區(qū)域間滅火資源優(yōu)化配置研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-15 12:35
【摘要】： 經濟的快速發(fā)展引發(fā)火災事故的頻度上升、危害性增大，相應地使得社會對滅火資源的需求數量增加，所以有必要完善目前的滅火資源配置格局，適應不斷社會發(fā)展的需求。區(qū)域間的資源配置可以解決目前消防工作中存在的一些問題，諸如日益增大的危險源需求、消防裝備與消防人員的不足與管理部門的重復建設等；而且由于消防裝備的發(fā)展、信息技術的增強以及經濟的提高為區(qū)域間的資源配置提供了物質及技術保障。 國內外對滅火資源配置的相關研究已經取得了一定的成果，但也存在著一些問題，主要表現(xiàn)為：①危險源消防資源需求研究基本是從技術角度出發(fā)，對危險源發(fā)生火災后所需的滅火救援資源進行計算，忽略了火災發(fā)生概率的影響。②在滅火能力的定量研究中，大多通過建立評估指標利用層次分析法得到一個滅火能力或者組織效能的無量綱值，這種方法在某些情況下有失偏頗；并且由于它不具有物理意義，使其應用范圍有限。③資源配置方式的現(xiàn)有研究中，則往往由于缺少衡量布局優(yōu)劣的標準，難以對資源配置方式進行準確的比較。 從系統(tǒng)分析角度研究滅火資源配置，它是在衡量了滅火資源需求方的需求大小與滅火資源供給方的滅火能力后，根據一定的滅火資源配置標準，選取合適的滅火資源配置方式。滅火資源的需求主要來自于危險源，它決定了對滅火資源需求的頻度與數量；滅火資源的供給主要來自于各類消防組織，影響滅火能力的因素主要有：滅火劑、消防人員、消防裝備與通訊設施等；滅火資源配置需要遵循幾項原則，即整體性原則、動態(tài)性原則、平衡性原則與可行性原則。以系統(tǒng)分析的結論為基礎，作者深入論述了構成滅火資源配置系統(tǒng)的各個部分。 危險源需求傳統(tǒng)的計量是危險源的確定性需求，它著重考察危險源發(fā)生火災后對滅火資源的需求數量，忽略了火災發(fā)生可能性對滅火資源需求的影響，難以準確計量危險源的長期需求，，因此論文提出非確定性需求。非確定性需求是由危險源的確定性需求要素與火災發(fā)生概率要素二者構成，并具有不確定性、低概率、規(guī)律性與層次性等特征。計算非確定性需求的關鍵是確定火災發(fā)生概率，火災發(fā)生的概率主要由危險源本身的性質決定，具有一定的統(tǒng)計規(guī)律性，由此提出利用火災發(fā)生頻率歷史數據與危險源的特征參數擬合的方法來確定危險源火災概率，并設計火災概率神經網絡算法進行回歸預測。最后以油罐為例驗證神經火災概率網絡算法的有效性。 由于在傳統(tǒng)滅火能力的研究中，沒有非常明確衡量滅火能力的量綱，導致計算方法不是很客觀、科學。通過研究滅火能力構成，發(fā)現(xiàn)兩個特征：構成滅火能力的要素具有一定的層次性；不同層次的要素在數量上有一定的比例關系。據此，可以將構成滅火能力的要素根據比例關系逐層轉化成為滅火劑的供給，并以此表征滅火能力。并以此為基礎，建立了一種專門的數學模型，求出了比較客觀、科學的滅火能力值。利用此模型計算了三個中隊(站點)與整個區(qū)域的滅火能力，驗證了提出的模型與算法的有效性。 根據站點與危險源對應的不同，資源配置方式可以分為站點配置方式與滅火圈資源配置方式，為更精確的比較這兩種資源配置方式，提出危險源火災成本概念，分別測算單一站點資源配置方式及滅火圈資源配置方式對應的危險源火災成本。由此得出了結論：首先，滅火圈資源配置方式不比站點配置方式差，更加適合于區(qū)域間滅火資源配置；其次，資源配置數量不同直接影響滅火圈的火災成本。這說明了資源數量配置的不同對于火災成本有著較大的影響，針對滅火圈資源數量優(yōu)化問題，即對站點分配投資或者如何調整站點的資源配置數量，使得火災成本最低，進行了探討。以區(qū)域中某種資源的火災成本最低為優(yōu)化目標，構造了相應的優(yōu)化模型，提供了相應的計算方法，為優(yōu)化滅火圈資源配置方式提供了定量依據。 論文主要從定量角度研究了滅火資源配置及其相關問題，改進發(fā)展了傳統(tǒng)研究中的不夠完善之處，使得相應的理論研究更加科學、合理。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the economy causes the frequency of fire accident to rise, the harmfulness is increased, and the demand quantity of the society to the fire-fighting resources is correspondingly increased, so it is necessary to improve the current situation of fire-fighting resource allocation and adapt to the demand of the continuous social development. The resource allocation between the areas can solve some problems existing in the existing fire-fighting work, such as the increasing demand of the hazard source, the shortage of the fire-fighting equipment and the fire-fighting personnel and the repeated construction of the management department, etc., and the development of the fire-fighting equipment, The enhancement of information technology and the improvement of economy provide material and technical support for the resource allocation between the regions. The research on fire-fighting resource allocation at home and abroad has achieved some achievements, but there are some problems. The main performance is that the research of fire-fighting resource demand of the dangerous source is from the technical point of view, and the fire-fighting and rescue needed after the fire of the hazard source The resource is calculated and the fire is ignored. In the quantitative study of fire-fighting ability, a dimensionless value of fire-extinguishing ability or organizational effectiveness is obtained by means of the analytic hierarchy process, and this method is not biased in some cases; and because it does not have the physical meaning, it makes it The application range is limited. In the existing research of the resource allocation method, it is difficult to enter the resource allocation method because of the lack of the standard to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the layout. The fire-extinguishing resource allocation is studied from the system analysis angle, which is based on a certain standard of fire-fighting resource allocation after the demand-size of the demand side of the fire-fighting resource and the fire-extinguishing ability of the fire-fighting resource-generating party are measured. The appropriate fire-extinguishing resource allocation method is selected. The demand of fire-fighting resources mainly comes from the hazard source, which