【摘要】：水資源是自然資源的重要組成部分,是生態(tài)環(huán)境的重要構(gòu)成要素,是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)。江蘇省人口密度位于全國(guó)第四位、是東部經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),隨著城市化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)及全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)腳步的加快,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)于水資源的需求日益擴(kuò)大,帶來(lái)的水資源供需不協(xié)調(diào)問(wèn)題也日漸突出,水資源短缺問(wèn)題已成為社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程重要的制約因素,提高水資源利用效率已迫在眉睫。全面客觀地研究江蘇省用水效率的時(shí)間分異性,探究影響水資源利用相對(duì)效率的相關(guān)因素,對(duì)江蘇省節(jié)水型社會(huì)建設(shè)規(guī)劃相關(guān)政策的制定、對(duì)策建議的實(shí)施具有重要的意義。本文基于國(guó)內(nèi)外水資源利用效率定性研究的相關(guān)成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)和重要成果,結(jié)合傳統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析法及其改進(jìn)方法,研究2005-2014年江蘇省用水相對(duì)效率,并探索規(guī)模冗余率及技術(shù)冗余率與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,應(yīng)用典型相關(guān)分析法研究影響江蘇省水資源利用相對(duì)效率的相關(guān)因素。本文首先對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析模型以及江蘇省水資源利用現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行闡述,在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)水資源利用相對(duì)效率進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究。選取生活、生產(chǎn)用水,從業(yè)人員、固定資產(chǎn)投資和土地利用面積作為輸入指標(biāo),地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值作為輸出指標(biāo),并結(jié)合層次分析法,將決策者的影響納入研究中,結(jié)合江蘇省2005-2014年相關(guān)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用傳統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)包括分析法求出各指標(biāo)規(guī)模冗余率,利用改進(jìn)的數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析法求出技術(shù)冗余率,進(jìn)而求出江蘇省這10年間的水資源利用相對(duì)效率,研究其時(shí)間分異特征。為江蘇省建設(shè)節(jié)水型社會(huì)工作的開(kāi)展提供科學(xué)理論依據(jù)。研究結(jié)果如下:(1)從時(shí)間跨度來(lái)看,江蘇省水資源規(guī)模冗余率與技術(shù)冗余率隨時(shí)間變化不斷下降,相對(duì)利用效率隨著時(shí)間的變化整體處于平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),證明了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展推動(dòng)了社會(huì)整體技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,管理水平的上升,從而促進(jìn)了水資源利用相對(duì)效率的提高。探究水資源利用規(guī)模冗余率與人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間的關(guān)系,呈倒U形曲線,與環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線相吻合,其中2006年為拐點(diǎn)年,06年之前人均收入較低,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)模屬于粗放式,需要依靠資源消耗來(lái)帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展;06年之后,在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展過(guò)程中,資源利用相對(duì)效率逐漸受到重視,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展不再單純依靠資源的消耗,從而促進(jìn)了用水相對(duì)效率的提高。而技術(shù)冗余率與人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值則呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展推動(dòng)了科技的進(jìn)步,從而提高了水資源利用相對(duì)效率。(2)影響技術(shù)冗余率和規(guī)模冗余率的相關(guān)因素,通過(guò)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)并不完全相同;其中與技術(shù)冗余率呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系的因素為水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用率、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重和萬(wàn)元地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值用水量,與規(guī)模冗余率正相關(guān)的因素是固定資產(chǎn)占地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值比重、人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和萬(wàn)元地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值用水量;兩組典型變量的顯著水平均為0.001,說(shuō)明典型變量之間相關(guān)性是顯著的。(3)江蘇省應(yīng)從水資源管理體制、節(jié)水技術(shù)、公民節(jié)水意識(shí)等方面有效提高水資源利用相對(duì)效率。
[Abstract]:Water resources are an important part of natural resources, an important component of ecological environment, and an important material basis for social and economic development. The population density of Jiangsu Province is located in the fourth place in the country. It is an economically developed area in the eastern part of China. With the increasing demand, the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become increasingly prominent. The shortage of water resources has become an important restrictive factor in the process of social and economic development. It is imminent to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources. Relevant factors are of great significance to the formulation of relevant policies and the implementation of countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of water-saving society in Jiangsu Province.Based on the successful experience and important results of qualitative research on water use efficiency both at home and abroad, and combined with traditional data envelopment analysis and its improvement methods, this paper studies the relative water use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014. Efficiency, and explore the relationship between scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate and economic development, using canonical correlation analysis method to study the relevant factors affecting the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province. Efficiency is systematically studied. Life, production water, employees, investment in fixed assets and land use area are selected as input indicators, GDP as output indicators, and the impact of decision makers is included in the study by combining with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the relevant indicators data of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014, traditional data inclusion analysis is used. The method calculates the scale redundancy rate of each index, uses the improved data envelopment analysis method to calculate the technical redundancy rate, then calculates the relative efficiency of water resources utilization in Jiangsu Province in the past 10 years, and studies its time differentiation characteristics. The scale redundancy rate and technical redundancy rate of water resources in Jiangsu Province declined with time and the relative utilization efficiency increased steadily with time. It is proved that the economic development has promoted the progress of the whole society's technology and the rise of the management level, thus promoting the improvement of the relative efficiency of water resources utilization. The relationship between the redundancy rate of resource utilization scale and the per capita GDP shows an inverted U-shaped curve, which is consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The year 2006 is the turning point, the per capita income before 2006 is low, and the scale of economic development is extensive, which needs to rely on resource consumption to promote economic development; after 2006, the social economy will be further developed. In the process of development, the relative efficiency of resource utilization has been paid more and more attention. Economic development is no longer simply dependent on the consumption of resources, thus promoting the improvement of relative efficiency of water use. (2) Relative factors affecting technical redundancy and scale redundancy are not exactly the same; the factors positively correlated with technical redundancy are water resources utilization, the proportion of tertiary industry and the water consumption of 10,000 yuan of GDP, and the factors positively correlated with scale redundancy are the production of fixed assets in the region. The proportion of gross value, the per capita gross domestic product and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan gross domestic product are all 0.001, indicating that the correlation between the two typical variables is significant. (3) Jiangsu Province should effectively improve the relative efficiency of water resources utilization from the aspects of water resources management system, water-saving technology, water-saving consciousness of citizens.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.9

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