本文選題：住宅 + 人口結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),在我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演著重要角色。住宅是房地產(chǎn)的重要組成部分,住宅市場的健康發(fā)展不僅關(guān)系到國家、地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,更加關(guān)系到社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定與和諧。 我國是一個(gè)人口眾多的國家,在上世紀(jì)五六十年代,我國經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)高出生率的時(shí)代,這批人口成年后,住宅需求急劇增大。加之近些年我國民經(jīng)濟(jì)空前發(fā)展,城市人口快速增長,收入水平不斷提高、消費(fèi)觀念得到巨大的改善,人們對(duì)于住宅的數(shù)量和質(zhì)量上的需求大量釋放。但我國的現(xiàn)實(shí)國情是人均土地面積少,住宅用地供給有限。住宅供需的不平衡,造成房價(jià)上漲。近幾年,城市房價(jià)上漲過快,“買房難”問題早已不是個(gè)案,住宅問題已成為包括城市中低收入人群在內(nèi)的大部分人的難題。同時(shí),根據(jù)人口學(xué)家、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測,我國“人口紅利”時(shí)代即將消退,取而代之的將是老齡化社會(huì)。對(duì)于可以預(yù)見的住宅需求的劇減,將會(huì)給我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來巨大沖擊。作為我國中西部最大的城市,武漢面臨著同樣的問題。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)住宅市場對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化的“軟著陸”,人口結(jié)構(gòu)與住宅價(jià)格有什么內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,本文將就這一問題進(jìn)行探討。 本文以武漢市為例,將商品住宅價(jià)格與人口結(jié)構(gòu)作為研究對(duì)象,選取武漢市人口自然結(jié)構(gòu)(性別比、勞動(dòng)力資源比重、撫養(yǎng)比)、人口社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)(家庭規(guī)模、就業(yè)比重、人均可支配收入)和地域結(jié)構(gòu)(非農(nóng)業(yè)人口比重)三個(gè)方面七個(gè)指標(biāo),文章先對(duì)人口結(jié)構(gòu)各子結(jié)構(gòu)與住宅價(jià)格關(guān)系進(jìn)行定性分析,然后建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型。得出：(1)人口結(jié)構(gòu)與住宅價(jià)格有很強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性。其中,勞動(dòng)力資源結(jié)構(gòu)、撫養(yǎng)比、人均可支配收入與住宅價(jià)格相互引導(dǎo)；家庭規(guī)模、非農(nóng)業(yè)人口比重單方面引導(dǎo)住宅價(jià)格變化；住宅價(jià)格引導(dǎo)就業(yè)比重的變化；性別比與住宅價(jià)格不存在相關(guān)性。(2)武漢市住宅價(jià)格主要受勞動(dòng)力資源結(jié)構(gòu)、家庭規(guī)模和城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。(3)家庭規(guī)模、人均可支配收入、非農(nóng)業(yè)人口比重對(duì)住宅價(jià)格存在長期的影響,勞動(dòng)力資源結(jié)構(gòu)、撫養(yǎng)比在短期內(nèi)影響較大。文章最后對(duì)武漢市住宅市場健康發(fā)展提出了一些建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy and plays an important role in our national economy. Housing is an important part of real estate. The healthy development of housing market is not only related to the economic development of countries and regions, but also to the stability and harmony of society. China is a country with a large population. In the 1950s and 1960s, our country experienced a high birth rate. In addition, the unprecedented development of our national economy in recent years, the rapid growth of urban population, rising income level, consumption concept has been greatly improved, people's demand for the quantity and quality of housing has been released. However, the actual situation of our country is that the per capita land area is small and the supply of residential land is limited. Housing supply and demand imbalance, resulting in rising house prices. In recent years, housing prices in cities have risen too fast, the problem of "difficult to buy a house" is no longer a case, housing problems have become a problem for most people, including low and middle income people in the city. At the same time, according to demographers and economists, China's "demographic dividend" era will fade, replaced by an aging society. For the foreseeable housing demand, will bring a huge impact on the real estate industry in China. As the largest city in central and western China, Wuhan is facing the same problem. How to realize the "soft landing" of housing market to the change of population structure, and what is the internal relation between population structure and housing price, this paper will discuss this problem. Taking Wuhan as an example, this paper takes commodity housing price and population structure as the research object, and selects the natural structure of population (sex ratio, labor resource proportion, dependency ratio, social and economic structure of population (family size, employment proportion) in Wuhan City. There are seven indexes in three aspects: per capita disposable income) and regional structure (proportion of non-agricultural population). Firstly, the relationship between the substructure of population structure and housing price is qualitatively analyzed, and then an econometric model is established. There is a strong correlation between population structure and housing price. Among them, the structure of labor resources, dependency ratio, per capita disposable income and housing price guide each other; the family size, the proportion of non-agricultural population leads to the change of housing price unilaterally; the housing price leads to the change of employment proportion; There is no correlation between sex ratio and housing price. (2) the housing price in Wuhan is mainly affected by the structure of labor resources, family size and urban and rural structure. The proportion of non-agricultural population has a long-term effect on housing prices, and the labor resource structure and dependency ratio have a great influence in the short term. Finally, the article puts forward some suggestions for the healthy development of Wuhan housing market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：F293.3;C924.2;F224

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