determines the frequency and quantity of the demand for fire-fighting resources; the supply of the fire-fighting resources is mainly from various fire-fighting organizations, and the factors that affect the fire-fighting ability are mainly: the fire-extinguishing agent and the fire-fighting Personnel, fire equipment and communication facilities, etc. The fire-fighting resource allocation needs to follow several principles, that is, the integrity principle and the dynamic original The principle of balance and the principle of feasibility are based on the conclusion of system analysis. The traditional measurement of the hazard source demand is the deterministic demand of the hazard source. It focuses on the demand quantity of the fire-fighting resources after the fire of the hazard source, and ignores the possibility of the fire and the fire-fighting resources. The impact of demand makes it difficult to accurately measure the risk For the long-term demand of the risk source, the non-deterministic demand is put forward. The non-deterministic demand is composed of both the deterministic demand factor of the hazard source and the fire-occurrence probability element. The key to the calculation of the non-deterministic demand is to determine the probability of the fire, and the probability of the occurrence of the fire is mainly in danger. The nature of the risk source is determined by the nature of the risk source, which has certain statistical regularity, and the method of fitting the characteristic parameters of the historical data of the occurrence frequency of the fire and the hazard source is proposed to determine the fire probability of the hazard source. and a fire probability neural network algorithm is designed for regression prediction. The effectiveness of the neural network algorithm for the verification of the neurofire probability is verified by the oil tank. It is not very objective and scientific to measure the dimension of fire-fighting ability, and it is not objective and scientific to measure the fire-extinguishing ability. It is found that two characteristics are found through the study of the fire-extinguishing ability: the elements that make up the fire-fighting ability There is a certain level of hierarchy; the elements of different levels have a certain proportion to the quantity. according to the proportion, the supply of the fire-extinguishing agent is converted layer by layer, and the fire-extinguishing capacity is characterized by the method, A special mathematical model is given, and the value of objective and scientific fire-extinguishing ability is obtained. Three squadrons (sites) are calculated by using this model.) The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by the fire-fighting ability of the whole area. According to the difference between the site and the hazard source, the resource allocation method can be divided into the site configuration mode and the fire-fighting ring capital The source configuration mode provides a concept of hazard source fire cost for a more accurate comparison of the two resource allocation modes, It is concluded that the method of resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is not worse than that of the site, and it is more suitable. In addition, the number of resources is different and directly affects the fire cost of the fire-fighting ring. This indicates that the different resource allocation has a great influence on the fire cost, and the problem of the optimization of the resource quantity of the fire-extinguishing ring, that is, the site The allocation of investment or how to adjust the resource allocation quantity of the site makes the fire cost the lowest, and the discussion is made. The minimum fire cost of some kind of resource in the region is the optimization goal, and the corresponding optimization is constructed. In this paper, the corresponding calculation method is provided, and the quantitative basis for optimizing the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is provided. The paper mainly studies the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring from the quantitative point of view.
