【摘要】：基于長沙市水資源現(xiàn)狀,為平衡居民生活用水、經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)用水和環(huán)境生態(tài)用水之間的關(guān)系,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方法,建立長沙市水資源—人口—經(jīng)濟(jì)—生態(tài)環(huán)境的耦合系統(tǒng),模型模擬了現(xiàn)狀延續(xù)型、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展新型、節(jié)水治污型和綜合協(xié)調(diào)型四種發(fā)展模式,選取三產(chǎn)比值、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)年增長率、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)年增長率、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)年增長率、畝均用水量、萬元工業(yè)增加值用水量、城市化率、水資源開發(fā)利用率、工業(yè)用水重復(fù)利用率、生活污水排放系數(shù)、污水處理率、中水回用率、人口增長率、工業(yè)污水排放系數(shù)以及城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村人均用水量作為決策變量,選取GDP、人口數(shù)量、居民生活需水量、經(jīng)濟(jì)需水總量、供需壓力作為主要評價指標(biāo)。 結(jié)果表明：綜合協(xié)調(diào)型模擬結(jié)果最佳,具有最強(qiáng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力,選取為最優(yōu)方案；第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)分別保持10%、12%、12%年增長率且節(jié)流治污情況與現(xiàn)狀延續(xù)型保持一致的方案,供需壓力將達(dá)到節(jié)流治污方案的兩倍多；經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)用水對水資源供需壓力的影響遠(yuǎn)大于居民生活用水和環(huán)境生態(tài)用水；通過適當(dāng)降低人均用水量來平衡因人口數(shù)量增長而增加的居民生活用水是可行的。
[Abstract]:Based on the present situation of water resources in Changsha City, in order to balance the relationship among household water consumption, economic production water use and environmental ecological water use, a coupling system of water resources, population, economy and ecological environment in Changsha is established by using the method of system dynamics. The model simulates four development models, namely, the continuation of current situation, the new type of economic development, the type of water-saving and pollution control and the type of comprehensive coordination. The ratio of three industries, the annual growth rate of the primary industry, the annual growth rate of the secondary industry, the annual growth rate of the tertiary industry, and the average water consumption per mu are selected. Ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption, urbanization rate, utilization ratio of water resources development, reuse of industrial water, domestic sewage discharge coefficient, sewage treatment rate, reusing rate of reclaimed water, population growth rate, industrial sewage discharge coefficient and cities and towns, The per capita water consumption in rural areas is taken as the decision-making variable, and the main evaluation indexes are GDP, population, water demand of residents, total economic water demand and pressure of supply and demand. The results show that the integrated and coordinated simulation results are the best, with the strongest ability of sustainable development, and selected as the optimal scheme; the first, second, and third industries maintain 10 / 12 and 12 / 12 annual growth rates, respectively, and the current situation of reducing and controlling pollution is consistent with the continuation of the current situation. The pressure of supply and demand will be more than twice that of the scheme of reducing expenditure and controlling pollution, the influence of economic production water on the pressure of supply and demand of water resources is much greater than that of domestic water and ecological water of the environment. It is feasible to reduce the per capita water consumption to balance the increase of water consumption due to the increase of population.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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