本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)常賬戶盈余 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) 面板數(shù)據(jù)　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版)》2017年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在中國人口結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾日益顯現(xiàn)以及國際收支持續(xù)失衡的大背景下,從理論層面探討人口結(jié)構(gòu)等因素對其經(jīng)常賬戶收支的影響機(jī)制,結(jié)合1997—2015年的省際面板數(shù)據(jù)分別運(yùn)用面板靜態(tài)和動態(tài)估計(jì)方法對理論模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),所得結(jié)果均十分穩(wěn)健。綜合來看,社會總撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)常賬戶盈余存在顯著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,但地區(qū)間也存在較大差異性,其中人口老齡化更為嚴(yán)重的東部地區(qū)其社會總撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)常賬戶盈余的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系較中、西部地區(qū)更為顯著。因此在計(jì)劃生育政策的嚴(yán)格約束下,有必要通過戶籍制度改革以及城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)來進(jìn)一步提高相對剩余勞動力供給,同時(shí)通過勞動密集型制造業(yè)的跨區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)移,提高資源配置效率,進(jìn)而在較長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)繼續(xù)保持勞動密集型產(chǎn)品的出口比較優(yōu)勢。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the structural contradiction of China's population and the persistent imbalance of the balance of payments in China, the influence mechanism of population structure and other factors on the current account income and expenditure is discussed from the theoretical level. Combined with the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015, the theoretical model is tested by using the static and dynamic panel estimation methods, and the results are very robust. In general, there is a significant negative correlation between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus. But there are great differences among different regions. The negative correlation between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus is more significant in the eastern region, where the aging population is more serious, and the western region is more significant. Therefore, under the strict restriction of the family planning policy, the relationship between the total social dependency ratio and the current account surplus is more significant. It is necessary to further improve the supply of relative surplus labor through the reform of household registration system and the construction of urbanization, and at the same time, improve the efficiency of resource allocation through the trans-regional transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing industries. And then in a longer period of time to continue to maintain labor-intensive products export comparative advantage.
【作者單位】： 湘潭大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【分類號】：C924.2;F752.6

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本文編號：1536523