本文選題：適度人口 + FEEEP　； 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 人口問題是我國實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的首要問題。作為世界第一人口大國,中國的人口增長和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展給食物供給、能源需求和自然環(huán)境帶來了巨大的壓力。研究我國在一定社會經(jīng)濟背景和自然條件約束下的適度人口規(guī)模,有助于正確認識我國的人口問題。 文章從FEEEP的視角研究中國近期的適度人口規(guī)模。FEEEP是由亞太經(jīng)合組織提出的全球發(fā)展課題,其核心理念是食物、環(huán)境、能源、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和人口協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。首先從我國的現(xiàn)狀出發(fā)詳細論述了人口在FEEEP中的地位及作用,闡釋了FEEEP與可持續(xù)發(fā)展的聯(lián)系和區(qū)別,認為FEEEP是適合中國國情的可持續(xù)發(fā)展階段性目標(biāo),研究基于FEEEP的適度人口問題具有較強的現(xiàn)實意義。并將基于FEEEP的適度人口的內(nèi)涵總結(jié)為:在食物和能源的約束條件下,以經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境污染控制為目標(biāo)的人口數(shù)量。接下來通過擬合、預(yù)測FEEEP系統(tǒng)內(nèi)各要素之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系特征,構(gòu)建了以經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和控制環(huán)境污染為目標(biāo),能源供求、食物供求為約束的多目標(biāo)線性規(guī)劃模型。最后分別以溫飽水平、小康水平、發(fā)達國家水平的人均食物消費量為標(biāo)準設(shè)置了三類情景進行模型求解。求解結(jié)果為:溫飽水平下我國近期的適度人口為90119.98萬人,制約適度人口的主要因素是環(huán)境污染;小康水平下為85780.83萬人,主要制約因素是食物;發(fā)達國家水平下為68624.67萬人,主要制約因素是食物和能源。對三類情景下的社會經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)進行比較分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達國家情景下的資本存量水平等經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)我國在近期難以達到,而小康情景下的各項人均經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)高于溫飽情景下的水平。因此,認為85780.83萬人是我國近期內(nèi)最優(yōu)的適度人口規(guī)模。 根據(jù)適度人口的求解結(jié)果,得到以下主要結(jié)論:(1)我國現(xiàn)實人口和實際人口存在較大差距,為了提高人均福利,減輕資源環(huán)境的壓力,幾十年內(nèi)我國必須堅持計劃生育政策不能變。(2)對我國生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的擬合證實了我國目前還處于粗放型的經(jīng)濟增長模式中,經(jīng)濟增長造成了相當(dāng)嚴重的環(huán)境污染問題,只有轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式,并大力發(fā)展教育事業(yè)才能實現(xiàn)FEEEP的協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。(3)環(huán)境、食物、能源分別在社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的不同階段對適度人口起著最為關(guān)鍵的約束作用,建設(shè)環(huán)境友好型、資源節(jié)約型社會是影響我國人口發(fā)展和社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要戰(zhàn)略措施。
[Abstract]:The population problem is the primary problem to realize the sustainable development strategy of our country. As the world's most populous country, Chinese population growth and economic development to the food supply, energy demand and natural environment has brought great pressure. Research in China's social and economic background and natural conditions under the constraint of moderate population scale, the population problem will help to a correct understanding of our country.
From the perspective of FEEEP.FEEEP Chinese moderate population scale is the recent global development project proposed by APEC, which is the core concept of food, environment, energy, economic development and population development. Firstly, from the present situation of our country and discusses the role of population in the status of FEEEP, explains the connection and the difference between FEEEP and sustainable development, FEEEP is considered sustainable development milestones for Chinese conditions, has a strong practical significance of moderate population based on FEEEP. And the connotation of population based on FEEEP is summarized as follows: the constraints in food and energy, the number of population to economic development and environmental pollution control for the next target. By fitting, prediction of the number of relationship between the various elements within the FEEEP system, construction of the economic development and environmental pollution control targets for energy For food, supply and demand for multi objective linear programming model constraints. Finally, the subsistence level, the well-off level, per capita food consumption level of developed countries as the standard set up three scenarios to solve the model. The results are: the recent moderate population under the subsistence level in our country is 901 million 199 thousand and 800, main factors restricting the moderate population environmental pollution; well-off level is 857 million 808 thousand and 300, the main restricting factors of food; the level of the developed countries for 686 million 246 thousand and 700 people, the main restricting factors are food and energy. A comparative analysis of three kinds of scenarios of social economic indicators, economic indicators that developed countries under the situation of capital stock in China is difficult to achieve in the near future but, the per capita economic indicator of a scenario above the subsistence situation level. Therefore, I think 857 million 808 thousand and 300 is best in recent moderate population size.
According to the results of a moderate population, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a big gap between the reality of China's population and the actual population, in order to increase the per capita welfare, alleviate the pressure of resources and environment, within a few decades China must adhere to the policy of family planning can not be changed. (2) to fit the production function of our country confirmed economic growth mode of our country is still in the extensive mode of economic growth, caused by environmental pollution problem is very serious, only change the mode of economic development, and vigorously develop education in order to achieve the sustainable development of FEEEP. (3) the environment, food, energy in different phases of economic and social development of the population plays the most the key constraint function, the construction of environment-friendly, resource-saving society is an important strategic measure of China's population development and social economic development.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C924.24

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