本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人口老齡化 消費(fèi) 協(xié)整理論 誤差修正模型　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來中國一直保持著高速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,年均GDP增長率接近10%,從2003年以來,更是連續(xù)保持著10%以上的告訴經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率。對(duì)于中國這個(gè)人口眾多且經(jīng)濟(jì)尚處于轉(zhuǎn)型期的發(fā)展中大國而言,能夠在改革開放的30年間取得這些成績無疑會(huì)讓世界矚目。然而國內(nèi)居民消費(fèi)作為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“三駕馬車”之一始終動(dòng)力不足,這進(jìn)一步成為現(xiàn)在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要瓶頸。因此,分析目前中國所面臨的一系列結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問題,尋找目前中國消費(fèi)不足的原因,對(duì)我國轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)鲩L方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步騰飛具有重要意義。 本文將從人口老齡化的角度分析中國分析人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變化對(duì)于我國消費(fèi)的影響。在對(duì)老齡化進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的定義和界定后,對(duì)我國的人口老齡化從產(chǎn)生原因到發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀等進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的描述性分析。之后從理論分析的角度分析了人口老齡化影響消費(fèi)的路徑,分別分析了老齡化對(duì)整體消費(fèi)的影響機(jī)制和老齡化對(duì)于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響這兩個(gè)方面。然后進(jìn)入了本文的實(shí)證分析部分。在實(shí)證分析方面,本文考慮到人口老齡化對(duì)于消費(fèi)的效率性影響,基于經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論和相對(duì)收入理論,分別構(gòu)造出了包含人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響變量的宏觀消費(fèi)函數(shù)。使用了1978年至2007年的數(shù)據(jù),利用協(xié)整理論和誤差修正模型分別分析了人口老齡化因素對(duì)于消費(fèi)的長期均衡影響和短期波動(dòng)影響。從回歸結(jié)果來看,人口老齡化既會(huì)從長期均衡方面對(duì)消費(fèi)的絕對(duì)量產(chǎn)生影響,又會(huì)通過誤差修正機(jī)制對(duì)消費(fèi)的短期波動(dòng)產(chǎn)生影響,而且無論是對(duì)長期消費(fèi)均衡還是對(duì)短期消費(fèi)波動(dòng)都存在負(fù)面影響。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has maintained rapid economic growth. The average annual GDP growth rate has been close to 10%. Since 2003, It has maintained an economic growth rate of more than 10%. For China, a large developing country with a large population and an economy in transition, To be able to achieve these results in the 30 years of reform and opening up will undoubtedly attract the attention of the world. However, as one of the "troika" that drives economic growth, domestic residents' consumption has always been underpowered. This has further become an important bottleneck in China's economic development. Therefore, by analyzing a series of structural imbalances faced by China at present, to find out the reasons for China's insufficient consumption at present, and to change the growth pattern of our country, It is of great significance to realize the further development of the economy. This paper will analyze the influence of the change of population age structure on consumption in China from the point of view of population aging. This paper makes a systematic and descriptive analysis of the aging of the population in China from the causes to the present situation of development, and then from the perspective of theoretical analysis, analyzes the path that the aging of the population affects consumption. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of aging on overall consumption and the influence of aging on consumption structure respectively. Then it enters the empirical analysis part of this paper. In this paper, considering the effect of population aging on consumption efficiency, based on the classical consumption theory and the relative income theory, the macro-consumption function including the influence variables of population age structure is constructed, respectively. The data from 1978 to 2007 are used. Based on cointegration theory and error correction model, this paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation of population aging factors on consumption. Population ageing affects both the absolute volume of consumption in terms of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations in consumption through error correction mechanisms. Moreover, both long-term consumption equilibrium and short-term consumption fluctuations have a negative impact.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F124

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 凌玲;;人口老齡化與居民消費(fèi)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)聯(lián)度分析——基于VAR模型的實(shí)證分析[J];石家莊經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 徐妍;遼寧省人口老齡化對(duì)消費(fèi)水平和結(jié)構(gòu)的影響[D];遼寧大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：1511671