發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-26 14:06

  本文選題：水資源 + 多維協(xié)同配置　； 參考：《中國(guó)水利水電科學(xué)研究院》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展,人類對(duì)水資源的掠奪性開發(fā)利用,使得人與水之間的關(guān)系愈發(fā)緊張。特別是20世紀(jì)中后期以來(lái),由于全球人口爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)、水資源的不合理開發(fā)與利用,導(dǎo)致大范圍水資源短缺與浪費(fèi)并存、水污染頻發(fā)、生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化、區(qū)域或國(guó)家之間爭(zhēng)水現(xiàn)象日益嚴(yán)重。水資源短缺正在取代石油成為在全世界引起危機(jī)的主要問(wèn)題,并已成為二十一世紀(jì)人類所面臨的最為嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題之一。水資源配置是解決水資源短缺問(wèn)題的有效途徑之一。通過(guò)合理配置有限的水資源,使水資源系統(tǒng)-社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)-生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)之間協(xié)同發(fā)展,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)“人與自然、人與水和諧”,確保水資源系統(tǒng)得到良性循環(huán)與可持續(xù)利用,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)實(shí)現(xiàn)各行業(yè)之間、各區(qū)域之間協(xié)同可持續(xù)發(fā)展,生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)獲得修復(fù)、穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展。本文以境外地表水替代境內(nèi)地下水為出發(fā)點(diǎn),在以往水資源配置模型研究的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)“水資源系統(tǒng)-社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)-生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)”協(xié)同發(fā)展的理念,構(gòu)建一種基于“兩次迭代、三次配置”的多維協(xié)同配置模型,并以沈陽(yáng)市為研究區(qū)進(jìn)行實(shí)際應(yīng)用,驗(yàn)證該模型的合理性與可操作性。本次研究拓展了水資源配置研究的科學(xué)內(nèi)涵、進(jìn)一步豐富和發(fā)展了水資源配置模型技術(shù)及應(yīng)用范疇。其主要研究成果包括：(1)在系統(tǒng)診斷和評(píng)價(jià)水資源稟賦條件、開發(fā)利用現(xiàn)狀與城市供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,以壓采地下水源規(guī)劃為依據(jù),通過(guò)合理布局常規(guī)水源、應(yīng)急水源和戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備水源,形成“長(zhǎng)短結(jié)合、遠(yuǎn)近互補(bǔ)”全時(shí)空覆蓋的城市供水“三重安全”保障格局,為制定未來(lái)城市供水應(yīng)急預(yù)案提供參考。(2)在全面收集和梳理大量水文地質(zhì)資料及鉆孔剖面等相關(guān)成果的基礎(chǔ)上,首次構(gòu)建沈陽(yáng)市平原區(qū)三維地層空間結(jié)構(gòu)模型,提出面向土壤次生鹽漬化、道路翻漿和地鐵、地下構(gòu)筑物抗浮與防水設(shè)計(jì)的地下水控制性紅線上限水位,以及防止地面沉降、地裂縫等環(huán)境地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的地下水控制性紅線下限水位,為實(shí)現(xiàn)地下水雙控及與地表水、外調(diào)水等之間的協(xié)同配置提供了重要依據(jù)和支撐。(3)在構(gòu)建平原區(qū)三維地層結(jié)構(gòu)模型和水文地質(zhì)概念模型的基礎(chǔ)上,建立地下水?dāng)?shù)值模擬模型,通過(guò)模型識(shí)別和驗(yàn)證,確定和提出一整套模擬區(qū)水文地質(zhì)參數(shù)和各種均衡要素,為地下水“雙控”和動(dòng)態(tài)可開采量計(jì)算等奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。(4)在研究區(qū)三維地層結(jié)構(gòu)模型及水文地質(zhì)參數(shù)分區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)上,以水資源協(xié)同配置思想和水均衡原理為基礎(chǔ),提出一種不同水平年不同水資源配置格局的地下水可開采量動(dòng)態(tài)計(jì)算方法--基于“初次配置-判斷調(diào)整-再次配置”的地下水可開采量耦合迭代方法,為不同水平年面向不同水資源配置格局的地下水可開采量動(dòng)態(tài)計(jì)算提供一種新方法。(5)根據(jù)科學(xué)發(fā)展觀和可持續(xù)、生態(tài)文明與協(xié)同發(fā)展的理念,以水資源配置模型為主導(dǎo)牽引模塊,綜合運(yùn)用城市供水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析、需水多方案分析、三維地層結(jié)構(gòu)模型、水均衡模型、地下水?dāng)?shù)值模型等構(gòu)建面向河道內(nèi)生態(tài)環(huán)境需水過(guò)程與地下水“雙控”的水資源多維協(xié)同配置模型,并提出一種基于“兩次迭代、三次配置”的多維協(xié)同配置計(jì)算流程,以支撐研究區(qū)城市水源置換后水資源配置格局調(diào)整及相應(yīng)的地下水動(dòng)態(tài)演變趨勢(shì)分析等工作,為沈陽(yáng)市地下水封井壓采、城市應(yīng)急水源及戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備水源布局和最終形成面向“人與自然、人與水和諧“的水資源協(xié)同配置格局,以及實(shí)行最嚴(yán)格的水資源管理制度等提供技術(shù)支撐。(6)根據(jù)所構(gòu)建的多維協(xié)同配置模型和提出的計(jì)算流程,通過(guò)不同組合方案的長(zhǎng)系列逐月調(diào)節(jié)計(jì)算和綜合比選,最終確定研究區(qū)不同水平年不同保證率面向河道內(nèi)生態(tài)環(huán)境需水過(guò)程與地下水“雙控”的水資源多維協(xié)同配置推薦結(jié)果。其中2030年研究區(qū)需水總量為39.88億m3,供水總量為39.87億m3,包括地表水供水量為5.65億m3,地下水供水量為18.51億m3,再生水供水量為3.14億m3,外調(diào)水供水量為12.57億m3,缺水量為156萬(wàn)m3,缺水率為0.04%。其中市內(nèi)五區(qū)需水總量為10.27億m3,供水總量為10.27億m3,包括地表水供水量為0.11億m3,地下水供水量為0.93億m3,再生水供水量為1.70億m3,外調(diào)水供水量7.53億m3,缺水量為7萬(wàn)m3,缺水率為0.01%,尚預(yù)留城市應(yīng)急水源供水量3.51億m3和戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備水源供水量2.41億m3。總之,通過(guò)研究區(qū)水資源多維協(xié)同配置和科學(xué)調(diào)整水資源總體配置格局,將徹底改變和扭轉(zhuǎn)研究區(qū)城市供水水源單一及過(guò)度依賴當(dāng)?shù)氐叵滤吹木置?