本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人口城市化 安徽省 聯(lián)合國(guó)法 時(shí)間序列ARMA混合模型　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“21世紀(jì)對(duì)世界影響最大的有兩件大事：一是美國(guó)高科技產(chǎn)業(yè),二是中國(guó)的城市化”這是由諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獲得者約瑟夫斯蒂格利茨教授在2002年指出的。把城市化定為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的持久動(dòng)力是2010年中央一號(hào)文件的重大亮點(diǎn),目前我國(guó)已進(jìn)入快速城市化階段,因此城市化問(wèn)題一直是學(xué)者們關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。一直以來(lái),安徽省人口城市化發(fā)展水平均低于全國(guó)平均水平。到2010年底,全國(guó)人口城市化平均水平為49.68%,而安徽省城市化水平為43.01%,低于全國(guó)約6.67個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。安徽省是個(gè)典型的農(nóng)業(yè)大省,人口城市化水平比較低,而人口城市化水平低帶來(lái)的一系列問(wèn)題又會(huì)嚴(yán)重的制約安徽省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展。因此文章研究安徽省人口城市化問(wèn)題不僅具有一定的理論意義,也具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 文章分析了我省人口城市化發(fā)展水平的現(xiàn)狀,分析了影響安徽省的人口城市化發(fā)展的因素,并利用我省歷年來(lái)城鎮(zhèn)人口占總?cè)丝诒戎財(cái)?shù)據(jù),根據(jù)不同時(shí)間段預(yù)算的城鄉(xiāng)人口比增長(zhǎng)速度,同時(shí)借助國(guó)際預(yù)測(cè)法分析提出低中高三個(gè)方案,為了彌補(bǔ)該方法粗略的不足,本文還利用混合模型預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)安徽省人口城市化時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)分析。
[Abstract]:In 21th century, there were two major events that had the greatest impact on the world: first, the high-tech industry in the United States. Second, urbanization in China. "this was pointed out by Professor Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel economist, in 2002. Making urbanization a lasting driving force for economic development is a major highlight of the 2010 Central Committee document No. 1. At present, China has entered the stage of rapid urbanization, so urbanization has always been a concern of scholars. All along, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province is lower than the national average. By end of 2010, The average urbanization level of the whole country is 49.68 percent, while the urbanization level of Anhui Province is 43.01 percent, which is lower than that of the whole country by about 6.67 percentage points. Anhui Province is a typical big agricultural province with a relatively low level of population urbanization. However, a series of problems brought about by the low level of population urbanization will seriously restrict the economic and social development of Anhui Province. Therefore, the study of population urbanization in Anhui Province not only has certain theoretical significance, but also has important practical significance. This paper analyzes the present situation of population urbanization in our province, analyzes the factors influencing the development of population urbanization in Anhui Province, and makes use of the data of the proportion of urban population to the total population in Anhui Province over the years. According to the growth rate of urban-rural population ratio in different time periods, and with the aid of international forecasting method, the paper puts forward three schemes of low, middle and high schools, in order to make up for the rough deficiency of this method. This paper also uses the mixed model forecast method to forecast and analyze the time series data of population urbanization in Anhui Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F299.2;C924.2

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