本文關(guān)鍵詞： 群體性突發(fā)公共事件 應(yīng)急管理 應(yīng)急決策 決策支持系統(tǒng) 性能評(píng)估　出處：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：群體性突發(fā)公共事件是一類(lèi)極為重要的非常規(guī)性突發(fā)公共事件,其危機(jī)控制和應(yīng)急救援的實(shí)際效果較大程度上依賴(lài)于具體實(shí)施的應(yīng)急管理方法。在發(fā)生重大群體性突發(fā)公共事件時(shí),如何有效干預(yù)和控制突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生與演化,及時(shí)制定有針對(duì)性的危機(jī)處理和應(yīng)急救援策略,給我國(guó)的各級(jí)行政管理部門(mén)和科學(xué)工作者提出了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。 本文結(jié)合新形勢(shì)下我國(guó)群體性突發(fā)公共事件的特征,分析面向群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理的基本需求,研究群體性突發(fā)公共事件的應(yīng)急管理數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理方法,建立基于多屬性匹配的應(yīng)急管理決策模型,研究滿(mǎn)足多地多部門(mén)聯(lián)動(dòng)的群體性突發(fā)公共事件的應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法,構(gòu)建較為完備的應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)效果評(píng)估指標(biāo)系統(tǒng),并研究基于證據(jù)推理方法的應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)效果綜合評(píng)估模型,以期為增強(qiáng)政府決策者的應(yīng)急管理能力提供理論依據(jù)和技術(shù)手段。本文的具體研究?jī)?nèi)容和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下： (1)群體性突發(fā)公共事件的演化機(jī)理。本文在分析群體性突發(fā)公共事件基本特征的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)一般性的群體性突發(fā)公共事件分類(lèi),從應(yīng)急管理過(guò)程和事件擴(kuò)散兩個(gè)方面分析群體性突發(fā)公共事件的演化機(jī)理,并有針對(duì)性地討論了面向群體性突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的多級(jí)聯(lián)動(dòng)應(yīng)急管理機(jī)制； (2)基于多屬性匹配模型的群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理決策方法。從剖析群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理決策的不確定性以及多屬性特征入手,研究多源多尺度應(yīng)急管理數(shù)據(jù)的采集及其預(yù)處理策略,建立基于多屬性匹配的群體性突發(fā)公共事件的應(yīng)急管理決策模型,并使用算例進(jìn)行模型的合理性驗(yàn)證； (3)面向群體性突發(fā)公共事件的應(yīng)急系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法。本文首先從復(fù)雜管理系統(tǒng)的視角分析群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)的特征,并采用多智能體建模和UML建模的思想深入研究了應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)方法； (4)基于證據(jù)推理模型的群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)性能評(píng)估方法。分析影響群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理效率和成功率的救援能力、決策方案、調(diào)度能力、技術(shù)手段等因素,建立應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)效果的評(píng)估指標(biāo)系統(tǒng),進(jìn)而借鑒多屬性決策理論中的不確定性評(píng)估方法,研究基于證據(jù)推理的應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)效果評(píng)估模型及相關(guān)算法； 本文成果擴(kuò)展了群體性突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理方法的研究思路,豐富了群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)的的方法體系,為群體性突發(fā)公共事件應(yīng)急管理系統(tǒng)的綜合性能評(píng)估提供了較為系統(tǒng)的解決方案。
[Abstract]:Group public emergency is a very important kind of unconventional public emergency. The actual effect of crisis control and emergency rescue largely depends on the implementation of emergency management methods. How to effectively intervene and control the occurrence and evolution of unexpected events and formulate timely crisis management and emergency rescue strategies has posed a great challenge to the administrative departments and scientific workers at all levels in our country. This paper analyzes the basic needs of the emergency management of mass public emergencies in the light of the characteristics of public emergencies in China under the new situation. The preprocessing method of emergency management data for mass public emergencies is studied, and the decision model of emergency management based on multi-attribute matching is established. This paper studies the design method of emergency management system to meet the needs of group public events, and constructs a more complete evaluation index system for the effect of emergency management system. And the comprehensive evaluation model of emergency management system based on evidence reasoning method is studied. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical basis and technical means for enhancing the emergency management capacity of government decision-makers. The specific research contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics of mass public emergencies, this paper summarizes the general classification of group public emergencies. This paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of mass public emergency from two aspects of emergency management process and event diffusion, and discusses the multi-level linkage emergency management mechanism for group emergency management. 2) based on the multi-attribute matching model, this paper analyzes the uncertainty and multi-attribute characteristics of the emergency management of public emergencies. The acquisition and preprocessing strategy of multi-source and multi-scale emergency management data are studied, and the decision model of emergency management based on multi-attribute matching is established, and the rationality of the model is verified by an example. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of the emergency management system of mass public emergencies from the perspective of complex management system. The design method of emergency management system is studied by using the idea of multi-agent modeling and UML modeling. 4) the performance evaluation method of public emergency management system based on evidence reasoning model. The rescue ability and decision-making scheme which affect the efficiency and success rate of emergency management of mass public emergencies are analyzed. Scheduling ability, technical means and other factors, the establishment of an emergency management system evaluation index system, and then draw lessons from the multi-attribute decision-making theory of uncertainty assessment method. The effect evaluation model and related algorithms of emergency management system based on evidence reasoning are studied. This paper expands the research ideas of the emergency management method of mass emergencies, and enriches the design method system of the emergency management system of public emergencies. It provides a systematic solution for the comprehensive performance evaluation of public emergency management system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D523

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