本文選題：生育率轉(zhuǎn)變 + 人口效應(yīng)��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2010年博士論文

【摘要】：對近乎封閉的中國人口系統(tǒng)而言,不同時期人口狀態(tài)(指人口總量、年齡構(gòu)成等)的存續(xù)及演化具有歷史連貫性和繼承性,與前期生育、死亡等因素存有嚴(yán)格的邏輯關(guān)系。全面、直觀地比較生育率因素與死亡等非生育率因素在人口總量變動、人口年齡構(gòu)成變動方面差異影響及其時效性分布特征,量化分析不同時期的人口增長慣性和年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動慣性,可為直觀解讀現(xiàn)階段及未來中國人口格局成因,科學(xué)認(rèn)識未來時期人口變化內(nèi)在因素提供依據(jù)。 本項研究通過新構(gòu)建的比較人口方案,以“生育保持更替水平、死亡等保持期初水平不變”特殊人口情境為比較對象,重新構(gòu)建并驗證生育率變動的人口效應(yīng)分析程式,以及歷史時期人口變動的滯后人口效應(yīng)分析程式,所得到的分時間序列分布的人口效應(yīng)數(shù)值,可為全面、直觀地解讀人口狀態(tài)與生育率變動之間的邏輯關(guān)系,以及綜合評估階段性生育率變動在人口發(fā)展中影響。 本項研究主要內(nèi)容,包括四個方面：一、基于穩(wěn)定人口理論,比較人口預(yù)測法等形式人口學(xué)方法,構(gòu)建并驗證了人口效應(yīng)分析程式；二、以中國人口為研究對象,量化分析不同時期人口變動的滯后人口效應(yīng),和不同階段生育率變動的人口效應(yīng)；三、量化分析生育率轉(zhuǎn)變時期城鄉(xiāng)差異、生育政策干預(yù)在中國人口發(fā)展歷程中影響；四、揭示對未來人口變動的認(rèn)知所包含的不確定性。中國生育率轉(zhuǎn)變的人口效應(yīng)分析,可概述為以下幾個方面： 一、1972年之前歷史時期人口變動形成的人口總量增長慣性,將持續(xù)影響至2027年前后,是中國人口總量變動的主要動力源,它潛在地“鑄就”了未來峰值人口的規(guī)模在人口年齡構(gòu)成方面,既“鑄就”了1982～2027期間低撫養(yǎng)比、低老年撫養(yǎng)比,也有力地延緩了2027年前中國人口老齡化進(jìn)程。 二、生育率轉(zhuǎn)變時期(1972-2000)人口變動使未來潛在的人口規(guī)模提高10%,而對21世紀(jì)前半葉老年系數(shù)變動、老年撫養(yǎng)比變動方面的影響甚��；但是,它加速了21世紀(jì)中后期人口老化進(jìn)程,“提升”了屆時的老年撫養(yǎng)比。 三、在生育率轉(zhuǎn)變時期的“生育率變動”是21世紀(jì)中葉之前中國人口總量變動的主要的潛在動力源；其人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),呈波動變化,在百年內(nèi)消逝。它有力地延緩20世紀(jì)末期與21世紀(jì)初葉的人口老化進(jìn)程,并減低了同期老年撫養(yǎng)比,提升了21世紀(jì)中后期人口老齡化峰值和老年撫養(yǎng)比峰值；它既是現(xiàn)階段形成“人口紅利”的積極因素,也是未來時期“人口負(fù)債”的動力源之一。與生育率因素不同,該時期死亡等因素變動的人口規(guī)模效應(yīng)甚小,主要表現(xiàn)為通過延長人口預(yù)期壽命,影響人口年齡構(gòu)成這種作用將會持續(xù)地延續(xù)。 基于中國人口效應(yīng)的量化分析,本文得出的主要理論觀點及其政策含義是： (1)生育率變動在人口總量變動方面的人口規(guī)模效應(yīng),在不同時段歷史時期人口變動、階段性生育率變動,有不同的表現(xiàn),共同的特征是：這種效應(yīng)將長期存在,最終將決定該人口能夠在多大規(guī)模上靜止下來,進(jìn)而長期影響該人口賴以生存與發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟社會和資源環(huán)境。假定生育率轉(zhuǎn)變后,恢復(fù)到更替水平,以實現(xiàn)零增長是宏觀層面的理想目標(biāo),那么轉(zhuǎn)變期生育水平的高低及其持續(xù)時間的長短對人口規(guī)模的影響,將伴隨這個人口到永遠(yuǎn)。因此,考慮到影響的久遠(yuǎn)性,生育率轉(zhuǎn)變的規(guī)模效應(yīng),應(yīng)該置于最高戰(zhàn)略層面加以對待,對生育率轉(zhuǎn)變期的生育水平、回歸時間施加影響,要考慮到更長遠(yuǎn)的未來。 (2)生育率變動在年齡構(gòu)成變動方面的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),具有強時效性特征,共同的特征是具有雙相性、雙重極端性、階段性。雙相性是指：有正效應(yīng)必有負(fù)效應(yīng),有負(fù)效應(yīng)必有正效應(yīng)。雙重極端性是指：正效應(yīng)越大,負(fù)效應(yīng)也越大；反之負(fù)效應(yīng)越大,正效應(yīng)也將越大。階段性是指：無論這種效應(yīng)是正、是負(fù),也無論這種效應(yīng)如何極端,在時間上是長是短,都將在正效應(yīng)和負(fù)效應(yīng)交替波動中逐漸收斂,最終趨于消失。從這種意義上說,年齡結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)對長期發(fā)展的影響力,要低于它的規(guī)模效應(yīng)。因此,從更長遠(yuǎn)的角度著眼,制訂人口發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和生育政策,應(yīng)該兼顧規(guī)模效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),而以規(guī)模效應(yīng)優(yōu)先。 (3)現(xiàn)階段某一種人口狀態(tài),是以往多階段、多因素人口效應(yīng)長期積累的結(jié)果；某一階段人口變動的人口效應(yīng),也會不同程度地影響到未來多階段、多因素的發(fā)展。對于某種負(fù)面效應(yīng),不能簡單化地歸咎于一種原因。未來的老齡化高峰、撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)高峰(主要是老年撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)高峰),并不是20世紀(jì)80年代以來,相對偏緊的計劃生育一種政策決定的。1972年以前的人口變動,就已經(jīng)潛在地形成了構(gòu)成這些高峰的一些基本因素,而在2040年之前,65歲以上老年人口已經(jīng)出生。從這種意義上來說,放寬計劃生育政策對減緩老齡化速度和程度的作用是有限的,想避免過度老齡化的構(gòu)想更是一種如“水中之月”的幻覺。從戰(zhàn)略的高度看,應(yīng)對過度老齡化挑戰(zhàn),須多種手段。當(dāng)然也包括計劃生育政策的適時、適度的調(diào)整和完善。 (4)當(dāng)前壓倒性意見,幾乎都認(rèn)為低生育水平是“人口老化加深、人口紅利消失、人口負(fù)債形成”的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住１疚牡难芯勘砻?趨于低生育水平,即有利于人口紅利形成,也促使人口負(fù)債形成,二者兼而有之。但它只是“人口老化加深、人口紅利消失、人口負(fù)債形成”的因素之一。當(dāng)然,生育水平也不是越低越好。過低、過高都不利于形成穩(wěn)定社會、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的穩(wěn)定的人口結(jié)構(gòu)。使生育率回歸并穩(wěn)定于更替水平,是穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的必然需要。即使如此,由于健康水平提高、預(yù)期壽命延長、死亡率下降等進(jìn)步因素的主導(dǎo)作用,我們必須做好迎接老齡化程度和傳統(tǒng)的撫養(yǎng)系數(shù)盡管是緩慢的、長期的,卻是不斷提高的準(zhǔn)備。在這方面,生育政策寬向調(diào)整的作用是有限的。
[Abstract]:In the case of near - closed Chinese population system , the existence and evolution of population status ( referring to total population , age composition , etc . ) of different periods have historical continuity and inheritance , and have strict logical relationship with factors such as procreation and death .


