本文選題：人口慣性　切入點(diǎn)：新疆人口　出處：《中央民族大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：人口的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)慣性必將導(dǎo)致中國(guó)人口老齡化和少子化等結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題日趨嚴(yán)重。本文首先基于Preston(1997)提出的人口慣性離散公式,對(duì)人口慣性測(cè)量方法進(jìn)行了推廣,即,將五歲組精確到一歲組,使預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果更為準(zhǔn)確。其次,選取新疆作為研究省份,從具體數(shù)據(jù)出發(fā),分別應(yīng)用原有方法和推廣后的人口慣性測(cè)量方法,計(jì)算了新疆的各個(gè)人口慣性因子,并進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析；最后,就新疆人口的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,采用不同方案模擬了從六普到本世紀(jì)末新疆人口的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,測(cè)量了新疆人口達(dá)到峰值年份的人口慣性作用及本世紀(jì)末人口慣性的作用。主要結(jié)論如下：第一、雖然全國(guó)第五次、第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)顯示新疆全區(qū)及分城鄉(xiāng)人口的慣性因子都大于1,也即,其人口均處于正慣性增長(zhǎng)階段。但是這十年間,人口正慣性的增長(zhǎng)在下降,且鄉(xiāng)村人口的下降幅度大于城鎮(zhèn)。第二、總和生育率提高到更替水平的年份越早,新疆人口總量達(dá)到峰值的年份越遲,人口達(dá)到的峰值越高,之后人口減少的速度越慢。不同模擬方案顯示：假設(shè)總和生育率維持在1.53(低于更替水平)并保持不變,新疆全區(qū)人口總量未來(lái)30年仍將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但在2040年達(dá)到峰值之后將迅速減少；假設(shè)總和生育率在2030年之后一步提高到更替水平并保持不變,新疆全區(qū)人口總量峰值年份推遲到2049年,之后緩慢減少然后趨于穩(wěn)定；假設(shè)總和生育率在2030年之前線性增長(zhǎng)到更替水平并保持不變,新疆全區(qū)人口總量的峰值年份為2054年,之后緩慢減少然后趨于穩(wěn)定。第三、對(duì)比新疆城鎮(zhèn)和鄉(xiāng)村的人口慣性作用,可以發(fā)現(xiàn)：不同模擬方案下,城鎮(zhèn)人口達(dá)到峰值的年份比鄉(xiāng)村早,人口慣性因子下降的幅度也比鄉(xiāng)村大,而且在達(dá)到峰值以后,城鎮(zhèn)人口總量的下降速度也比鄉(xiāng)村快,城鎮(zhèn)的人口慣性作用對(duì)新疆全區(qū)的影響也比鄉(xiāng)村大。鄉(xiāng)村各年齡組的人口比重都是小幅度變化,城鎮(zhèn)各年齡組的人口比重變化很明顯。提高總和生育率,城鎮(zhèn)少年兒童組的人口比重近似不變,但是一直低于鄉(xiāng)村；城鎮(zhèn)成年人口比重會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅下降,在2030年左右下降到低于鄉(xiāng)村,但是在2060年以后又會(huì)出現(xiàn)一定的回升；城鎮(zhèn)老年人口比重會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅上升,然后趨于平穩(wěn),但是一直高于鄉(xiāng)村。
[Abstract]:The negative growth inertia of population will inevitably lead to the structural problems such as aging and minority children becoming more and more serious in China. Firstly, based on the discrete formula of population inertia proposed by Preston 1997, this paper popularizes the method of population inertia measurement, that is, In order to make the forecast more accurate, the five year old group is accurate to the one year old group. Secondly, Xinjiang is selected as the research province, and the original method and the popularized population inertial measurement method are applied separately from the specific data. The population inertia factors of Xinjiang are calculated and compared. Finally, according to the current situation of Xinjiang's population development, different schemes are used to simulate the development of Xinjiang's population from Liupu to the end of this century. The population inertia in Xinjiang in the peak year and the population inertia at the end of this century are measured. The main conclusions are as follows: first, although 5th times in China, The data from the 6th censuses show that the inertia factor of the whole region and the urban and rural population in Xinjiang is greater than 1, that is, its population is in the stage of positive inertial growth. However, in the past ten years, the positive growth of the population has been decreasing. Second, the earlier the total fertility rate rises to the replacement level, the later the total population in Xinjiang will reach its peak, and the higher the population peak. Later, the slower the population decline, the more slowly the population will decline. Different scenarios show that assuming that the total fertility rate remains at 1.53 (below replacement level) and remains unchanged, the total population of Xinjiang will continue to grow for the next 30 years. Assuming that the total fertility rate will increase to replacement level and remain unchanged after 2030, the peak year of the total population in Xinjiang will be postponed to 2049, and then slowly decrease and then tend to stabilize. Assuming that the total fertility rate increases linearly to the replacement level before 2030 and remains unchanged, the peak year of the total population of Xinjiang is 2054, and then slowly decreases and then tends to stabilize. Third, compare the population inertia between towns and villages in Xinjiang. It can be found that under different simulation schemes, the urban population reaches its peak value earlier than the rural population, and the decline of the population inertia factor is larger than that of the rural population, and after the peak, the total urban population decreases faster than the rural population. The impact of the urban population inertia on the whole Xinjiang region is also greater than that of the rural areas. The proportion of the population in each age group in the countryside has changed by a small margin, and the proportion of the population in each age group in the town has changed significantly. The total fertility rate has been increased. The proportion of urban children and adolescents is approximately unchanged, but it is always lower than that of rural areas; the proportion of urban adult population will decrease significantly, and will drop to lower than that of rural areas in 2030 or so, but after 2060, there will be a certain increase. The proportion of elderly people in cities and towns will rise sharply and then stabilize, but will always be higher than in rural areas.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中央民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 茅倬彥;;我國(guó)人口慣性的區(qū)域差異研究[J];人口與發(fā)展;2011年06期

2 茅倬彥;;人口慣性的測(cè)量方法[J];南方人口;2011年03期

3 王光召;安和平;;低生育背景下中國(guó)人口慣性與人口增長(zhǎng)峰值預(yù)測(cè)[J];寧夏大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2014年03期

4 查瑞傳;人口慣性及其對(duì)我國(guó)人口發(fā)展的影響[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);1982年02期

5 倪躍峰;;試論中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)婚育觀及其成因和影響[J];南方人口;1993年01期

6 李怡然;;關(guān)于調(diào)整生育政策可行性的思考 ——以經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)生育影響的角度為基礎(chǔ)[J];現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)信息;2012年13期

7 喬曉春;;對(duì)《決定》的理解和思考[J];市場(chǎng)與人口分析;2007年01期

8 原新;劉士杰;;1982-2007年我國(guó)人口老齡化原因的人口學(xué)因素分解[J];學(xué)海;2009年04期

9 ;[J];;年期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前1條

1 記者 宜秀萍;穩(wěn)妥有序推進(jìn)“單獨(dú)兩孩”政策[N];甘肅日?qǐng)?bào);2014年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 呂婧華;人口慣性測(cè)量方法推廣及其對(duì)新疆人口發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的模擬研究[D];中央民族大學(xué);2016年

，

本文編號(hào)：1571481