【摘要】：水是一切生命生存和發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),人類的一切活動(dòng)均建立在對(duì)水資源的開(kāi)發(fā)與利用的基礎(chǔ)之上。由于水資源與自然、社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)之間有著千絲萬(wàn)縷的聯(lián)系,使水資源表現(xiàn)出多功能性和不可替代性,因此水資源成為支撐社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基本要素之一。但是隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,水資源面臨巨大的壓力,比較突出的問(wèn)題就是水資源短缺問(wèn)題。水資源短缺成為制約社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的瓶頸因素之一,因此必須要實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源的合理高效利用,這就需要進(jìn)行水資源的合理配置。本文以濟(jì)寧市為例,進(jìn)行了濟(jì)寧市水資源的優(yōu)化配置研究,并且在配置過(guò)程中充分考慮水情、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景的不確定性,實(shí)現(xiàn)了動(dòng)態(tài)情景下的水資源優(yōu)化配置,更加科學(xué)、合理,有利于實(shí)現(xiàn)濟(jì)寧市水資源的可持續(xù)利用,具有指導(dǎo)意義。本文以2010年為現(xiàn)狀水平年,規(guī)劃水平年為2015年和2020年,主要進(jìn)行了如下幾方面的研究： (1)濟(jì)寧市水資源調(diào)查評(píng)價(jià)和水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用分析,得到濟(jì)寧市多年平均地表水資源量及其可利用量、地下水資源量及其可利用量、水資源總量及其可利用總量,并對(duì)濟(jì)寧市的供用水現(xiàn)狀及近10年的供用水結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了分析。 (2)濟(jì)寧市供需水預(yù)測(cè)研究。需水預(yù)測(cè)為動(dòng)態(tài)情景下的需水預(yù)測(cè),本文分不同需水方案(基本方案、推薦方案)在不同水情(保證率P=50%、P=75%)、不同社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情景(方案Ⅰ、方案Ⅱ、方案Ⅲ)下對(duì)近期規(guī)劃水平年2015年以及中期規(guī)劃水平年2020年的需水量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)；供水預(yù)測(cè)在水資源現(xiàn)狀調(diào)查評(píng)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)上,綜合考慮水資源的特點(diǎn)以及新增供水工程建設(shè),并充分利用非常規(guī)水及跨流域調(diào)水,得到各規(guī)劃水平年不同保證率(P=50%、P=75%)下的總可供水量。 (3)濟(jì)寧市規(guī)劃年動(dòng)態(tài)情景下的水資源優(yōu)化配置。根據(jù)供需水預(yù)測(cè)方案,生成水資源配置方案集,擬定4種配置情景,然后建立水資源優(yōu)化配置模型進(jìn)行優(yōu)化計(jì)算,得到不同水平年的配置結(jié)果并對(duì)配置結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析。 (4)濟(jì)寧市配置方案實(shí)施效果評(píng)價(jià)及方案比選。選取協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)作為主要指標(biāo)對(duì)配置方案進(jìn)行實(shí)施效果評(píng)價(jià)；選定缺水量、缺水率、綜合協(xié)調(diào)度作為主要評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),進(jìn)行方案的優(yōu)劣對(duì)比,選擇最優(yōu)方案。
[Abstract]:Water is the material basis for the survival and development of all life, and all human activities are based on the exploitation and utilization of water resources. As water resources are closely related to nature, society and economy, water resources are multifunctional and irreplaceable. Therefore, water resources have become one of the basic factors supporting the development of social economy. However, with the rapid development of social economy, water resources are facing great pressure. The shortage of water resources has become one of the bottleneck factors restricting the development of social economy. Therefore, it is necessary to realize the rational and efficient utilization of water resources, which requires the rational allocation of water resources. Taking Jining City as an example, this paper studies the optimal allocation of water resources in Jining City, and fully considers the water situation and the uncertainty of social and economic development scenarios in the process of allocation, and realizes the optimal allocation of water resources under dynamic scenarios, which is more scientific. It is reasonable and helpful to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Jining city. In this paper, 2010 is the current level year, and the planning level year is 2015 and 2020. The main researches are as follows: (1) water resources investigation and evaluation and analysis of water resources development and utilization in Jining. The average surface water resource quantity and its utilization quantity, groundwater water resources quantity and available quantity, water resources total amount and available total amount in Jining city are obtained. The present situation of water supply and water supply structure in Jining city are analyzed. (2) study on water supply and demand forecast in Jining city. Water demand forecasting is a kind of water demand prediction under dynamic scenarios. In this paper, different water demand schemes (basic schemes, recommended schemes) and different socio-economic development scenarios (scheme I, scheme II) are divided into different water conditions (assurance rate P50%) and different socio-economic development scenarios (scheme I, scheme II). The water demand for 2015 and 2020 for the recent planning level year and the medium-term planning level year 2020 are forecasted under Programme III; The prediction of water supply is based on the investigation and evaluation of the present situation of water resources, considering comprehensively the characteristics of water resources and the construction of new water supply projects, and making full use of unconventional water and water transfer across river basins to obtain different guaranteed rates (P50) per year at various planning levels. The total available water supply is 75%. (3) optimal allocation of water resources under dynamic scenario of planning year in Jining city. According to the forecast scheme of water supply and demand, the water resources allocation scheme set is generated, and four kinds of allocation scenarios are drawn up, and then the optimal allocation model of water resources is established for optimal calculation, and the allocation results of different level years are obtained and the allocation results are analyzed. (4) Evaluation of the effect of Jining's configuration scheme and comparison of the scheme. The coordination coefficient is selected as the main index to evaluate the implementation effect of the allocation scheme, and the water shortage, water shortage rate and comprehensive coordination degree are selected as the main evaluation indexes, and the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme are compared and the optimal scheme is selected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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