This study rebuilds and verifies the population - effect analysis program of fertility fluctuation and the lag - population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation in the historical period by comparing the population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation and population - effect analysis program of population fluctuation in the historical period , and comprehensively and intuitively interprets the logic relation between population state and fertility change , and comprehensively evaluates the influence of the change of stage fertility rate in population development .


The main contents of this study include four aspects : 1 . Based on stable population theory , comparative population prediction method and other forms of demographic methods , the population effect analysis program is constructed and verified ;
Secondly , taking the population of China as the research object , quantitative analysis of the lag population effect of population fluctuation in different periods and the population effect of the change of fertility rate at different stages ;
3 . Quantify and analyze the difference of urban and rural difference during the transformation period of fertility rate and the effect of policy intervention on population development in China ;
IV . Revealing the uncertainty contained in the perception of future demographic changes . Population - effect analysis of fertility transition in China , which can be summarized in the following aspects :


First , the population growth inertia formed by the population change in the historical period before 1972 will continue to affect the main power source of China ' s total population change before and after 2027 years . It can " cast " the scale of the future peak population in the composition of population age , which not only " cast " the low dependency ratio during the period from 1982 to 2027 , but also effectively delays the process of population aging in China 2027 years ago .


Second , the change of fertility rate ( 1972 - 2000 ) makes the potential population increase by 10 % in the future , and has little effect on the change of the old coefficient of the half - leaf in the first half of the 21st century .
However , it accelerated the aging process of the mid - 21st century and " promoted " the age dependency ratio .


3 . The change of fertility rate during the period of fertility transformation is the main potential power source of China ' s total population change before the middle of the 21st century .
Its population age structure effect is in fluctuation and has died within a hundred years . It effectively delays the process of population aging in the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century , and reduces the old - age dependency ratio in the same period , and promotes the peak of aging population aging in the middle and later period of the 21st century and the peak - raising ratio of the old age ;
It is not only the positive factor of forming " demographic dividend " at present , but also one of the power sources of " population liability " in the future period .


Based on the quantitative analysis of population effect in China , the main theoretical viewpoint and its policy implication are as follows :


( 1 ) The population size effect of the change of the fertility rate in the population change is different from the population change and the stage fertility rate in different periods of time .


( 2 ) The population age structure effect of the change of the fertility rate in the age structure has the characteristics of strong timeliness , and the common characteristic is that it has two - phase , double - polarity and stage . The two - phase property means that there is positive effect , negative effect and positive effect . The double extreme property is that the larger the positive effect , the greater the negative effect .
On the contrary , the larger the negative effect , the greater the positive effect will be .


( 3 ) At present , a state of population is the result of long - term accumulation of multi - factor population effects .
The population effect of population change in a certain stage can also affect the development of multi - stage and multi - factor in the future . For some negative effects , it can not be easily attributed to one reason . In the future , the population change has potentially formed some basic factors that make up these peaks . In this sense , the relaxation of family planning policy has potentially formed some basic factors that make up these peaks . In this sense , the relaxation of family planning policy is a kind of illusion such as the " month of water " . From the height of the strategy , it is necessary to deal with the challenge of over - aging . It is also a timely and appropriate adjustment and improvement of family planning policy .


( 4 ) At present , it is considered that the low fertility level is one of the factors contributing to the formation of demographic ageing , the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the formation of the population liability . The study shows that the lower the fertility level is beneficial to the formation of the demographic dividend and the formation of the population liability .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.2

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本文編號：1816972