本文選題：0歲人口組性別比　切入點(diǎn)：全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)　出處：《河北師范大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：基于2009年12月31日24時(shí)河北省全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)時(shí)點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，統(tǒng)計(jì)出2009年0-9歲分年齡別分性別人數(shù)；利用河北省第五次人口普查公布的0-9歲分年齡別、分性別死亡率回推，得到河北省2000-2009年各自然年度0歲人口組性別比。結(jié)果表明，2000年河北省0歲人口組性別比為116.84，高于河北省第五次人口普查公布的114.07。假定3孩及以上孩次為五普數(shù)據(jù)中的出生漏報(bào)群體，按照全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)修正后的五普0歲人口組性別比由114.07提高到了115.59，說(shuō)明河北省第五次人口普查公布的0歲人口組性別比偏低，政策外出生人口瞞報(bào)是導(dǎo)致性別比偏低的主要原因。由于全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)估算的2004-2009各自然年度0歲人口組性別比起伏較大，且明顯低于2000-2003各自然年度0歲人口組性別比，說(shuō)明：全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)0-5歲年齡組別人口個(gè)案信息存在政策外出生人口瞞報(bào)現(xiàn)象，但隨著孩子入學(xué)，，需要登記戶口，年滿6周歲的瞞報(bào)人口才逐步浮出水面，基于全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)推算出的河北省2000-2003各自然年度0歲人口組性別比相對(duì)可信。利用這一方法，估算的河北省分市縣0歲人口組性別比存在顯著區(qū)域差異。制作了2003年河北省0歲人口組性別比專題圖，發(fā)現(xiàn)邯鄲、邢臺(tái)、滄州等地0歲人口組性別比嚴(yán)重偏高。借助地理信息系統(tǒng)中IDW插值方法，對(duì)縣級(jí)0歲人口組性別比進(jìn)行插值運(yùn)算，發(fā)現(xiàn)107等值線與河北省山地邊界相似，更好的說(shuō)明了山地與平原性別比的差異。值得注意的是張家口、承德107等值線與其行政邊界相似，這可能是由于兩市生育政策不同造成的。基于全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，推算河北省近十年0歲人口組分孩次性別比，發(fā)現(xiàn)一孩性別比始終處于正常水平；二孩性別比偏高，但呈現(xiàn)緩慢下降趨勢(shì)；多孩性別比畸高，且呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)走高態(tài)勢(shì)。實(shí)踐證明，利用全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，可以動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)分區(qū)域、分孩次的0歲人口組性別比，全員人口數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)是輔助監(jiān)測(cè)出生人口性別比的有力支撐平臺(tái)。
[Abstract]:Based on the time point data of the whole population database of Hebei Province at 24:00 on December 31st 2009, the author calculates the number of people aged 0-9 years old and sex classification on 2009, and makes use of the age classification of 0-9 years old published by the 5th population census in Hebei Province to push back the gender mortality rate. The sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2009 was obtained. The result shows that in 2000, the sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province is 116.84, which is higher than that of 114.07 in 5th population census of Hebei Province. The underreporting of births in the. According to the revision of the whole population database, the sex ratio of the 0 year old population of the five people was raised from 114.07 to 115.59, indicating that the sex ratio of the 0 year old population group published by the 5th population census in Hebei Province was on the low side. The underreporting of birth population outside the policy is the main reason for the low sex ratio. Because the sex ratio of the population aged 0 years in 2004-2009 estimated by the whole population database fluctuates greatly, and is obviously lower than the sex ratio of the population aged 0 years in each natural year of 2000-2003. Explanation: in the population database of 0-5 years old, there is a phenomenon of underreporting of the birth population outside the policy. However, with the children enrolled in the school, they need to register their hukou, and the under-reported population who have reached the age of 6 has gradually surfaced. Based on the whole population database, the sex ratio of 0-year-old population in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2003 is relatively reliable. Using this method, The estimated sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province is significantly different from that of the 0 year old population in Hebei Province. In 2003, the thematic map of sex ratio of 0 year old population in Hebei Province was made, and it was found that Handan, Xingtai, The sex ratio of 0 year old population in Cangzhou and other places was on the high side. With the help of IDW interpolation method in GIS, the gender ratio of 0 year old population at county level was interpolated, and it was found that the 107 isoline was similar to the mountain boundary of Hebei province. It is worth noting that Zhangjiakou, the Chengde 107 isoline is similar to its administrative boundary, which may be due to the difference in fertility policies between the two cities. It is found that the ratio of one child to one child is always at normal level, the ratio of two children is high, but it is declining slowly, the multi-child sex ratio is abnormally high, and shows a trend of rising continuously, and the practice proves that the ratio of one child to one child is always in the normal level. The whole population database can be used to dynamically monitor the sex ratio of the 0 year old population in the sub-region. The whole population database is a powerful support platform for monitoring the sex ratio of the birth population.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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