本文選題：老齡化　切入點(diǎn)：主權(quán)債務(wù)　出處：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年03期

【摘要】：本文系統(tǒng)地研究了人口結(jié)構(gòu)對主權(quán)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。人口結(jié)構(gòu)"老齡化"與老年人口"高齡化"是本輪債務(wù)危機(jī)的重要誘因,"銀色浪潮"會(huì)導(dǎo)致政府的償債能力和償還意愿降低,進(jìn)而推高了主權(quán)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文利用世代交疊分析框架構(gòu)建了基于財(cái)政收支的缺口模型和基于違約概率的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型,從理論上推導(dǎo)出人口老齡化影響債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的內(nèi)在機(jī)制,并運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)雙向固定效應(yīng)模型研究發(fā)現(xiàn),人口"老齡化"對主權(quán)債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在顯著的正向影響,"第二次人口紅利"并未提高主權(quán)債務(wù)的可持續(xù)性,"高齡化"相對于"老齡化"將帶來更大的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:This paper systematically studies the influence of population structure on sovereign debt risk. The aging of population structure and the aging of the elderly population are the important inducements of the debt crisis, and the "silver wave" will lead to the government's solvency. And reduced willingness to repay, In this paper, the gap model based on fiscal revenue and expenditure and the risk model based on default probability are constructed, and the internal mechanism of the impact of population aging on debt risk is deduced theoretically. And using the panel data bidirectional fixed effect model research found, The aging of the population has a significant positive impact on sovereign debt risk. The second demographic dividend does not improve the sustainability of sovereign debt, and "aging" will bring greater debt risk than "aging".
【作者單位】： 對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目(12CGJ027) 北京市社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目(15JGC143)、北京市社會(huì)科學(xué)基金研究基地重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(14JDJGA020) 對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)校級(jí)特色項(xiàng)目(TS3-03)以及對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)中國企業(yè)“走出去”協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心科研項(xiàng)目(201502YY003A)的資助
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F812.5
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本文編號(hào)：1697376