發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-19 00:17

  本文選題：全面二孩政策　切入點(diǎn)：生育意愿　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為了應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化、勞動(dòng)力資源匱乏等問題,我國(guó)于2016年開始實(shí)施“全面二孩”的政策,希望以此來調(diào)整我國(guó)的生育狀況、改善人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)�！叭娑ⅰ闭呤┬泻笕藗兊纳庠笗�(huì)如何變化、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)如何發(fā)展、影響他們?cè)偕庠傅囊蛩氐降资鞘裁?這值得我們進(jìn)行一番系統(tǒng)地研究。本文以河北省為例,首先調(diào)查了“全面二孩”政策施行后一孩家庭的二孩生育意愿,之后通過問卷數(shù)據(jù)及其他相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)利用隊(duì)列要素法并結(jié)合人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件padis-int對(duì)河北省的人口進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),最后利用二元離散選擇模型對(duì)二孩生育意愿的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn):“全面二孩”政策頒布后,河北省的二孩生育意愿沒有顯著增加。河北省未來人口老齡化程度依然很嚴(yán)重,呈現(xiàn)出了不斷上升的趨勢(shì),“全面二孩”政策預(yù)期效果不理想。經(jīng)過影響因素分析發(fā)現(xiàn):是否生育二孩主要受到了一孩的教育費(fèi)用、一孩對(duì)于父母生育二孩的態(tài)度等因素的顯著影響。最后針對(duì)影響因素提出了相關(guān)建議,希望通過這些手段可以刺激“全面二孩”政策更好地實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the problems of the aging population and the shortage of labor resources, China began to implement the policy of "all-around two-child" in 2016, hoping to adjust the fertility situation of our country. Improve the age structure of the population. After the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, how will people's desire to have children change, how will the age structure of the population develop, and what are the factors that affect their willingness to reproduce again? This is worth a systematic study. Taking Hebei Province as an example, this paper first investigates the willingness of one-child families to bear children after the implementation of the "all-around two-child" policy. Then the population of Hebei Province is forecasted by questionnaire data and other relevant data using the cohort factor method and the population prediction software padis-int. Finally, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the desire of the second child by using the binary discrete choice model. It is found that after the promulgation of the policy of "comprehensive second child", There has been no significant increase in the willingness to give birth to two children in Hebei Province. In Hebei Province, the future population aging is still very serious. The expected effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy is not satisfactory. Through the analysis of influencing factors, it is found that whether to give birth to a second child is mainly due to the cost of education of one child. Finally, the author puts forward some relevant suggestions on the influencing factors, hoping to stimulate the implementation of the "all-around second child" policy through these measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21

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本文編號(hào)：1631980