發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-13 18:28

  本文選題：安徽省　切入點(diǎn)：生態(tài)足跡　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：可持續(xù)發(fā)展是一種全新的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和發(fā)展觀,如何將可持續(xù)發(fā)展概念由理論階段發(fā)展到可操作階段,定量測(cè)度發(fā)展的可持續(xù)性成為了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究的熱點(diǎn),其定量測(cè)度的核心問(wèn)題就是確定人類的發(fā)展是否存在于生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的承載能力可持續(xù)發(fā)展范圍內(nèi),但由于人們對(duì)于可持續(xù)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)因子指標(biāo)的選取和權(quán)重確定方面?zhèn)戎攸c(diǎn)各不相同,較大的制約了區(qū)域的比較研究,而生態(tài)足跡則緊扣了可持續(xù)發(fā)展中人與自然生態(tài)關(guān)系的內(nèi)涵,實(shí)現(xiàn)了定量衡量真正具有區(qū)域可比性可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究,可以全面地衡量在一定的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段人們的社會(huì)活動(dòng)帶來(lái)的資源消耗與當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)境承載力之間的差距。其理論概念和模型不僅角度新穎、形象易理解而且內(nèi)涵豐富,具有較強(qiáng)的系統(tǒng)性、可操作性和全球可比性的顯著優(yōu)勢(shì),得到了研究機(jī)構(gòu)和學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注,成為了目前定量測(cè)量可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要工具。為了能夠定量反映安徽省人口與生態(tài)的關(guān)系,體現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的內(nèi)涵,本研究采用了生態(tài)足跡模型對(duì)安徽的可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行定量測(cè)度評(píng)估。生態(tài)足跡與生態(tài)承載力都是指土地面積,其中,生態(tài)足跡是指滿足人口消費(fèi)的資源和吸納這些人口消費(fèi)所產(chǎn)生的廢棄物所需要的生態(tài)生產(chǎn)性土地面積,生態(tài)承載力是指該區(qū)域現(xiàn)有的生態(tài)生產(chǎn)性土地面積。在生態(tài)足跡理論中根據(jù)土地產(chǎn)量的不同水平可以將生產(chǎn)能力土地劃分為6大類土地,分別為：耕地、林地、草地、水域、建筑用地和化石燃料用地。本研究原始數(shù)據(jù)主要來(lái)自2001-2014年安徽省統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒。研究分析了自2000-2013年以來(lái)安徽省生態(tài)足跡的動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì),結(jié)合萬(wàn)元GDP生態(tài)足跡、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)資源利用效率、生態(tài)人口容量等指標(biāo)衡量單位生態(tài)足跡在經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)、人口容量方面的資源利用效率,利用因子分析方法結(jié)合SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對(duì)影響安徽省生態(tài)足跡增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行了深入分析,找出安徽省影響可持續(xù)發(fā)展的因素。研究結(jié)果顯示：①2013年安徽省常住人口的人均生態(tài)足跡為3.201ha,人均生態(tài)承載力為0.488ha,生態(tài)赤字由2000年的1.08ha/人增長(zhǎng)到2013年的2.713ha/人,2000-2013年間安徽省一直處于不可發(fā)展的狀態(tài),2009年安徽省由較嚴(yán)重的生態(tài)赤字區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)為了嚴(yán)重生態(tài)赤字區(qū)。②安徽省人均生態(tài)足跡年增長(zhǎng)率2007年之后達(dá)到了6.71%,比2003年前增長(zhǎng)速度快了2倍之多,呈直線上升趨勢(shì)。2000-2013年間的生態(tài)承載力基本保持不變,生態(tài)赤字是隨生態(tài)足跡增長(zhǎng)不斷上升的。③碳足跡是安徽省比重最大增長(zhǎng)最快的部分,在2013年化石能源足跡中煤、焦炭等污染嚴(yán)重的碳足跡比重占當(dāng)年化石能源足跡的84%,而環(huán)保能源足跡比重不足1%,安徽省能源結(jié)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重不合理。安徽省六類生產(chǎn)性土地中僅有林地和建筑用地呈人均生態(tài)盈余狀況,其余四類用地均為生態(tài)赤字,化石能源用地赤字最大。④2000-2013年間安徽省資源利用效率不斷提升,但目前年均8.6%的資源利用效率提高速度仍趕不上經(jīng)濟(jì)年均15.6%的增長(zhǎng)速度。自2004年安徽省大力推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,2005年開(kāi)始第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重迅速上升超過(guò)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)為主導(dǎo),2013年比重高達(dá)54.65%,但第二產(chǎn)業(yè)人均GDP生態(tài)足跡2005年后一直高于第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè),說(shuō)明第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的單位生態(tài)足跡創(chuàng)造財(cái)富值在三產(chǎn)業(yè)中最低,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理帶來(lái)了單位生態(tài)足跡的高消耗。在生態(tài)人口承載力方面,生態(tài)人口容量不斷下降,實(shí)際人口赤字呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),人口對(duì)于生態(tài)環(huán)境壓力不容忽視。⑤安徽省生態(tài)足跡增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子統(tǒng)計(jì)分析顯示,安徽省生態(tài)足跡的增長(zhǎng)原因是由人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)等眾多因子綜合影響的結(jié)果,其中最主要的影響因子是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、碳足跡兩個(gè)變量。