【摘要】：為研究氣候變化對我國華南沿海地區(qū)的水資源的影響,以南流江流域作為研究對象,應(yīng)用具有物理機(jī)制的分布式水文模型SWAT對流域徑流進(jìn)行模擬。以常樂站1970~1994年月徑流數(shù)據(jù)對模型進(jìn)行率定,以1995~2013年月徑流數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行驗證,基于南流江流域氣候變化預(yù)估成果設(shè)置20種未來氣候情景,模擬不同氣候變化條件下的流域水文過程,計算不同情景下南流江流域徑流及蒸散發(fā)的變化,分析氣候變化條件下的水資源響應(yīng)程度。結(jié)果表明:月徑流模擬值與實測過程線總體擬合程度很好(R20.85,Ens0.8),SWAT模型在南流江流域具有較好適用性;降水是影響南流江流域徑流變化的主要氣候因子,而影響蒸散變化的主要氣候因子是氣溫。降水不變時,氣溫每上升1℃,年均蒸散發(fā)量增加9.1 mm,年均徑流量減少9.2 mm;氣溫不變時,降水量每增加10%,年均蒸散發(fā)量增加5.1 mm,年均徑流量增加159.3 mm。預(yù)計到本世紀(jì)中葉,南流江流域年均徑流變化幅度為-29.6%~27.6%,到本世紀(jì)末的變化幅度為-30.5%~26.7%,這將對南流江流域帶來一系列的問題與挑戰(zhàn)。
[Abstract]:In order to study the influence of climate change on the water resources in the coastal areas of South China, a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) with physical mechanism was used to simulate the runoff in the south Liujiang River basin. The model was determined by monthly runoff data from Changle Station in 1970-1994, and verified by monthly runoff data from 1995 to 2013. Based on the prediction results of climate change in Nanliu River Basin, 20 future climate scenarios were set up to simulate the hydrological process of the watershed under different climate change conditions. The changes of runoff and evapotranspiration in Nanliu River basin under different scenarios were calculated and the response of water resources to climate change was analyzed. The results show that the simulation value of monthly runoff fits well with the measured process line (R20.85 Ens0.8) and the SWAT model is suitable for the Nanliujiang River Basin, and the precipitation is the main climatic factor affecting the runoff variation in the Nanliu River Basin. The main climatic factor affecting evapotranspiration is air temperature. The annual evapotranspiration increased by 9.1 mm and the annual runoff decreased by 9.2 mm when the temperature increased by 1 鈩，

本文編號：2197810