本文選題：人口承載力　切入點(diǎn)：水資源　出處：《四川社會科學(xué)院》2010年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】： 成都市自實(shí)行城鄉(xiāng)一體化和城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌以來,工業(yè)化和城市化進(jìn)程加快,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)張,截止到2009年末,全市戶籍人口數(shù)已達(dá)到1139.6萬人,城市人口規(guī)�？焖贁U(kuò)大給城市資源帶來了極大的壓力。2008年“汶川大地震”、2009年以來全國范圍的旱災(zāi)使得成都郊區(qū)的生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到破壞,成都的生態(tài)環(huán)境發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)折性變化,環(huán)境承載能力急劇降低。在現(xiàn)代城市中,水資源是一個(gè)區(qū)域人口、生態(tài)、環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)社會協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。城市人口的日常生活、生產(chǎn)、城市經(jīng)濟(jì)工業(yè)的發(fā)展離不開水。一定時(shí)期、地域和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平條件下,一定的水資源只能承載一定的人口容量�，F(xiàn)階段成都水資源短缺問題日益嚴(yán)重,水資源供需平衡問題已成為制約城市人口增長、規(guī)模擴(kuò)張的一個(gè)重要瓶頸。千萬人口的成都市面臨著水資源短缺和日益增長的水資源需求的雙重壓力。未來成都市的水資源能支撐多大規(guī)模的人口成為現(xiàn)實(shí)的課題。 本文從成都市水資源的供給和用水現(xiàn)狀分析出發(fā),從成都市全市水資源和市區(qū)生活用水量為切入點(diǎn)分別兩個(gè)建立水資源約束下的人口承載力模型,并對相關(guān)的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測和比較。最終結(jié)果顯示成都市水資源約束下的人口承載規(guī)模為1245.9-1568.1萬人之間。測算數(shù)值僅高于人口自回歸的200萬余人, 2020年成都市水資源對人口的承載空間十分有限。最后筆者在社會經(jīng)濟(jì)(人口)-水資源-生態(tài)耦合系統(tǒng)下提出要繼續(xù)實(shí)行人口計(jì)劃生育政策,合理引導(dǎo)人口的有序流動,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對水資源的依賴程度。多渠道開發(fā)水源和提高水資源的利用效率,加強(qiáng)水資源管理法制建設(shè)及執(zhí)法能力建設(shè),做好成都市污水處理和回用的規(guī)劃,加強(qiáng)宣傳,提倡節(jié)約用水和科學(xué)用水。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of urban-rural integration and urban-rural planning, the process of industrialization and urbanization has been accelerated, and the scale of the city has been continuously expanding. By end of 2009, the number of residents in the city had reached eleven million three hundred and ninety-six thousand. The rapid expansion of urban population has brought great pressure to urban resources. The "Wenchuan earthquake" on 2008, the nationwide drought since 2009, has destroyed the ecological environment in the suburbs of Chengdu, and the ecological environment of Chengdu has undergone watershed changes. In modern cities, water resources are the basis for the coordinated and sustainable development of a region's population, ecology, environment, economy and society. Urban economic and industrial development can not be separated from water. Under certain conditions of regional and economic development, a certain amount of water resources can only carry a certain population capacity. At present, the shortage of water resources in Chengdu is becoming increasingly serious. The balance between supply and demand of water resources has become a constraint on urban population growth. Chengdu, with a population of ten million, is facing the double pressure of water shortage and increasing demand for water resources. In the future, the water resources of Chengdu can support the question of how large a population becomes a reality. Based on the analysis of the water supply and water use in Chengdu, this paper sets up the population carrying capacity model under the restriction of water resources respectively from the water resources and the daily water consumption in Chengdu. The final results show that the population bearing capacity under the restriction of water resources in Chengdu is between 1245.9-1568.1 million people. The calculated value is only higher than that of more than 2 million people who are autoregressive. In 2020, the water resources of Chengdu were only higher than that of more than 2 million people. The space for carrying population is very limited. Finally, under the system of social economy (population, water resources and ecological coupling), the author proposes to continue carrying out population family planning policy. We should rationally guide the orderly flow of population, adjust the industrial structure and upgrade the industrial structure, reduce the degree of dependence of economic growth on water resources, develop water sources through multiple channels and improve the efficiency of water resources utilization. We should strengthen the legal construction of water resources management and law enforcement, make a good plan for the treatment and reuse of sewage in Chengdu, strengthen propaganda, and advocate water conservation and scientific water use.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：C922

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