本文關(guān)鍵詞：“普遍兩孩”生育政策的調(diào)整依據(jù)、政策效應(yīng)和實(shí)施策略，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

“普遍兩孩”生育政策的調(diào)整依據(jù)、政策效應(yīng)和實(shí)施策略

China＇ s Universal Two- Child Policy： Grounds, Effects and Strategies

[1] [2]

Liu Jiaqiang,Tang Daisheng

[1]西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)中國(guó)西部經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心; [2]西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院,成都610074

文章摘要：“十三五”對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)非常關(guān)鍵，人口均衡發(fā)展問(wèn)題是這一關(guān)鍵時(shí)期的核心要素。老齡化與少子化并存導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力減少的人口結(jié)構(gòu)疊加效應(yīng)對(duì)我國(guó)人口長(zhǎng)期均衡發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響，這意味著人口政策必須做出適應(yīng)性調(diào)整。文章認(rèn)為逐步放開(kāi)的生育政策調(diào)整符合我國(guó)人口政策設(shè)計(jì)初衷和發(fā)展方向，“普遍兩孩”生育政策是我國(guó)現(xiàn)行生育政策調(diào)整和完善合符邏輯的結(jié)果，，其政策實(shí)施將對(duì)我國(guó)保持人口長(zhǎng)期均衡發(fā)展、緩解婚姻市場(chǎng)擠壓、延長(zhǎng)人口紅利收割、推遲老齡社會(huì)進(jìn)程等方面的人口學(xué)后果和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)后果產(chǎn)生積極效應(yīng)，未來(lái)我國(guó)需要完善適應(yīng)“普遍兩孩”生育政策的支持體系和治理體系，實(shí)現(xiàn)從獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)少生向保障人口安全的政策轉(zhuǎn)型以及“普遍兩孩”生育政策治理體系和治理能力現(xiàn)代化轉(zhuǎn)型。

Abstr：The 13th Five- Year Plan period is crucial for China, in which macro population problem is the core element. Population aging and low fertilily leading to redudion in labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China＇ s population, implying that China＇s population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that birth policy adjustment accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development cliredion. A universal two - child policy is a logical result of the adjustment of China＇ s current fertility policy, which is believed to bring about positive effects on the future demographic and economic development, particularly in sus- taining long term balanced development of China＇ s population, eliminating marriage squeeze, length- ening demographic dividend and delaying aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance system for fully implementing the universal two -child policy.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Universal Two -Child Policy, Fertility Intention, Policy Effect, Policy Transition, Govern- ance Transition

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：“普遍兩孩”生育政策的調(diào)整依據(jù)、政策效應(yīng)和實(shí)施策略，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。