發(fā)布時間：2018-05-20 21:06

  本文選題：水資源 + 因素分解�。� 參考：《農業(yè)工程學報》2017年12期

【摘要】：黑龍江省水資源系統(tǒng)的平衡對保障區(qū)域工農業(yè)發(fā)展至關重要。由于糧食主產區(qū)發(fā)展過程中水資源存在許多不確定性因素,在追求經濟增長的同時,黑龍江省水資源也存在著較大的風險。該文以黑龍江省及其13個地級市為研究區(qū)域,基于熵權物元模型評價水資源短缺風險,利用平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)分析影響用水量變化的驅動因素,通過耦合協(xié)調模型和GIS軟件分析影響水資源短缺的因素及其區(qū)域差異性,采用經濟與資源雙重導向的優(yōu)化路徑,解決水資源短缺風險問題。結果表明,2014年黑龍江省整體水資源短缺處于III級-中等風險,水土資源處于拮抗耦合中度協(xié)調級別且土地資源發(fā)展略微滯后;鶴崗、雙鴨山、大慶和佳木斯水資源短缺為V級,其中大慶市水資源發(fā)展明顯滯后。隨著經濟社會的持續(xù)發(fā)展,應結合區(qū)域資源稟賦和風險特征,制定合理的水資源開發(fā)利用方案。
[Abstract]:The balance of water resources system in Heilongjiang Province is very important to ensure the development of regional industry and agriculture. Because there are many uncertain factors in the development of main grain producing areas, the water resources in Heilongjiang Province also have great risks while pursuing economic growth. In this paper, based on entropy weight matter-element model, the risk of water shortage is evaluated in Heilongjiang Province and 13 prefecture-level cities. The driving factors of water consumption change are analyzed by using logarithmic mean Divisia indexLMDI. By using the coupled coordination model and GIS software, the factors affecting water resources shortage and their regional differences are analyzed, and the problem of water resources shortage risk is solved by using the economic and resource oriented optimization path. The results showed that the overall water shortage in Heilongjiang Province in 2014 was at the III level-medium risk, the soil and water resources were in the antagonistic coupling medium coordination level and the land resources development was lagging slightly, while the water resources shortage in Hegang, Shuangyashan, Daqing and Jiamusi was V grade. The development of water resources in Daqing obviously lags behind. With the sustainable development of economy and society, rational water resources exploitation and utilization scheme should be formulated in combination with regional resource endowment and risk characteristics.
【作者單位】： 東北農業(yè)大學水利與土木工程學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(51679040;51209038) 黑龍江省自然科學基金(面上項目)(E2016004) 黑龍江省博士后資助(LBH-Z13049) 東北農業(yè)大學“青年才俊”項目(14QC47)
【分類號】：TV213.4

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 張慶田;廊坊市水資源短缺狀況及對策[J];河北水利;2000年02期

2 錢軍祥;越南水資源短缺將影響農業(yè)和發(fā)電[J];水利水電快報;2001年13期

3 馬元s，

本文編號：1916235