發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-20 04:12

  本文選題：人口老齡化 + 消費(fèi)水平�。� 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的不斷上升,新生兒出生率和居民死亡率的大大降低,人口老齡化的進(jìn)程正在不斷加快,人口老齡化將是人類社會(huì)的必經(jīng)階段。全國(guó)第五次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國(guó)早在1999年就步入了人口老齡化社會(huì)。而山東省進(jìn)入老齡化的時(shí)間是1995年,比全國(guó)還早四年。截至2014年底,山東省65歲及以上人口總數(shù)與15-64歲人口總數(shù)的比重為16.1%,這一比例高于全國(guó)水平,老齡化程度的不斷加快必將給山東省經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶來深刻影響。研究表明,山東省人口老齡化的特點(diǎn)集中體現(xiàn)為增長(zhǎng)速度快、城鄉(xiāng)之間以及地區(qū)之間差異明顯、“空巢現(xiàn)象”日趨嚴(yán)重等。而老年人口的消費(fèi)觀念、消費(fèi)能力和需求與青壯年及少兒群體相比有著很大的差別。因此老年人口占總?cè)丝诒戎氐纳仙厝粫?huì)給山東省居民整體的消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變帶來很大影響。文章的第一部分是緒論。緒論部分主要包括文章的選題背景和研究意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、研究的思路和方法、論文的主要內(nèi)容和框架、以及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足。第一章主要闡述基本概念和理論依據(jù)。首先解釋一些相關(guān)的概念：人口老齡化、消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)；其次,對(duì)于本文研究中要用到的與消費(fèi)相關(guān)的理論給予簡(jiǎn)單介紹,主要包括凱恩斯絕對(duì)收入假說、杜森貝利的相對(duì)收入假說、弗里德曼的持久收入理論、莫迪利安尼的生命周期理論。第二章是山東省人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀、特點(diǎn)和山東省居民消費(fèi)水平和結(jié)構(gòu)分析。根據(jù)山東省2001—2014年的老齡人口數(shù)量和老齡人口比重、歷次人口普查山東省總?cè)丝谂c老年人口增長(zhǎng)比較、2010年山東省各地級(jí)市人口年齡構(gòu)成等數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行總結(jié)分析,再針對(duì)14年間的變化總結(jié)出：人口老齡化具有速度快、地區(qū)之間差異明顯、城鄉(xiāng)之間差異顯著、“空巢老人”數(shù)量顯著增加等特征。首先,利用2000-2014年15年間的的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),分析山東省城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村居民人均消費(fèi)水平的變動(dòng),然后根據(jù)2005-2014年城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村居民人均全年八大類消費(fèi)品支出的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算出每一類消費(fèi)支出在總支出中所占的比重,進(jìn)而分析山東省城鎮(zhèn)和農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn)。第三章：主要采用實(shí)證的方法,來研究山東省消費(fèi)水平在人口老齡化背景下所發(fā)生的變動(dòng)。這一部分主要包括模型的簡(jiǎn)介、對(duì)于數(shù)據(jù)出處的說明、檢驗(yàn)消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型,當(dāng)然這一模型是包含人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變量的。此外還對(duì)另外一個(gè)消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),這個(gè)模型是含有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)消費(fèi)人消費(fèi)水平的,最后對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析總結(jié)。第四章：主要采用實(shí)證的方法,來研究山東省居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)在人口老齡化背景下所發(fā)生的變動(dòng)。研究人口老齡化對(duì)于消費(fèi)支出的影響,這一研究過程采用的是灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的方法。研究山東省在2005年至2014年間65歲及以上的老齡人與八大類消費(fèi)品支出的關(guān)聯(lián)度的大小,進(jìn)而分析前者對(duì)后者需求程度影響的大小。第五章：結(jié)論與對(duì)策。主要從提高老年群體的消費(fèi)水平、優(yōu)化老年人口消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、減緩居民老齡化程度三個(gè)角度來分析。
[Abstract]:With the increasing level of economic development, the birth rate and mortality rate of the newborns are greatly reduced, the process of population aging is accelerating, and the aging of the population will be the required stage of human society. The fifth national census data shows that China entered the aging society as early as 1999. And the Shandong Province has entered the old age. The age of age is 1995, four years earlier than the whole country. By the end of 2014, the proportion of the total population of 65 years old and above and the total population of 15-64 years old in Shandong province is 16.1%. This proportion is higher than the national level. The continuous acceleration of the degree of aging will have a profound influence on the economic development of Shandong province. The research shows that the aging of population in Shandong province is special. The point concentration is embodied in the rapid growth rate, the obvious difference between the urban and rural areas and between the regions, and the increasingly serious "empty nest" phenomenon. The consumption concept, consumption ability and demand of the elderly population are very different from those of young and young adults. Therefore, the increase of the proportion of the elderly population to the total population of the population is bound to be the whole of the residents in Shandong province. The first part of the article is the introduction. The introduction part mainly includes the background and significance of the topic, the current research status at home and abroad, the thinking and method of research, the main content and framework of the paper, and the innovation and lack. The first chapter mainly expounds the basic concepts and theoretical basis. First, explain some related concepts: population aging, consumption level, consumption structure; secondly, give a brief introduction to the consumption related theories used in this study, including Keynes absolute income hypothesis, Duson Bailey's relative income hypothesis, Freedman's persistent income theory, Modigliani's life week. The second chapter is the status of population aging in Shandong Province, characteristics and analysis of the consumption level and structure of residents in Shandong province. According to the population and the proportion of the aged population from 2001 to 2014 in Shandong Province, the total population of Shandong province is compared with the growth of the aged population in Shandong Province, and the population age composition of the local cities of Shandong Province in 2010, and so on. By summarizing and analyzing the changes in 14 years, it is concluded that the population aging has a fast speed, obvious differences between regions, significant differences between urban and rural areas and a significant increase in the number of "empty nest elderly". First, the changes in the per capita consumption level of urban and rural residents in Shandong province are analyzed by the statistical data of 2000-2014 years and 15 years. Then, according to the statistical data of the expenditure of eight kinds of consumer goods per capita per capita of rural residents in 2005-2014 years, the proportion of each kind of consumption expenditure in the total expenditure is calculated, and then the characteristics of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Shandong province are analyzed. The third chapter is mainly to use the empirical method to study the consumption level in Shandong province. This part mainly includes the introduction of the model, the explanation of the data source, the test of the consumption function model, of course, which includes the population age structure variables. In addition, another consumption function model is tested, which contains standard consumer consumption level. In the fourth chapter, the fourth chapter mainly adopts an empirical method to study the changes in the consumption structure of residents in the background of population aging. The study of the effect of population aging on consumption expenditure is based on the method of grey connection degree in this study. The study of Shandong province from 2005 to 2014. The size of the aged people aged 65 and over with the expenditure of the eight categories of consumer goods, and then analysis the size of the former on the demand for the latter. The fifth chapter: conclusions and countermeasures, mainly from the three angles of improving the consumption level of the elderly, optimizing the structure of the elderly population and slowing down the aging degree of the residents.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F126

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本文編號(hào)：1776185