【學位授予單位】：同濟大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2006
【分類號】：D631.6
本文編號：2423354
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the economy causes the frequency of fire accident to rise, the harmfulness is increased, and the demand quantity of the society to the fire-fighting resources is correspondingly increased, so it is necessary to improve the current situation of fire-fighting resource allocation and adapt to the demand of the continuous social development. The resource allocation between the areas can solve some problems existing in the existing fire-fighting work, such as the increasing demand of the hazard source, the shortage of the fire-fighting equipment and the fire-fighting personnel and the repeated construction of the management department, etc., and the development of the fire-fighting equipment, The enhancement of information technology and the improvement of economy provide material and technical support for the resource allocation between the regions. The research on fire-fighting resource allocation at home and abroad has achieved some achievements, but there are some problems. The main performance is that the research of fire-fighting resource demand of the dangerous source is from the technical point of view, and the fire-fighting and rescue needed after the fire of the hazard source The resource is calculated and the fire is ignored. In the quantitative study of fire-fighting ability, a dimensionless value of fire-extinguishing ability or organizational effectiveness is obtained by means of the analytic hierarchy process, and this method is not biased in some cases; and because it does not have the physical meaning, it makes it The application range is limited. In the existing research of the resource allocation method, it is difficult to enter the resource allocation method because of the lack of the standard to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the layout. The fire-extinguishing resource allocation is studied from the system analysis angle, which is based on a certain standard of fire-fighting resource allocation after the demand-size of the demand side of the fire-fighting resource and the fire-extinguishing ability of the fire-fighting resource-generating party are measured. The appropriate fire-extinguishing resource allocation method is selected. The demand of fire-fighting resources mainly comes from the hazard source, which determines the frequency and quantity of the demand for fire-fighting resources; the supply of the fire-fighting resources is mainly from various fire-fighting organizations, and the factors that affect the fire-fighting ability are mainly: the fire-extinguishing agent and the fire-fighting Personnel, fire equipment and communication facilities, etc. The fire-fighting resource allocation needs to follow several principles, that is, the integrity principle and the dynamic original The principle of balance and the principle of feasibility are based on the conclusion of system analysis. The traditional measurement of the hazard source demand is the deterministic demand of the hazard source. It focuses on the demand quantity of the fire-fighting resources after the fire of the hazard source, and ignores the possibility of the fire and the fire-fighting resources. The impact of demand makes it difficult to accurately measure the risk For the long-term demand of the risk source, the non-deterministic demand is put forward. The non-deterministic demand is composed of both the deterministic demand factor of the hazard source and the fire-occurrence probability element. The key to the calculation of the non-deterministic demand is to determine the probability of the fire, and the probability of the occurrence of the fire is mainly in danger. The nature of the risk source is determined by the nature of the risk source, which has certain statistical regularity, and the method of fitting the characteristic parameters of the historical data of the occurrence frequency of the fire and the hazard source is proposed to determine the fire probability of the hazard source. and a fire probability neural network algorithm is designed for regression prediction. The effectiveness of the neural network algorithm for the verification of the neurofire probability is verified by the oil tank. It is not very objective and scientific to measure the dimension of fire-fighting ability, and it is not objective and scientific to measure the fire-extinguishing ability. It is found that two characteristics are found through the study of the fire-extinguishing ability: the elements that make up the fire-fighting ability There is a certain level of hierarchy; the elements of different levels have a certain proportion to the quantity. according to the proportion, the supply of the fire-extinguishing agent is converted layer by layer, and the fire-extinguishing capacity is characterized by the method, A special mathematical model is given, and the value of objective and scientific fire-extinguishing ability is obtained. Three squadrons (sites) are calculated by using this model.) The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by the fire-fighting ability of the whole area. According to the difference between the site and the hazard source, the resource allocation method can be divided into the site configuration mode and the fire-fighting ring capital The source configuration mode provides a concept of hazard source fire cost for a more accurate comparison of the two resource allocation modes, It is concluded that the method of resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is not worse than that of the site, and it is more suitable. In addition, the number of resources is different and directly affects the fire cost of the fire-fighting ring. This indicates that the different resource allocation has a great influence on the fire cost, and the problem of the optimization of the resource quantity of the fire-extinguishing ring, that is, the site The allocation of investment or how to adjust the resource allocation quantity of the site makes the fire cost the lowest, and the discussion is made. The minimum fire cost of some kind of resource in the region is the optimization goal, and the corresponding optimization is constructed. In this paper, the corresponding calculation method is provided, and the quantitative basis for optimizing the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring is provided. The paper mainly studies the resource allocation of the fire-extinguishing ring from the quantitative point of view.
【學位授予單位】：同濟大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2006
【分類號】：D631.6
【引證文獻】
相關博士學位論文 前2條
1 周俊;城市火災消防規(guī)劃支持方法研究[D];武漢大學;2011年
2 周天;城市火災風險和防火能力研究[D];同濟大學;2007年
相關碩士學位論文 前1條
1 方晨;海上突發(fā)事故應急資源優(yōu)化配置問題研究[D];大連海事大學;2011年
本文編號：2423354
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