本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化　切入點：人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置　出處：《山西財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來我國城鎮(zhèn)化一直保持快速發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)化水平提升飛快,從新中國成立時的10.6%發(fā)展到2016年的57.37%,這意味著我國超過一半的人口居住在城鎮(zhèn),按照諾瑟姆的城市化理論,我國已經(jīng)處于城鎮(zhèn)化的快速發(fā)展階段,城鎮(zhèn)化已經(jīng)進入了一個新的發(fā)展階段。但是,在傳統(tǒng)的快速城鎮(zhèn)化過程中,城鄉(xiāng)差距沒有縮小的跡象,城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展明顯快于農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化,沒有更好的帶動農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化同步發(fā)展,而且在城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展的進程中又遇到了農(nóng)村人口老齡化和人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置問題,這導致農(nóng)村在發(fā)展過程中面臨著更加嚴峻的問題,阻礙農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的實現(xiàn),同時,也會對城鎮(zhèn)化本身產(chǎn)生影響,所以,必須將城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置問題統(tǒng)籌考慮,使三者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,對城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展有很大的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先對城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置的相關(guān)概念進行了界定,并闡述了它們的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,接著通過文獻研究等方法對我國城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置問題之間的相互作用機制進行理論分析,理清了三者之間的相互作用關(guān)系,運用修正的托達羅勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移模型分析了城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置問題三者之間相互作用的原因,認為在不同的預期收入和成本的考慮下,農(nóng)業(yè)勞動力做出的遷移決策不同,就會產(chǎn)生不同的勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移方式,進而會對城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置本身以及他們之間的相互作用機制產(chǎn)生不同的影響。然后通過層次分析法等方法收集計算所需數(shù)據(jù),運用協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗、脈沖函數(shù)響應函數(shù)以及方差分解等方法對我國城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化與人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置現(xiàn)象進行了實證分析,分析三個變量的動態(tài)響應關(guān)系和相應的滯后時長,最后得出與理論分析基本相一致的結(jié)論,認為我國傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展導致的人口轉(zhuǎn)移模式導致我國人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置,會阻礙我國農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展,反過來對城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展也會產(chǎn)生不利的影響,城鎮(zhèn)化在短期對農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的正向影響較小甚至有負面作用,但在長期城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展對農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化有很大的推動作用,農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展無論在短期還是長期都對城鎮(zhèn)化有很大的促進作用。最后提出我國城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化、人口老齡化城鄉(xiāng)倒置三者相互協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的對策與建議,要走新型城鎮(zhèn)化道路,改變城鄉(xiāng)勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移方式,降低人口轉(zhuǎn)移成本;創(chuàng)新農(nóng)民組織形式促進農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展;增強科技創(chuàng)新與推廣,加速城鄉(xiāng)技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's urbanization has maintained a rapid development, and the level of urbanization has risen rapidly, from 10.6% when New China was founded to 57.37 in 2016. This means that more than half of the population of our country lives in cities and towns. According to Northam's theory of urbanization, China has been in the rapid development stage of urbanization, urbanization has entered a new stage of development. However, in the traditional rapid urbanization process, there is no sign of narrowing the urban-rural gap. The development of urbanization is obviously faster than that of agricultural modernization. It does not better promote the synchronous development of agricultural modernization. Moreover, in the process of urban-rural development, it has encountered the problems of the aging of the rural population and the inversion of the urban and rural areas with the aging of the population. This leads to more serious problems in the development of rural areas, hindering the realization of agricultural modernization, and at the same time, it will also have an impact on urbanization itself. Agricultural modernization and population aging should be considered as a whole in order to coordinate the development of the three areas, which is of great theoretical and practical significance to the overall development of urban and rural areas. The related concepts of agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging are defined, and their development status is expounded. Then, the urbanization of China is analyzed by means of literature research and other methods. The interaction mechanism between agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging is analyzed theoretically, the interaction relationship between them is clarified, and the urbanization is analyzed by using the modified Todaro labor force transfer model. The reasons for the interaction between agricultural modernization and urban and rural inversion of aging population are as follows: under the consideration of different expected income and cost, different migration decisions of agricultural labor force will result in different transfer modes of labor force. It will have different effects on urbanization, agricultural modernization and population aging, and the mechanism of interaction between them. Then the data needed for calculation are collected through analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and cointegration test is used. Granger causality test, impulse function response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the phenomenon of urbanization, agricultural modernization and urban and rural population aging in China. This paper analyzes the dynamic response relationship of the three variables and the corresponding lag time, and finally draws the conclusion that the population transfer mode caused by the development of traditional urbanization results in the inversion of urban and rural population aging in our country, which is basically consistent with the theoretical analysis. It will hinder the development of agricultural modernization in our country, and in turn will have a negative impact on the development of urbanization. In the short term, the positive impact of urbanization on agricultural modernization is small or even negative. However, the development of long-term urbanization has a great role in promoting agricultural modernization, the development of agricultural modernization has a great role in promoting urbanization in both the short and long term. Finally, it is proposed that China's urbanization, agricultural modernization, The countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of the three inverted urban and rural population are to take a new road of urbanization, to change the mode of labor force transfer between urban and rural areas, to reduce the cost of population transfer, to innovate the form of farmers' organization to promote the development of agricultural industrialization; We will step up scientific and technological innovation and promotion and accelerate the transfer of technology between urban and rural areas.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.24;F299.21;F320.1

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