本文關鍵詞： 老齡化 匯率杠桿效應 匯率政策　出處：《復旦大學》2010年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：20世紀80年代后,中國實施的計劃生育政策為中國帶來了“人口紅利”,提供了較高的儲蓄率和豐富的勞動力,但人口紅利期將會在21世紀30年代后結(jié)束,中國將在21世紀遭遇人口的快速老齡化,從而對經(jīng)濟總量、結(jié)構和外部平衡狀況造成影響。本文的研究目標是,以經(jīng)濟學理論和模型為工具,在對老齡化經(jīng)濟后果進行估計和統(tǒng)籌考慮的基礎上,發(fā)揮匯率的杠桿作用,規(guī)劃出21世紀我國人口老齡化進程中的中長期匯率路徑和調(diào)節(jié)策略,使用匯率政策來為我國長期的經(jīng)濟增長、結(jié)構改進和外部平衡提供支持。 本文在考察了他人的研究成果和國內(nèi)外典型事實后,將人口經(jīng)濟學和開放宏觀經(jīng)濟學這兩個在國內(nèi)相對比較獨立的學科結(jié)合起來,并加入和強調(diào)了匯率的杠桿屬性,建立了包含人口學因素,以匯率水平為“牽一發(fā)而動全身”的核心變量的匯率杠桿模型,作為本文的工作母機。匯率杠桿模型實現(xiàn)了人口經(jīng)濟學模型的開放化,即能反映國際收支流量和國外資產(chǎn)積累存量,又實現(xiàn)了開放宏觀經(jīng)濟模‘型的人口代際微觀化,即反映不同年齡人口在勞動供給、消費、儲蓄等方面的行為差距；不僅如此,該模型還包括了匯率杠桿作用的微觀機制,既可以對任意給定的匯率路徑,預測出對物價、資產(chǎn)收益率等中間目標和對經(jīng)濟總量、結(jié)構和外部平衡等最終目標的影響方向和大小,又可根據(jù)特定最終目標,反向求解應有的匯率水平。本文還使用統(tǒng)計學和計量經(jīng)濟學等手段,對匯率杠桿模型中可估計的參數(shù)和初始值進行獨立的估計。 本文運用匯率杠桿模型的簡化版本,在不考慮匯率變動的情況下,模擬和預測了21世紀的多數(shù)時間內(nèi)(2009-2070年)我國在人口老齡化、金融市場開放等重大變革下的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)在人口老齡化進程中,我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展將呈現(xiàn)出的特征為經(jīng)濟總量增速明顯下降、消費率明顯提高、投資率一定幅度下降、國外資產(chǎn)從高速積累逐漸轉(zhuǎn)為高速消耗、在21世紀50年代以后出現(xiàn)高比例外債。 為了解決老齡化進程中出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟問題,本文利用包含人口學因素的匯率杠桿模型,模擬了人民幣在不同時間點下一次性貶值、升值和持續(xù)貶值、升值帶來的經(jīng)濟總量、結(jié)構和外部平衡情況變化,發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率政策對解決老齡化進程中的外部平衡問題最為有效,同時還能幫助實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟結(jié)構的調(diào)整,而對經(jīng)濟總量的貢獻較小,且匯率政策的執(zhí)行效果存在路徑依賴。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn),在老齡化進程中,持續(xù)升值能夠提高居民福利水平,但不能很好地解決外部平衡問題,持續(xù)貶值能夠避免國外負債,但改善外部平衡的福利代價較大,保持匯率不變的政策無論在提高居民福利水平還是在維持外部平衡上均不可取。 本文使用計算機求解了2010-2070年面向全體居民和面向特定居民群體的匯率政策優(yōu)化方案。按照面向全體居民的一般匯率優(yōu)化方案,人民幣應在21世紀30年代前逐步升值,提高居民近期福利水平,而在30年代后逐步貶值,以降低居民未來福利水平為代價,換取外部平衡。一般優(yōu)化的匯率政策會與不同年齡的居民個體福利最大化產(chǎn)生一定沖突,尤其會對21世紀中后期進入社會的年輕人帶來不利。通過對比各種匯率政策方案,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)匯率政策調(diào)節(jié)的時機和尺度差異對調(diào)節(jié)的效果影響很大,若過度升值可能會出現(xiàn)外部平衡無法恢復的“貶值陷阱”。 在我國老齡化進程中,本文提出的中長期匯率政策建議是在21世紀30年代前升值,在21世紀30年代后貶值,令人民幣的中期和短期升值趨勢平滑過渡,在政策搭配時,可著重將匯率政策用于外部平衡的維持以實現(xiàn)最優(yōu)指派。
[Abstract]:After 1980s, China implementation of the one-child policy brings the "demographic dividend" for Chinese, provides a high savings rate and abundant labor, but will the demographic dividend period at the end of 2030s, China in rapid aging of the population suffered in twenty-first Century, so the total economy, impact structure and external balance. The objectives of this paper is to economics theory and model as a tool, the economic consequences of aging based estimation and overall consideration on the leverage effect of exchange rate, exchange rate and long-term planning path adjustment strategy in twenty-first Century China's population aging process, the use of exchange rate policy for long-term economic growth in China, provide support for structure improvement and external balance.
