本文選題：動態(tài)完全生命表 + 變參數年齡移算法模型�。� 參考：《統(tǒng)計與決策》2017年08期

【摘要】：文章編制了連續(xù)年份的動態(tài)完全生命表,采用變參數年齡移算法模型,對我國2016—2040年的人口進行了精準評估,結果顯示:我國將在2025年迎來人口峰值14.05億,在2040年左右邁入"超少子化"和"超級老齡化"的行列,老齡化的發(fā)展速度將超過少子化,男女比例失衡的現狀會得到改觀。可見,"全面二孩"政策對人口問題全方位調整的短期效應并不明顯,但會改善人口性別結構和家庭內部結構。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the dynamic complete life table of successive years is compiled, and the population of China in 2016-2040 is accurately evaluated by using the variable parameter age shift algorithm model. The results show that China will usher in a population peak of 1.405 billion in 2025. In 2040 or so, the development speed of aging will exceed that of minority children, and the imbalance between men and women will be changed. It can be seen that the short-term effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on the overall adjustment of the population problem is not obvious, but it will improve the gender structure of the population and the internal structure of the family.
【作者單位】： 山西財經大學統(tǒng)計學院;山西財經大學信息管理學院;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金資助項目(12CTJ006)
【分類號】：C924.2
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本文編號：1815612