本文選題：人口老齡化 + 養(yǎng)老保險��； 參考：《華僑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：儲蓄不僅與居民生活水平息息相關(guān),而且也關(guān)系到我國未來經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,因此研究居民儲蓄率具有重要意義。而對于居民儲蓄率來說,人口老齡化進(jìn)程的加快和我國的養(yǎng)老保險制度的發(fā)展是影響它的重要因素之一,但究竟它們與居民儲蓄率之間存在怎樣的聯(lián)系,這是一個值得深入研究的問題。本文首先回顧了人口老齡化和養(yǎng)老保險影響儲蓄的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),并在此基礎(chǔ)之上,又對它們影響儲蓄的經(jīng)典理論給予了相關(guān)介紹。然后闡述了我國目前人口老齡化狀況、養(yǎng)老保險的改革階段以及居民儲蓄的變化趨勢。隨后,在進(jìn)行實證分析時,我們先構(gòu)建考慮人口老齡化下的OLG模型,而后在此條件上構(gòu)建包含中國現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付模式與個人賬戶模式相結(jié)合的社會保險制度的OLG模型,并通過選取2001-2014年省級面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實證對比,以此來分析老年撫養(yǎng)比、預(yù)期壽命以及養(yǎng)老保險繳費率這三個核心變量對居民儲蓄率的影響變化情況。相比之下,在對未來居民儲蓄率進(jìn)行預(yù)測時,我們對前面構(gòu)造的三期世代交疊模型進(jìn)行一定的擴展,把我國傳統(tǒng)文化“孝文化”的情形考慮進(jìn)去,即在模型中加入家庭養(yǎng)老模式,通過數(shù)值模擬來分析在老齡化大背景下家庭養(yǎng)老和社會養(yǎng)老同時作用時會對居民儲蓄率造成的影響以及我國在全面實施二胎政策下各因素變量對我國今后儲蓄率的影響變化。最后我們給出相關(guān)人口政策和養(yǎng)老保險體系的建議,以使得我國在未來能夠降低儲蓄率,從而擴大內(nèi)需、促進(jìn)消費,更好地能拉動經(jīng)濟增長。本人從實證研究和數(shù)值模擬兩個方面分析了人口老齡化、養(yǎng)老保險對居民儲蓄率的影響。實證研究得到如下結(jié)論:在不考慮養(yǎng)老保險情況下,老年撫養(yǎng)比對儲蓄率有抑制作用,而預(yù)期壽命對儲蓄率卻有促進(jìn)的作用。如果考慮中國養(yǎng)老保險制度,雖然它們對儲蓄率的影響方向并不會發(fā)生改變,可是作用效果會減弱。同時此情形下養(yǎng)老保險繳費率對儲蓄的影響為負(fù)。而通過數(shù)值模擬得到如下結(jié)論:根據(jù)目前我國國情,預(yù)期壽命、家庭贍養(yǎng)支出比、生育率、統(tǒng)籌賬戶稅率以及個人賬戶稅率對儲蓄率的影響均為負(fù),與此相反,個人賬戶挪用率對儲蓄率的影響卻為正。此外也得出在保證儲蓄率不變的情形下,全面二胎政策的實施一方面會有效減輕子女因贍養(yǎng)父母所面臨的壓力,另一方面也可以有效緩解養(yǎng)老保險負(fù)擔(dān)。
[Abstract]:Saving is not only closely related to the standard of living of residents, but also related to the future economic development of our country, so it is of great significance to study the saving rate of residents. For the resident savings rate, the acceleration of the aging process of the population and the development of China's endowment insurance system is one of the important factors affecting it, but what is the relationship between them and the resident savings rate? This is a problem worthy of further study. This paper first reviews the literature on the effect of population aging and pension insurance on savings, and on this basis, gives a related introduction to the classical theory of their influence on savings. Then it expounds the current situation of aging population, the reform stage of endowment insurance and the changing trend of residents' savings. Then, in the empirical analysis, we first construct the OLG model considering the aging population, and then construct the OLG model which includes the combination of pay-as-you-go model and individual account model in China. Through the empirical comparison of provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014, this paper analyzes the influence of the three core variables on the resident savings rate, such as old-age dependency ratio, life expectancy and contribution rate of old-age insurance. In contrast, in forecasting the future household savings rate, we extend the three generations overlapping model constructed earlier, taking into account the "filial piety culture" of our traditional culture. That is, to add the family pension model to the model, Through numerical simulation, this paper analyzes the influence of the family pension and the social pension on the household savings rate under the background of aging, and the influence of factors on the future savings rate under the comprehensive implementation of the two-child policy in China. Finally, we give some suggestions on population policy and pension insurance system, so that our country can reduce the savings rate in the future, thus expand domestic demand, promote consumption, and better stimulate economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of aging population and endowment insurance on the saving rate of residents from two aspects: empirical research and numerical simulation. The empirical results show that the old-age dependency ratio can inhibit the savings rate without considering the old-age insurance, while life expectancy can promote the savings rate. If we consider China's pension insurance system, the direction of their impact on the savings rate will not change, but the effect will weaken. At the same time, the contribution rate of endowment insurance has negative effect on savings. According to the current situation of our country, life expectancy, family support expenditure ratio, fertility rate, overall account tax rate and personal account tax rate have negative effects on savings rate. The personal account misappropriation rate has a positive effect on the savings rate. In addition, under the condition that the savings rate remains unchanged, the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will effectively relieve the pressure on the children to support their parents on the one hand, and the burden of the old-age insurance on the other.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.24;F832.22;F842.67

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