本文關(guān)鍵詞：污水資源化及產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)西北地區(qū)水資源承載力的影響研究　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 污水資源化 產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整 水資源承載力 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 回歸分析

【摘要】：西北地區(qū)在我國(guó)水資源短缺問(wèn)題中表現(xiàn)最為突出，無(wú)論是先天的水資源供給量不足，還是不均衡發(fā)展引起尖銳的水資源供需矛盾，都嚴(yán)重制約了西北地區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。然而，西北地區(qū)繼續(xù)開(kāi)發(fā)水資源的潛力已不大，跨區(qū)調(diào)水須在國(guó)家統(tǒng)籌計(jì)劃下以大規(guī)模工程來(lái)考慮，相對(duì)而言，污水資源化及產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整是解決西北地區(qū)水資源不足問(wèn)題和提高水資源承載力的有效途徑，同時(shí)符合未來(lái)西部大開(kāi)發(fā)、區(qū)域社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的目標(biāo)。 通過(guò)追蹤大量的國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)污水資源化及產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)水資源承載力影響研究的文獻(xiàn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法在水資源承載力評(píng)價(jià)中運(yùn)用成熟；關(guān)于污水資源化對(duì)水資源承載力影響的研究缺少定量分析；產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)水資源承載力影響的研究側(cè)重水資源約束下產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的選擇；將兩者結(jié)合起來(lái)分析對(duì)水資源承載力影響的研究更是不多。因此，本文利用污水資源化及產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素，通過(guò)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法定量分析對(duì)西北地區(qū)水資源承載力的影響程度，為西北地區(qū)有效提高水資源承載力提供相應(yīng)對(duì)策和建議。 (1)利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)原理進(jìn)行污水資源化對(duì)水資源承載力影響的三個(gè)反饋回路分析，模擬評(píng)價(jià)污水資源化對(duì)西北地區(qū)水資源承載力的影響程度。結(jié)果顯示污水資源化能力不變時(shí)，水資源未來(lái)可承載人口及經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的能力是很弱的；當(dāng)污水資源化能力相關(guān)參數(shù)提高10%時(shí)，水資源未來(lái)可承載的人口及經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)�？商岣�20%；同時(shí)說(shuō)明污水資源化能力適度提高對(duì)水資源承載力提高作用顯著。 (2)通過(guò)西北地區(qū)三大產(chǎn)業(yè)萬(wàn)元GDP用水量的趨勢(shì)分析，得出西北地區(qū)第一、二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)最佳用水比例為0.779:0.195:0.266。結(jié)果顯示采用此用水比例，水資源不僅可以承載目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模，而且可達(dá)到最大節(jié)水量191.361×108m3；但采用其它產(chǎn)業(yè)用水比例不是水資源承載經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的能力下降，就是節(jié)水效果達(dá)不到最佳。 (3)將污水資源化能力提高10%同時(shí)采用三大產(chǎn)業(yè)最佳用水比例0.779:0.195:0.266，通過(guò)相關(guān)變量和參數(shù)的選擇、基本約束條件的設(shè)計(jì)，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模擬分析兩個(gè)因素同時(shí)作用對(duì)水資源承載力的影響情況。結(jié)果顯示2020年水資源可承載的人口及經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模比現(xiàn)狀水平下提高近30%，，各指標(biāo)值接近規(guī)劃目標(biāo)值，而且工業(yè)增加值的提高幅度最大；同時(shí)反映出污水資源化能力提高對(duì)水資源承載力的影響程度相對(duì)大于產(chǎn)業(yè)用水結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)水資源承載力的影響程度。
[Abstract]:In the northwest area , the problems of water resources shortage in China are the most prominent , whether the supply amount of water resources in the first day is insufficient or the uneven development causes acute water resources supply and demand contradiction , which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the social economy in the northwest area . However , the development of water resources in the northwest area has not been large . However , the adjustment of water resources and industrial water use in the northwest area is an effective way to solve the problem of water resources shortage in the northwest area and to improve the water resources carrying capacity , and meet the goal of sustainable development of the western region in the future and the sustainable development of the regional socio - economic development . It is found that the system dynamics method is mature in the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity by tracing a large number of domestic and foreign literatures about the influence of wastewater reclamation and industrial water structure adjustment on water resources carrying capacity . ( 1 ) Based on the analysis of three feedback loops of the effect of wastewater reclamation on the water resources carrying capacity , the influence degree of wastewater reclamation on the water resources carrying capacity in the Northwest China is simulated . The results show that the capacity of water resources to carry the population and economic scale is very weak when the resource capacity of the wastewater is unchanged ; when the related parameters of the wastewater reclamation capacity are increased by 10 % , the population and economic scale of the water resources in the future can be increased by 20 % ; meanwhile , the improvement of the water resource capacity is obvious . ( 2 ) According to the trend analysis of the water consumption of the three industries in the Northwest China , the optimum water consumption ratio of the first , second and third industries in the Northwest China is 0.779 : 0.195 : 0.266 . The results show that the water resources can not only carry the present economic scale , but also can reach the maximum water saving capacity of 191.361 脳 108m3 , but the water saving effect is not the best . ( 3 ) The capacity of wastewater reclamation is increased by 10 % , and the optimum water consumption ratio of three industries is 0.779 : 0.195 : 0.266 . The influence of two factors on the water resources carrying capacity is analyzed by the selection of relevant variables and parameters . The results show that the population and economic scale of the water resources can be increased by nearly 30 % compared with the current situation level .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X703;TV213.4

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