This paper reviews the research results of other people and the domestic and foreign typical facts, population economics and macro economics will open the two in domestic relatively independent disciplines are combined, and added and emphasized the leverage character of the exchange rate, including demographic factors, exchange rate lever model "core variable QianYiFaErDongQuanShen" the exchange rate level, as the workhorses. Currency lever model to realize the open model of population economics, which can reflect the flow of international payments and foreign asset accumulation, but also realize the intergenerational population micro open macroeconomic model ", which reflects the different age population in the labor supply, savings and consumption. Other aspects of the behavior gap; moreover, the model also includes a micro leverage mechanism of exchange rate, exchange rate for any given path can be predicted, on price, capital The middle target yield and income of the total economy, the size and direction of impact structure and external balance as the ultimate goal, but also according to the specific goal, the exchange rate should be the reverse solution. This paper uses statistics and econometrics methods to estimate independent of parameters and initial exchange rate lever model can be estimated.
This paper uses a simplified version of the exchange rate lever model, without considering the exchange rate changes, simulation and prediction of twenty-first Century most of the time (2009-2070 years) in China's population aging, economic development of major changes in financial market opening down, found in the population aging process, the characteristics of China's economic development will appear for the total economy growth rate decreased significantly, the consumption rate increased significantly, the investment rate decreased to certain extent, the rapid accumulation of foreign assets from turning into a high consumption, high proportion of foreign debt occurred since 2050s.
In order to solve the economic problems in the process of aging, the exchange rate lever model including demographic factors, the RMB is simulated at different time points under the one-time devaluation, appreciation and appreciation of the continued depreciation of total economy, structure and external balance changes, found that the external balance of exchange rate policy to solve the problem of the aging process in the effectively, but also help to realize the adjustment of economic structure, and the total contribution to the economy is small, there is path dependent and the exchange rate policy implementation effect. This paper also found that, in the aging process, the continued appreciation can increase the level of residents' welfare, but can not solve the external balance problem very well, to avoid the continued depreciation of foreign debt but, to improve the external balance of the welfare cost of large, to keep the exchange rate policy in terms of improving the level of residents welfare or in maintaining external balance on It is not advisable.
This paper use the computer for 2010-2070 years for all residents and residents for specific groups of exchange rate policy optimization. According to the general optimization scheme for the residents of the exchange rate, RMB appreciation should gradually before 2030s, improve residents' recent welfare level, and gradually devaluation in 30s, in order to reduce future residents at the cost of welfare for external balance general. Optimization of exchange rate policy will have some conflict with the different age of individual welfare maximization, especially in late twenty-first Century to enter the society of young people adversely. Through the comparison of various exchange rate policy scheme, this paper found that the influence of timing and scale differences of exchange rate policy adjustment on the effect of regulation, if excessive appreciation may occur the external balance can not recover from the "devaluation trap".
In the process of aging in China, the long-term exchange rate policy recommendations proposed in this paper is the appreciation in 2030s, in 2030s after the devaluation of the yuan in the medium-term and short-term appreciation trend of a smooth transition in the policy collocation, but will focus on the exchange rate policy for maintaining external balance in order to achieve the optimal assignment.

【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F832.6;C924.2;F224

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