干旱在從古至今一直影響和制約著經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會的發(fā)展。由于中國特殊的地理、氣候、水文特征情況,更是深受其害。因此,正確理解多年尺度干旱特征和重現(xiàn)期對干旱風(fēng)險評估至關(guān)重要。本文以中國大陸區(qū)域和七個子區(qū)域為研究對象,選取全國552個氣象站1961-2013年的日氣象數(shù)據(jù),計算其氣象干旱特征變量,研究區(qū)域干旱變量聯(lián)合概率時空分布和重現(xiàn)期,并進(jìn)行深度的干旱分析,以期為區(qū)域和全國的旱災(zāi)防控、用水量合理調(diào)配、水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供一定的理論支撐。本文計算了多時間尺度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)（SPI）、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸發(fā)蒸騰指數(shù)（SPEI）、綜合指數(shù)（CI）和有效干旱指數(shù)（EDI）,分別用Classical、Spearman和Kendall方法對各指標(biāo)的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了分析,來研究干旱演變規(guī)律�；谌珖战邓�?dāng)?shù)據(jù),提取一維干旱歷時（Dd）、干旱烈度（Ds）、烈度峰值（Dp）和干旱間隔（Di）的單變量指標(biāo),分析其在各個分區(qū)和全國的特征。這些干旱變量指標(biāo)之間有顯著的相關(guān)性并遵循不同的分布,可用Copulas函數(shù)用來構(gòu)建變量之間的聯(lián)合分布。用Archimedean copulas函數(shù)從19種干旱變量組中選出3種,分別是干旱歷時和... 

【文章頁數(shù)】：150 頁

【學(xué)位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
ABSTRACT 摘要 Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Background to the study
1.2 Drought characteristics
1.3 Classification of drought
1.4 Drought index and drought identification
1.5 Probabilistic Characterization of Drought
1.6 Copula and Drought Frequency Analysis
1.7 Research Gap
1.8 General Aims and Objectives Chapter 2. Study Area and Data
2.1 Study Area
2.2 Study sites and data
2.3 Drought Coverage Area
2.4 Structure of the research Chapter 3. Drought Indices and Univariate Analysis
3.1 Drought Index and Univariate Analysis
3.2 Methodology
    3.2.1 Descriptive statistics
    3.2.2 Potential evapotranspiration
    3.2.3 Computation of Drought Indices
    
3.2.3.1 Standardized Precipitation Index
    
3.2.3.2 Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
    
3.2.3.3 Composite Index
    
3.2.3.4 Effective Drought Index
    3.2.4 Drought event identification and characterization
    3.2.5 Selection of appropriate marginal distributions
    3.2.6 Evaluation criteria
    3.2.7 Estimation of Univariate Drought Return Period
    3.2.8 Spatial interpolation
3.3 Results and Discussion
    3.3.1 Spatiotemporal variations of climatic variables
    3.3.2 Drought indices and their frequency distribution
    3.3.3 Drought Characteristics
    3.3.4 The Spatial and Temporal extent of Drought Characteristics
    
3.3.4.1 Spatial extent of Drought Characteristics
    
3.3.4.2 Temporal extent of Severe Drought events
    3.3.5 Correlation of Drought Characteristics
    3.3.6 Estimation of Effective drought index
    3.3.7 Marginal distribution fit of drought variables
    3.3.8 Univariate Return Period Analyses
    3.3.9 Relative performance of drought indices
3.4 Brief summary Chapter 4. Frequency analysis using Two-Variate Archimedean Copula
4.1 Background of two-variate joint copula
4.2 Methodology
    4.2.1 Theoretical aspects of copula functions
    4.2.2 Bivariate Archimedean copulas
    4.2.3 Copulas Parameter Estimation
    4.2.4 Selecting the Best Copula Family
    4.2.5 Probabilities of Drought Events
    
4.2.5.1 Bivariate joint occurrence probability
    
4.2.5.2 Bivariate joint Conditional probability
    4.2.6 Return Periods of Drought Events
    
4.2.6.1 Bivariate joint return period
    
4.2.6.2 Conditional joint return period
4.3 Results and Discussion
    4.3.1 Analysis of drought climatology
    4.3.2 Drought Event Characterization
    4.3.3 Analyzing trivariate dependence between drought variables
    4.3.4 Estimation of bivariate joint distributions
    4.3.5 Regional Characteristics of drought events
    
4.3.5.1 Regional joint probability of drought events
    
4.3.5.2 Regional bivariate return period of drought events
    4.3.6 Spatial Characteristics of drought events
    
4.3.6.1 Spatial distribution of drought probabilities
    
4.3.6.2 Spatial pattern of bivariate drought return period
4.4 Brief Conclusion Chapter 5. Frequency analysis using Three-Variate Archimedean Copula
5.1 Background of Three-Variate Copula
5.2 Methodology
    5.2.1 Empirical trivariate distribution of drought variables
    5.2.2 Trivariate cumulative probability distribution of drought variables
    5.2.3 Trivariate dependence modeling of droughts using Archimedean copula
    5.2.4 Selection of appropriate Trivariate copula family
    5.2.5 Trivariate frequency analysis of droughts
    
5.2.5.1 Trivariate joint occurrence probability of drought events
    
5.2.5.2 Trivariate return period of drought events
5.3 Results and Discussions
    5.3.1 Copula-based joint dependence modeling of drought variables
    5.3.2 Comparison of multivariate probability of drought events
    
5.3.2.1 Regional trivariate joint probability of drought events
    
5.3.2.2 Spatial pattern of multivariate drought probabilities
    5.3.3 Comparison of multivariate return periods of drought events
    
5.3.3.1 Regional trivariate return period of drought events
    
5.3.3.2 Spatial pattern of multivariate drought return period
5.4 Brief Conclusion Chapter 6. Frequency analysis using Four-Variate Archimedean Copula
6.1 Background of Four-variate dimensional Copula
6.2 Methodology
    6.2.1Empirical four-variate distribution of drought variables
    6.2.2 Joint cumulative probability distribution of drought variables
    6.2.3 Modeling four-variate drought variables using copulas
    6.2.4 Selection of appropriate copula function
    6.2.5 Four-variate joint drought frequency analysis
6.3 Results and Discussions
    6.3.1 Drought variable and four-variate dependence
    6.3.2 Marginal Distribution for Inter-arrival time
    6.3.3 Copula-based four-variate joint distributions
    6.3.4 Four-variate joint drought frequency analysis
    
6.3.4.1 Regional four-variate probabilities of drought events
    
6.3.4.2 Regional four-variate return period of drought events
    
6.3.4.3 Spatial distribution of four-variate probability and return periods
6.4 Brief Summary Chapter 7. Conclusions and suggestions
7.1 General Conclusions
7.2 Future work References Acknowledgements Author’s Introduction


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