現(xiàn)。如果人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)里的青年人數(shù)增加，表示受高等教育的人口也在增加，而這很可能導(dǎo)致住宅市場(chǎng)的需求增加。從1998年實(shí)行住房制度改革以后，我國真正進(jìn)入商品房時(shí)代，取消了福利分房，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)開始成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)新增長點(diǎn)。同時(shí)，為解決1998年亞洲金融危機(jī)帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟和就業(yè)壓力，我國開始實(shí)行高等教育擴(kuò)招，居民受高等教育越來越普及。從2004年開始我國第三波嬰兒潮的人口逐步進(jìn)入青年人群，本文認(rèn)為人口年齡和高等教育結(jié)構(gòu)的變化會(huì)增加我國住宅市場(chǎng)的需求，從而加劇房價(jià)的上漲。 本文有別于大多數(shù)文章僅從年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的角度探討住房價(jià)格背后的人口因素，本文運(yùn)用1999-2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)研究我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)、教育結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)我國三大經(jīng)濟(jì)板塊住宅價(jià)格的影響。結(jié)果表明：第一，高等教育對(duì)我國住宅價(jià)格有積極影響，無論是普通住宅市場(chǎng)還是別墅市場(chǎng)，高等教育是解釋我國住宅市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化的重要因素，對(duì)我國中部影響最大，其影響高達(dá)7%-10%，影響最小的是我國東部，影響程度為3%-5%。第二，撫養(yǎng)比例對(duì)住宅價(jià)格的變化影響程度從東部到西部也呈依次遞減趨勢(shì)，且呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；中國經(jīng)濟(jì)體制轉(zhuǎn)型及階段性的人口政策使得我國老年人口的增加并不會(huì)帶來住宅價(jià)格的顯著下降。第三，人口增長率與人均GDP對(duì)我國住宅價(jià)格產(chǎn)生明顯的正效果，而城市化率對(duì)住宅價(jià)格的影響不明確、不顯著�！胺e極穩(wěn)妥推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化，著力提高城鎮(zhèn)化質(zhì)量”是我國推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化工作的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, our country house price appeared the national rise, the range is big, the scope is wide. Housing is a necessity of people's life, however, the existing "high housing price" has become a very serious social and economic problems and livelihood problems, "difficult to buy a house" has become one of the most important difficulties people face in life. Scholars from different angles: land system, monetary system, speculation and urbanization, put forward a variety of explanations to promote the rapid development of China's housing market, but there is no unified conclusion. This paper attempts to explain the reasons for the rapid rise in house prices from the point of view of population structure, in which the population structure refers to the age structure of the population and the structure of education. This article thinks that the youth with higher education are the most eager to buy a house. Because after graduation, often means to stay in the city to work and live, have their own home is the most sense of belonging. If the number of young people in the age structure of the population increases, it means that the population of higher education is also increasing, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand in the housing market. Since the reform of housing system was carried out in 1998, our country has really entered the age of commercial housing, and has abolished the distribution of welfare housing, and the real estate industry has begun to become a new growth point of the national economy. At the same time, in order to solve the economic weakness and employment pressure brought by the Asian financial crisis in 1998, our country began to carry out the expansion of higher education, and the higher education for residents became more and more popular. Since 2004, the third wave of baby boomers in China has gradually entered the youth population. This paper argues that the change of population age and higher education structure will increase the demand of housing market in our country, thus aggravate the rise of house prices. This paper is different from most articles in discussing the population factors behind housing price only from the angle of age structure. This paper uses panel data from 1999 to 2012 to study the effect of population structure and education structure on housing prices in three economic sectors of China. The results show that: first, higher education has a positive impact on the housing price of our country. Whether it is the ordinary housing market or the villa market, higher education is an important factor to explain the change of housing price in our country, and it has the greatest impact on the central part of our country. Its influence is as high as 7-10, and the least is in the east of our country, the influence degree is 3-5. Secondly, the influence of dependency ratio on housing price also decreases from east to west, and has a negative correlation. China's economic system transformation and population policy make the increase of the elderly population will not bring about a significant decline in housing prices. Third, population growth rate and per capita GDP have obvious positive effects on housing prices in China, while the impact of urbanization rate on housing prices is not clear and significant. "actively and steadily promoting urbanization and improving the quality of urbanization" is the urgent task of promoting urbanization in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F299.23;F224

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