本文關(guān)鍵詞： 洞庭湖流域 水資源演變 氣候變化 水熱耦合平衡 GBHM模型　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：氣候變化已公認(rèn)為全球最重要的環(huán)境問題之一，日益加劇的人類活動對流域水循環(huán)也產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響，以水資源問題（洪澇災(zāi)害、干旱災(zāi)害）突出和復(fù)雜的洞庭湖流域?yàn)閷ο�，研究水資源演變的特征和規(guī)律，定量評價氣候變化和人類活動對徑流的影響，對水資源可持續(xù)利用和維持洞庭湖生態(tài)功能等具有重要意義。 采用線性傾向估計(jì)方法、滑動平均法、去趨勢預(yù)置白MK趨勢檢驗(yàn)等方法，分析了洞庭湖流域水文氣象要素的變化特征。1960-2010年間，城陵磯徑流量減少和水位上升，徑流量減少主要由長江三口分流量的減少所導(dǎo)致。比較1993-2002年與2003-2010年，城陵磯徑流量減少了599.2億m3，其中四水減少350.4億m3，占58.4%；城陵磯水位在兩時段內(nèi)下降0.53m，通過構(gòu)建線性回歸模型進(jìn)行歸因分析得出，城陵磯徑流量減少、長江干流水位下降的影響量分別為0.26m、0.32m，，考慮三口徑流量減少，長江干流水文特征變化對城陵磯水位的影響比例達(dá)65%。 采用有序聚類法和MK突變檢驗(yàn)方法，并結(jié)合流域重要時間節(jié)點(diǎn)，將洞庭湖四水流域徑流序列劃分為三個階段：1979-1988、1989-2002、2003-2010。 基于水熱耦合平衡關(guān)系，推導(dǎo)了徑流對氣候要素的敏感性系數(shù)，并探究了如何區(qū)分人類活動對徑流的影響，繼而定量分析了氣候變化和人類活動對洞庭湖四水徑流的影響，結(jié)果表明：I、II階段中徑流量增加的氣候變化影響比例分別為120.8%、96.1%、97.8%、453.5%，人類活動影響比例分別為-24.5%、2.2%、0.7%、-355.5%，II、III階段中徑流量減少的氣候變化影響比例分別為206.0%、110.7%、112.6%、100.9%，人類活動影響比例分別為-95.3%、-6.9%、-9.8%、0.6%。 論文在洞庭湖四水流域構(gòu)建了GBHM分布式水文模型，通過模擬不同方案的徑流過程，定量評價了氣候變化對四水徑流的影響，結(jié)果表明：I、II階段中氣候變化的影響比例分別為79.6%、69.3%、63.7%、447.2%，II、III階段中氣候變化的影響的影響比例為154.3%、89.7%、107.9%、124.2%。 兩種評價方法均表明氣候變化是導(dǎo)致四水流域徑流變化的主導(dǎo)因素，其中又以降雨量的變化起主要作用。人類活動在大部分時期造成徑流量增加，是流域中城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)、水土流失、水土保持、興修水庫、人工耗水等因素綜合作用的結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Climate change has been recognized as one of the most important environmental problems in the world, and increasing human activities have had a significant impact on the watershed water cycle, with regard to water resources (flood and waterlogging disasters). Drought disasters) the prominent and complex Dongting Lake basin is the object of study on the characteristics and laws of water resources evolution, and quantitative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, It is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and the maintenance of ecological function of Dongting Lake. By means of linear tendency estimation method, moving average method and tendency preset MK trend test method, the variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements in Dongting Lake basin are analyzed. During the period 1960-2010, the runoff and water level of Chenglingji are decreased and the water level is rising. The decrease in runoff is mainly caused by the decrease in the discharge of the Yangtze River's three ports. A comparison between 1993-2002 and 2003-2010, The runoff of Chenglingji decreased by 59.92 billion m3, in which the water level of Chenglingji decreased by 35.04 billion m3, accounting for 58.4 m, and the water level of Chenglingji decreased by 0.53 m during the two periods. The result of attribution analysis based on the linear regression model showed that the runoff of Chenglingji decreased. The water level of the main stream of the Yangtze River is reduced by 0.26mand 0.32m. considering the decrease of the runoff of the three channels, the influence ratio of the change of the hydrological characteristics of the Yangtze River trunk to the water level of Chenglingji reaches 65%. By using the method of ordered clustering and MK mutation test, and combining with the important time nodes of the watershed, the runoff sequence of the Sishui watershed of Dongting Lake is divided into three stages: 1 / 1979-1988-1989-2002n / 2003-2010. Based on the relationship between water and heat, the sensitivity coefficient of runoff to climate factors is derived, and how to distinguish the impacts of human activities on runoff is discussed. Then, the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in Dongting Lake are quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the proportion of climate change effect of runoff increase in stage II was 120.80.96. 1 and 97.8and 453.5. the proportion of human activity influence was -24.5and 2.20.7and 2.20.7and -355.50.The proportion of climate change effect of runoff reduction in stage III was 206.0110.70.112.6100.9, and the proportion of human activity influence was -95.33-6.9n- 9.80.0.The proportion of human activity influence was -95.3- 6.9n- 9.80.0.The proportion of climate change effect was -95.33-6.9ng-9.80.95. In this paper, GBHM distributed hydrological model is constructed in the Sishui basin of Dongting Lake. By simulating the runoff process of different schemes, the effects of climate change on the runoff of four water are quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the proportion of the effects of climate change in stage II is 79.6and 69.3and 63.7and 447.2respectively. The proportion of the effects of climate change in stage III is 154.389.70.107.9and 124.2. 2. Both evaluation methods show that climate change is the leading factor leading to runoff change in Sishui watershed, and the change of rainfall plays a major role. Human activities cause runoff increase in most of the period, which is the construction of urbanization in the basin. Soil erosion, soil and water conservation, construction of reservoir, artificial water consumption and other factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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