本文選題：水資源承載力　切入點：水資源安全　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源承載力是度量水資源安全問題的有效手段，對于認識和解決水資源安全問題、建設水資源安全保障體系具有重大意義。但到目前為止，水資源承載力還沒有一個統(tǒng)一的概念，基于此，本論文首先總結了目前國內外具有代表性的觀點，加以分解、歸納，整合出具有普遍意義的水資源承載力概念，并對其內涵、影響因素和相關支撐理論做了深入分析；其次，以搜集整理的有關哈爾濱市各方面資料為依據，對哈爾濱市的水資源與水環(huán)境現狀、供需水構成和各用水系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展現狀、存在的問題以及未來發(fā)展趨勢做了系統(tǒng)的分析；在此基礎上，利用VensimPLE6.2軟件構建了以水資源供需平衡為核心，以水資源和環(huán)境約束的哈爾濱市水資源承載力系統(tǒng)動力學模型，并對該模型進行了歷史性檢驗和靈敏度分析，檢驗、分析結果顯示：該模型運行結果與實際系統(tǒng)歷史發(fā)展狀況一致，且具有較好的魯棒性，能夠滿足課題研究需要；最后，利用該模型對無約束條件的哈爾濱市哈爾濱常規(guī)模式社會經濟發(fā)展和有約束的哈爾濱水資源承載力以及五種假定方案條件下的哈爾濱市水資源承載力進行了模擬。 分析對比常規(guī)模式下的哈爾濱市社會經濟發(fā)展和水資源承載力模擬結果可知：未來哈爾濱水資源不足以支撐哈爾濱未來社會經濟發(fā)展。2017年之后，哈爾濱市用水總量將超過哈爾濱市水資源開發(fā)利用控制紅線，出現政策性的水資源短缺，其中，農業(yè)的超載最先出現，其次是工業(yè)，最后為第三產業(yè)。 分析對比五種假定方模擬和對模擬結果的分析可知，節(jié)水方案可以在近期有效地緩解哈爾濱市所面臨的水資源問題，說明近期哈爾濱市社會經濟發(fā)展所面臨的水資源問題相對較輕，且存在較大節(jié)水空間；產業(yè)結構調整方案和農業(yè)結構調整方案可以明顯提高未來哈爾濱市水資源承載力，主要是由于這兩種方案一定程度的削減了農業(yè)用水量，使其它行業(yè)用水短缺的情況得到有效緩解。治污方案對未來哈爾濱水資源承載力作用不大，但是該方案可以有效地消減污染物和改善環(huán)境，因此作用也不可忽視；綜合方案中包含了上述四種方案的有效措施，對未來哈爾濱市水資源承載力改善最為明顯�？梢越鉀Q未來哈爾濱市除農業(yè)之外的其它行業(yè)所面臨的水資源超載問題。
[Abstract]:The carrying capacity of water resources is an effective means to measure the problem of water resources security. It is of great significance to understand and solve the problems of water resources security and to build water resources security guarantee system.But up to now, there is not a unified concept of water resources carrying capacity. Based on this, this paper firstly summarizes the representative views at home and abroad, decomposes, induces and integrates the concept of water resources carrying capacity of universal significance.It also makes a deep analysis of its connotation, influencing factors and related supporting theories. Secondly, based on the collected and collated information on various aspects of Harbin, the paper analyzes the current situation of water resources and water environment in Harbin.The composition of water supply and demand, the present situation of water supply and demand system, the existing problems and the development trend in the future are analyzed systematically. On this basis, the balance of supply and demand of water resources is constructed by using VensimPLE6.2 software, the core of which is the balance of supply and demand of water resources.Based on the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Harbin under the constraints of water resources and environment, the historical test and sensitivity analysis of the model are carried out.The analysis results show that the running results of the model are consistent with the historical development of the actual system, and have good robustness, which can meet the needs of the research.The model is used to simulate the social and economic development of Harbin conventional model and the limited water resources carrying capacity of Harbin and the water resources carrying capacity of Harbin under five hypothetical schemes.By analyzing and comparing the results of social and economic development and water resources carrying capacity of Harbin under the conventional model, we can see that the future Harbin water resources will not be enough to support the future social and economic development of Harbin.The total amount of water used in Harbin will exceed the red line of water resources development and utilization in Harbin, and there will be a policy shortage of water resources. Among them, the overload of agriculture appears first, followed by industry, and finally the tertiary industry.Analysis and comparison of five hypothetical square simulations and analysis of simulation results show that water-saving schemes can effectively alleviate the water resources problems faced by Harbin in the near future.It shows that the water resources problems facing the recent socio-economic development in Harbin are relatively light, and there is more water saving space, and the industrial structure adjustment scheme and the agricultural structure adjustment plan can obviously improve the water resources carrying capacity of Harbin in the future.The main reason is that these two schemes reduce agricultural water consumption to a certain extent, so that the shortage of water in other industries can be effectively alleviated.The pollution control plan has little effect on the carrying capacity of water resources in Harbin in the future, but it can effectively reduce pollutants and improve the environment, so it can not be ignored.The improvement of water resources carrying capacity in future Harbin is the most obvious.Can solve the future Harbin City in addition to agriculture other industries facing the problem of water resources overload.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 卜楠楠;唐德善;尹筍;;基于AHP法的浙江省水資源承載力模糊綜合評價[J];水電能源科學;2012年03期

2 王浩;嚴登華;賈仰文;胡東來;王凌河;;現代水文水資源學科體系及研究前沿和熱點問題[J];水科學進展;2010年04期

3 馮尚友,劉國全;水資源持續(xù)利用的框架[J];水科學進展;1997年04期

4 王浩,陳敏建,何希吾 ,秦大庸,汪黨獻 ,唐克旺 ,尹明萬 ,王芳 ,王研 ,甘泓 ,朱延華 ,李令躍 ,顧定法 ,馬靜 ,王建華;西北地區(qū)水資源合理配置與承載能力研究[J];中國水利;2004年22期

5 惠泱河,蔣曉輝,黃強,薛小杰;水資源承載力評價指標體系研究[J];水土保持通報;2001年01期

6 ;第六屆世界水論壇部長宣言(2012年3月13日)[J];中國水利;2012年06期

7 趙新宇,費良軍,高傳昌;城市水資源承載能力多目標分析[J];西北農林科技大學學報(自然科學版);2005年09期

8 楊青,何清;塔里木河流域的氣候變化、徑流量及人類活動間的相互影響[J];應用氣象學報;2003年03期

9 陳劭鋒;承載力:從靜態(tài)到動態(tài)的轉變[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2003年01期

10 曲耀光,樊勝岳;黑河流域水資源承載力分析計算與對策[J];中國沙漠;2000年01期

，

本文編號：1708533