逐步形成以外調(diào)水為主力水源、以市內(nèi)五區(qū)當(dāng)?shù)氐叵滤礊橹饕獞?yīng)急水源、以市內(nèi)周邊四區(qū)地下水源和石佛寺水庫(kù)(地表水與地下水聯(lián)調(diào)水源)為主要戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備水源的城市供水“三重”安全保障體系,以水資源的可持續(xù)利用支撐全域經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的可持續(xù)協(xié)同跨越發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the economy and society, human exploitation and utilization of water resources make the relationship between people and water increasingly tense. Especially since the mid and late twentieth Century, the irrational exploitation and utilization of water resources have led to the coexistence of water resources shortage and waste, frequent water pollution and ecological environment because of the outbreak of the global population in the late twentieth Century. Water resources shortage is replacing oil as a major problem causing crisis in the world, and has become one of the most serious problems faced by human beings in the twenty-first Century. Water resource allocation is one of the effective ways to solve the problem of water shortage. Through rational allocation, water resources allocation is one of the most important problems. The limited water resources make the water resources system - socioeconomic system - ecological environment system coordinated development, finally realize "man and nature, man and water harmony", ensure that the water resources system gets a healthy cycle and sustainable utilization, the social and economic system realizes the sustainable development among the various sectors, and the ecological environment system is obtained. In this paper, based on the study of water resources allocation model, based on the concept of water resources system - socioeconomic system - ecological environment system, a multi dimensional cooperative configuration model based on "two iterations and three configurations" is built on the basis of the previous water resource allocation model. The feasibility and maneuverability of the model are verified by the application of Shenyang as the research area. This study expands the scientific connotation of water resource allocation research and further enriches and develops the water resource allocation model technology and application category. The main research results include: (1) the system diagnosis and evaluation of water resources endowment conditions, On the basis of the current situation of utilization and the risk of urban water supply, based on the planning of underground water supply, the "three safety" security framework of urban water supply is formed by rational layout of conventional water source, emergency water source and strategic reserve water source, which will provide a reference for the formulation of the urban water supply emergency plan for the future urban water supply. (2) on the basis of collecting and combing a lot of related results of hydrogeological data and drilling section, the three-dimensional spatial structure model of Shenyang plain area is constructed for the first time, and the upper limit water level of groundwater controlled red line is put forward for secondary salinization of soil, road turning and subway, the anti floating and water resistance design of underground structures. The groundwater controlled water level under the control of ground water, such as ground subsidence, ground fissure, and other environmental geological disasters, provides an important basis and support for the coordinated allocation of groundwater double control and the coordinated allocation of ground water and external water. (3) on the basis of the construction of the three-dimensional stratigraphic structure model and the conceptual model of the water text geology in the plain area, the groundwater value is established. The simulation model, through the model identification and verification, determines and puts forward a complete set of simulated area hydrogeological parameters and various equilibrium elements, which lays a solid foundation for the groundwater "double control" and the dynamic mining calculation. (4) on the basis of the three-dimensional stratigraphic structure model and the hydrogeological parameter division of the study area, the thought of water resources coordination and the allocation of water resources