相比與常住人口規(guī)模,人口文化素質(zhì)對(duì)于安徽省生態(tài)足跡的影響更為顯著。最后,基于安徽省生態(tài)足跡變化趨勢(shì)定量研究的結(jié)果,為目前政府建設(shè)“生態(tài)強(qiáng)省”、“美好安徽”的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo),實(shí)現(xiàn)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路提出了有針對(duì)性的建議。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development is a development strategy and a new concept, how the concept of sustainable development from the theoretical stage to the operation stage, quantitative measurement of sustainable development has become a hot research at home and abroad, the core problem is to determine the quantitative measurement of human development exists in the ecosystem carrying capacity of sustainable development scope but, because the index of sustainable development for the people to select and determine the weights of evaluation factors in different aspects, the constraints of the larger comparative study area, while the ecological footprint is closely linked to the connotation of sustainable development in the ecological relationship between man and nature, to achieve a quantitative measure of true comparability with regional sustainable development research can comprehensive measure of resource consumption and local environmental carrying capacity in the stage of social and economic development of the poor people's social activities From the concept and theory. The model not only new perspective, image understanding and rich connotation, is a systemic, operable and global comparable significant advantages, has received wide attention from research institutions and scholars, has become an important tool for the quantitative measurement of sustainable development at present. In order to reflect the quantitative relationship of Anhui Province the population and ecology, embodies the connotation of sustainable development, this study adopts the ecological footprint model of sustainable development status in Anhui are quantitatively measure. The ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity refers to the land area, the ecological footprint refers to ecological productive land area to meet the consumption of population resources and absorb these generated population consumption the waste is needed, the ecological carrying capacity refers to the ecological productive land area in the region. The existing ecological footprint theory according to the yield of different land The level of the production capacity of the land can be divided into 6 categories of land, farmland, woodland, respectively: grassland, water, land and fossil fuel land construction. This study mainly from the original data statistics in Anhui province 2001-2014 years Yearbook. Research and analysis of the 2000-2013 years since the Anhui Province ecological footprint dynamic change trend, combined with GDP ecological footprint, ecological resources utilization efficiency of industrial structure, population capacity and other indicators to measure unit of ecological footprint in the economy, industry, population capacity utilization efficiency of the resources, analysis methods combined with SPSS statistical software for the influence of the ecological footprint of Anhui province growth driving factors are analyzed by using factor, to find out the influencing factors of sustainable development in Anhui province. The study result shows that the ecological footprint per capita in 2013 the resident population of Anhui province is 3.201ha, the per capita ecological carrying capacity was 0.488ha, the ecological deficit by 2000 1.08ha/浜哄闀垮埌2013騫寸殑2.713ha/浜，

本文編號(hào)：1607652