發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-23 11:32

  本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源　切入點(diǎn)：秦嶺南部　出處：《長(zhǎng)江流域資源與環(huán)境》2017年06期

【摘要】：秦嶺南部地區(qū)地形及氣候條件復(fù)雜,作為油菜主要種植區(qū)之一,研究其農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源的變化特征及其對(duì)油菜的影響,可以為該區(qū)有效利用農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源、合理安排農(nóng)事活動(dòng)提高油菜生產(chǎn)提供實(shí)踐參考。以1960~2014年秦嶺南部33個(gè)站點(diǎn)的逐日氣象數(shù)據(jù)和近25a各省市統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒資料,通過滑動(dòng)平均、線性傾向估計(jì)、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析等方法,研究秦嶺南部農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源的時(shí)空變化特征及對(duì)油菜產(chǎn)量的影響。結(jié)果表明:(1)近55a來,秦嶺南部地區(qū)油菜生長(zhǎng)季內(nèi)平均氣溫和≥5℃積溫呈上升趨勢(shì),平均速率分別為0.2、29.3℃/10 a,凍害指數(shù)、降水量、開花期降水量和相對(duì)濕度與日照時(shí)數(shù)都呈減少趨勢(shì),平均每10 a分別減少0.3、14.8 mm、1.4 mm、0.6%、32.2 h。(2)近55a來研究區(qū)油菜生長(zhǎng)季內(nèi)平均氣溫與≥5℃積溫的多年平均空間分布都表現(xiàn)為由西南向東北方向遞減,凍害指數(shù)的空間變化與二者相反,表明越冬期極端最低氣溫值在空間上由西南向東北逐漸減小;其水資源指標(biāo)多年平均空間分布由南向北遞減,日照時(shí)數(shù)則由西南向東北遞增。(3)1960~2014年秦嶺南部油菜生長(zhǎng)季內(nèi)平均氣溫與≥5℃積溫在空間上均呈極顯著的增加趨勢(shì),研究區(qū)西部變化幅度較小,東部變化幅度較大,凍害指數(shù)的空間變化趨勢(shì)與二者相同;水資源與日照時(shí)數(shù)在空間上均呈極顯著的減少趨勢(shì),只有少數(shù)站點(diǎn)表現(xiàn)為極顯著的增加趨勢(shì),而日照時(shí)數(shù)在研究區(qū)東部變化幅度相對(duì)較大,其余區(qū)域變化幅度相對(duì)較小。總體上,平均氣溫和≥5℃積溫高值區(qū)的變化幅度小,低值區(qū)變化幅度大,其他指標(biāo)與之相反。(4)近25a來秦嶺南部油菜氣候產(chǎn)量呈不明顯的上升趨勢(shì),平均速率為3.79 kg/(a·hm~2),其空間變化幅度差異大,且大部分站點(diǎn)的變化趨勢(shì)均不顯著;由關(guān)聯(lián)度得作用于各區(qū)域油菜氣候產(chǎn)量的主要影響因子存在差異。各農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源指標(biāo)的變化幅度越大,對(duì)油菜單產(chǎn)的可能影響相對(duì)較大。
[Abstract]:The topography and climatic conditions in the southern Qinling Mountains are complex. As one of the main rapeseed growing areas, the study on the variation characteristics of agricultural climatic resources and their effects on rapeseed can make effective use of agricultural climatic resources in this area. Reasonable arrangement of agricultural activities to improve rapeseed production provides practical reference. Based on daily meteorological data of 33 stations in the southern Qinling Mountains from 1960 to 2014 and statistical yearbooks of provinces and cities in recent 25 years, the methods of sliding average, linear tendency estimation and grey correlation analysis are used. The temporal and spatial changes of agricultural climatic resources in the southern Qinling Mountains and their effects on rape yield were studied. The results showed that the average air temperature and accumulated temperature 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：1653280