本文選題：人口老齡化　切入點(diǎn)：勞動力供給　出處：《上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化是社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然趨勢，我國在2000年底跨進(jìn)老年型社會的門檻，65歲老年人口占到了總?cè)丝跀?shù)的6.96%，并且這一比重表現(xiàn)出不斷增大的趨勢。老齡化帶來的一系列影響已經(jīng)漸漸的表現(xiàn)出來，例如勞動力人口比重下降、養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)加重、老年消費(fèi)需求增加、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等。能否處理好老齡化帶來的一系列問題，將關(guān)系到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的可持續(xù)性。 本文以社會保障、人口學(xué)和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ)，從研究人口老齡化與經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展關(guān)系入手，通過對人口老齡化的現(xiàn)狀和未來趨勢的分析，從宏觀和微觀層面分別探討了人口老齡化對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響。本文的研究主要分為以下幾個部分。 第一部分，利用2000年人口普查數(shù)據(jù)對我國2001-2050年的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測，分析了我國人口老齡化的特點(diǎn)以及各個年齡階段的人口比重變化。并根據(jù)人口與可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論，結(jié)合人口老齡化的影響分析了人口老齡化與經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)系。結(jié)論表明未來老齡化和高齡化會繼續(xù)加大，人口老齡化直接或間接的影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 第二部分，在對我國當(dāng)前勞動力供給情況分析的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合2000-2050年預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)，分析我國未來勞動力供給是否會出現(xiàn)不足。得出人口老齡化不僅對勞動力供給的數(shù)量造成影響，而且對勞動力供給的質(zhì)量會造成影響。如果保持當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)社會條件不變未來很可能會出現(xiàn)勞動力不足。 第三部分，以2000-2050年的老年人口預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，分析了未來養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)的變化。伴隨著勞動力人口比重的下降和老年人口比重的上升，老年負(fù)擔(dān)系數(shù)不斷增大，必然導(dǎo)致養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)隨著人口老齡化而加重，，無論是社會支出還是為老服務(wù)投入都在老齡化進(jìn)程中不斷加大，并且養(yǎng)老服務(wù)缺口目前正在日益增大，如養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)過重將會影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 第四部分，通過引進(jìn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)消費(fèi)人的概念，構(gòu)建了含人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的消費(fèi)函數(shù)，對我國未來老年人口與老年消費(fèi)、老年消費(fèi)和總消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了分析，得出了人口老齡化會使總消費(fèi)下降，同時老年消費(fèi)在總消費(fèi)中的比重呈現(xiàn)出不斷上升趨勢。并通過構(gòu)建含人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的儲蓄模型，得出老年人口比重增大不利于儲蓄增長和投資增加。 第五部分，針對老年人口比重不斷加大的趨勢，提出老年群體將會是市場上消費(fèi)的主要群體，從老年人的特殊需求出發(fā)，以社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的承受能力為基點(diǎn)，通過發(fā)展老年產(chǎn)業(yè)，來保證老年人的需求，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。同時，滿足老年人需求、保障老年人權(quán)益，不僅僅是一個經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，更是一個社會問題，加快建立為老服務(wù)體系，為低收入失能老人提供基本養(yǎng)老服務(wù)也是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的要求。 最后，在定量和定性分析的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了開發(fā)老年人力資源，創(chuàng)造老年人口紅利、促進(jìn)區(qū)域勞動力資源優(yōu)化配置、調(diào)整生育政策，減緩老齡化壓力、提高人口素質(zhì)，增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展后勁、加強(qiáng)對低收入失能老人照顧和增加老年福利支出等促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的相應(yīng)政策。
[Abstract]:Population aging is an inevitable trend of social economic development, our country has stepped into the aging society the threshold at the end of 2000, the 65 year old elderly population accounted for 6.96% of the total population, and this proportion showed increasing trend. A series of effects brought by aging have gradually shown, such as labor force the decline in the proportion of elderly, pension burden, increasing consumer demand, the industrial structure is not reasonable. It brings a series of problems to deal with aging, which is related to the sustainable economic development.
According to the social security, demography and economics theory, starting from the study of the relationship between population aging and economic sustainable development, by analyzing the current status and future trend of population aging, from the macro and micro level respectively to investigate the influence of population aging on economic development. This paper is divided into the following several parts.
The first part, using the 2000 census data to predict China's population age structure of 2001-2050 years, analyzed the population changes in the proportion of the population aging in our country and the characteristics of all ages. And according to the population and sustainable development theory, combined with the impact of the aging population analysis relationship between population aging and economic sustainable development. The conclusion shows that the future aging will continue to increase, the aging of the population directly or indirectly affect the development of economy.
The second part, based on the analysis of the current labor supply situation in our country, combined with the forecast data for 2000-2050 years, analysis of China's future labor supply will appear insufficient. The aging population not only the number of labor supply effect, and the quality of labor supply will be affected. If the current economic and social conditions remain unchanged the future is likely to be a shortage of labor.
The third part, based on the forecast data of 2000-2050 years old population, analyzes the changes of the future pension burden. With the rising labor population proportion and the decline in the proportion of the elderly population, the elderly burden coefficient increase, will inevitably lead to the pension burden is increasing with the aging of the population, regardless of social spending or investment to service for the old the increase in the aging process, and the pension service gap is currently increasing, such as pension burden will affect the sustainable development of the economy.
The fourth part, through introducing the concept of consumption standard, construct the consumption function with the age structure of the population, the elderly population in China in the future and the elderly elderly consumption, consumption and total consumption were analyzed, the aging of the population will make the total consumption decline, while the old year consumption in the total consumption proportion of a rising trend. And through the construction of savings model with age structure of the population, the proportion of the elderly population increasing is not conducive to the growth of savings and investment.
The fifth part, according to the proportion of elderly population increasing the elderly population will be put forward, mainly on the market of consumer groups, from the point of view of the special needs of the elderly, with the social and economic development capacity as the basis, through the development of aging industry, to ensure that the needs of the elderly, promote the sustainable development of economy. At the same time, to meet the elderly the needs of the people, safeguard the rights and interests of the elderly, is not only an economic problem, but also a social problem, accelerate the establishment of a service system for the old, for low-income disabled elderly to provide basic pension services but also the requirement of sustainable development.
Finally, on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis, put forward the development of elderly human resources, create the elderly population dividend, promote regional optimal allocation of labor resources, the adjustment of fertility policy, slow down the aging pressure, improve population quality, enhance the economic development potential, strengthen the disabled elderly care and increase of elderly welfare expenditures to promote the sustainable development of economy the corresponding policy of low income.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C92-05

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