本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人口老齡化 消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu) 享受型消費(fèi) 老齡產(chǎn)業(yè)　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：江蘇省作為經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口大省,較早的在1986年就邁入了人口老齡化社會(huì),比全國(guó)整整提前13年,其老齡化也正處于不斷加速階段。盡管“未富先老”的基本國(guó)情對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生了一些消極影響,但老年人口規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大也可以提供積極的外部效應(yīng)。隨著生活質(zhì)量的改善,老年群體的消費(fèi)能力和消費(fèi)水平都有所提高,其消費(fèi)需求呈現(xiàn)不斷上漲的趨勢(shì)。由于老年人口的消費(fèi)特征顯著區(qū)別于其他年齡段人口,因而從消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)出發(fā),研究老年人口在不同消費(fèi)品上的表現(xiàn),對(duì)于滿足老年人的特殊需求,開(kāi)拓老年市場(chǎng),發(fā)展老齡產(chǎn)業(yè)以及帶動(dòng)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展都有重要的指導(dǎo)和促進(jìn)作用。 本文首先對(duì)江蘇省歷次人口普查老齡化的變動(dòng)過(guò)程進(jìn)行全面分析,并總結(jié)了其在老齡化過(guò)程中所呈現(xiàn)出的變化特征,還運(yùn)用國(guó)際人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件PADIS-INT對(duì)江蘇省老年人口的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。其次,從靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)兩方面分析江蘇省居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀特征及變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),并結(jié)合相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)江蘇省老年人消費(fèi)總需求變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行量化分析。接著,運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法研究江蘇省城鄉(xiāng)老年人口與消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)八大項(xiàng)的具體關(guān)系,用數(shù)值來(lái)量化反映老年人口與各項(xiàng)消費(fèi)品的關(guān)聯(lián)程度。最后,根據(jù)上述理論研究和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,從政府和企業(yè)兩個(gè)層面,對(duì)于如何更好的開(kāi)發(fā)老年消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)、應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化分別給出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。 根據(jù)上述研究得出的主要結(jié)論有：(1)江蘇省老齡化程度比較高,增速快,城鄉(xiāng)差異大,高齡化凸顯。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè),2030-2050年是江蘇省老年人口增長(zhǎng)最迅速的時(shí)期。截至2050年,65歲及其以上人口數(shù)將增加到2013萬(wàn)人,達(dá)到總?cè)丝跀?shù)的31%。(2)江蘇省城鄉(xiāng)居民食品衣著項(xiàng)消費(fèi)支出不斷減少,醫(yī)療保健、交通通訊、居住及文娛服務(wù)等支出比重不斷上升,消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)逐步走向合理化。老年群體生活消費(fèi)各項(xiàng)支出都在上漲,其消費(fèi)需求類(lèi)型逐漸從生存型轉(zhuǎn)向享樂(lè)型。(3)定量分析結(jié)果顯示,江蘇省老年人口在教育文化娛樂(lè)服務(wù)、交通和通訊及醫(yī)療保健需求方面的消費(fèi)支出有所增加,而在食品、家庭設(shè)備及雜項(xiàng)上的消費(fèi)支出有所下降。針對(duì)研究結(jié)論給出的政策建議有：政府應(yīng)加強(qiáng)宏觀方面的調(diào)控和指導(dǎo),健全社會(huì)養(yǎng)老服務(wù)體系,并加強(qiáng)對(duì)老齡產(chǎn)業(yè)的扶持引導(dǎo)；企業(yè)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)調(diào)研,細(xì)分老年消費(fèi)需求,創(chuàng)新老年產(chǎn)品和服務(wù),開(kāi)拓營(yíng)銷(xiāo)渠道,打造核心老齡產(chǎn)業(yè),完善老齡產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province, as an economic and populous province, stepped into an aging society in 1986, 13 years earlier than the whole country. Its ageing is also at an accelerating stage. Although the basic national conditions of "ageing before becoming rich" have had some negative effects on social and economic development, However, the expansion of the elderly population can also provide positive externalities. With the improvement of the quality of life, the consumption capacity and consumption level of the elderly population have increased. Since the consumption characteristics of the elderly population are significantly different from those of other age groups, the consumption structure of the elderly population is studied in terms of the performance of the elderly population on different consumer goods. It plays an important guiding and promoting role in meeting the special needs of the elderly, opening up the market for the elderly, developing the industry of the aged and driving the sustainable development of the national economy. In this paper, the changing process of aging in the past censuses of Jiangsu Province is analyzed, and the characteristics of the aging process are summarized. The development trend of the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is predicted by using the international population prediction software PADIS-INT. Secondly, the characteristics and changing trend of the consumption structure of the residents in Jiangsu Province are analyzed from static and dynamic aspects. Combined with the relevant statistical data, the change trend of total consumption demand of the elderly in Jiangsu Province is analyzed quantitatively. Then, the specific relationship between the elderly population in urban and rural areas of Jiangsu Province and the eight major items of consumption structure is studied by using the method of grey correlation degree. Finally, according to the above theoretical research and empirical analysis results, from the government and enterprise level, how to better develop the elderly consumer market, The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions should be given respectively for the aging of the population. According to the above study, the main conclusions are: (1) Jiangsu Province has a relatively high degree of aging, a rapid growth rate, and a big difference between urban and rural areas. The aging age is prominent. It is predicted that 2030-2050 will be the fastest growing period for the elderly population in Jiangsu Province. By 2050, the number of the population aged 65 and over will increase to 20.13 million. The consumption expenditure on food and clothing items for urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province has been decreasing, and the proportion of medical care, transportation, communications, housing and recreational services has been increasing. The consumption structure is gradually being rationalized. All kinds of expenditure of the elderly group's living consumption are on the rise, and the types of consumption demand are gradually changing from the survival type to the hedonic type. The results of quantitative analysis show that the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is providing educational, cultural and recreational services. Consumer spending on transport and communications and health care needs has increased, while food, The government should strengthen the macro-control and guidance, perfect the social old-age service system, and strengthen the support and guidance to the aging industry; Enterprises should strengthen market research, subdivide the consumption demand of the elderly, innovate the products and services for the elderly, open up marketing channels, create the core industry for the aged, and perfect the chain of the industry for the aged.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126.1;C924.2

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