is considered. Based on the principle of water balance, a dynamic calculation method for groundwater exploitation of different water resource allocation patterns in different years is proposed based on the coupling iterative method of groundwater exploitation based on "primary allocation judgment adjustment and reconfiguration" for groundwater exploitation of different water resources allocation patterns at different levels in different years. The calculation provides a new method. (5) according to the concept of Scientific Outlook on Development and sustainable, ecological civilization and cooperative development, the water resource allocation model is the leading traction module, the water supply risk analysis, the water multi scheme analysis, the three dimensional stratigraphic structure model, the water balance model, the groundwater numerical model and so on are constructed. The multi-dimensional coordinated allocation model of water resources for environmental water needs and groundwater is "double controlled", and a multi-dimensional collaborative configuration calculation process based on "two iterations and three configurations" is proposed to support the adjustment of water resources allocation pattern and the corresponding dynamic evolution trend analysis of underground water after the replacement of water source in the study area, which is the city of Shenyang. Underground water seal pressure mining, urban emergency water source and strategic reserve water source layout and the final formation of "man and nature, man and water harmony" Water Resources Coordination configuration, and the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system to provide technical support. (6) according to the multi-dimensional coordination configuration model and the proposed calculation process, through not With a long series of monthly adjustment calculation and comprehensive comparison of the same combination scheme, the results of the collaborative allocation of water resources for water requirements and groundwater "double control" in the ecological environment of the study area are finally determined. The total water requirement of the study area in 2030 is 3 billion 988 million m3 and the total water supply is 3 billion 987 million m3, including the total water supply in the study area. The water supply of surface water is 565 million m3, the water supply of groundwater is 1 billion 851 million m3, the water supply of reclaimed water is 314 million m3, the amount of water supply is 1 billion 257 million m3, the water shortage is 1 million 560 thousand M3, the water shortage rate is 0.04%., the total water demand in the five districts of the city is 1 billion 27 million m3, the total water supply is 1 billion 27 million m3, including the water supply of surface water 11 million m3, and the water supply of ground water 0.93 The water supply of the reclaimed water is 170 million m3, the water supply of the reclaimed water is 170 million m3, the water supply quantity of the external water supply is 70 thousand M3, the water shortage is 0.01%. The amount of water supply in the urban emergency water supply is 351 million m3 and the water supply of the strategic reserve water supply is all in a word. To reverse the situation that the water supply source of urban water supply is single and over dependence on the local underground water source, the main water source is water diversion, and the local underground water source is the main emergency water source, and the underground water source in the four districts and the stone Buddha Temple Reservoir (surface water and underground water combined water source) are the main strategic reserves of the city. The "three heavy" security system of water supply supports the sustainable and coordinated development of the whole region's economy and society with the sustainable utilization of water resources.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)水利水電科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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