本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國人口初婚風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素及其變遷——基于CGSS2010的研究　出處：《南方人口》2015年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 初婚風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 影響因素 出生隊(duì)列 社會(huì)變遷

【摘要】：初婚是婚姻歷程的起點(diǎn),是大部分社會(huì)成員必然經(jīng)歷的重要人生事件之一。個(gè)體初婚事件的發(fā)生不僅由其個(gè)體條件所決定,也在很大程度上會(huì)受到家庭特征、社會(huì)變遷的影響。本研究將影響因素分成三個(gè)層面:個(gè)體層面(性別、受教育程度)、家庭層面(父母受教育程度)和社會(huì)層面(區(qū)域、城鄉(xiāng)、遷移)。基于2010年中國綜合社會(huì)調(diào)查(CGSS2010)數(shù)據(jù),使用事件史分析方法,探討了影響我國人口初婚風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因素及影響因素的時(shí)代變遷。Kaplan-Meier方法顯示,不同個(gè)體特征、家庭特征和社會(huì)特征的群體,其初婚過程表現(xiàn)出明顯的過程性特征,并且對(duì)數(shù)秩檢驗(yàn)表明各個(gè)層面的因素對(duì)初婚的影響都是非常顯著的。出生隊(duì)列的COX風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型表明,個(gè)體層面中教育對(duì)初婚的推遲效應(yīng)彰顯;家庭層面中母親受教育程度對(duì)子女初婚的影響逐漸突出,父親受教育程度的影響力度變?nèi)?社會(huì)層面中,區(qū)域間的差異對(duì)初婚的影響增加,農(nóng)村和城市婚戀觀相近,戶口作用不再明顯。
[Abstract]:The first marriage is the starting point of the marriage process and one of the important life events that most social members must experience. The occurrence of the individual first marriage event is not only determined by their individual conditions but also largely affected by the family characteristics. The impact of social change. This study divided the factors into three levels: individual level (gender, education level), family level (parents education level) and social level (region, urban and rural areas). Based on the data of 2010 China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS 2010), the method of event history analysis was used. This paper discusses the factors that influence the risk of first marriage and the change of time. Kaplan-Meier method shows that different individuals, families and social groups have different characteristics. The process of first marriage shows obvious process characteristics, and the logarithmic rank test shows that the influence of various factors on the first marriage is very significant. The COX risk model of birth cohort shows that. At the individual level, the delayed effect of education on first marriage is evident; At the family level, the influence of the mother's education level on the first marriage of the children is gradually prominent, and the influence of the father's education level is weaker. At the social level, the influence of regional differences on first marriage increased, rural and urban views on marriage and love were similar, and the role of hukou was no longer obvious.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學(xué)社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型與社會(huì)管理協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;中國人民大學(xué)人口與發(fā)展研究中心;中國人民大學(xué)社會(huì)與人口學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24
【正文快照】： 婚姻是男女兩性合法締結(jié)的一種形式,也是家庭能夠存在的前提和基礎(chǔ)。婚姻對(duì)人類社會(huì)的特殊意義在于,它不僅關(guān)系到整個(gè)社會(huì)是否健康、協(xié)調(diào)與可持續(xù)發(fā)展,而且也對(duì)每一個(gè)社會(huì)成員的生存質(zhì)量、生活質(zhì)量及生命質(zhì)量產(chǎn)生重要影響(劉爽、郭志剛,1999)。在傳統(tǒng)社會(huì)中,婚姻對(duì)于個(gè)人或是

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