本文選題：項目管理 + 可靠性��； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著大信息時代的來臨,對相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)過程提出了更快、更可靠的要求。但在研發(fā)過程中,狀態(tài)的描述通常是不確定的,如“運行穩(wěn)定”、“風(fēng)險很大”、“有90%左右的可靠度”等。當作為衡量可靠性高低標準的可靠度也是不確定的時候,經(jīng)典的概率方法就不能完全適用于該類問題。本研究旨在解決光無源器件研發(fā)過程中的不確定可靠性的信息化與規(guī)劃問題。本研究分為三個部分:第一部分,討論了適用于不確定可靠度分析中的不確定變量、不確定測度、不確定規(guī)劃等相關(guān)數(shù)學(xué)理論基礎(chǔ);建立了基于不確定測度空間理論的項目可靠性模型,并給出了串聯(lián)、并聯(lián)、混聯(lián)、儲備等基本結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系的不確定可靠度的數(shù)學(xué)描述,然后給出了基于Delphi法的不確定分布估計方法。區(qū)別于傳統(tǒng)可靠度定義,不確定可靠度研究的對象是不確定變量和不確定集類,具有模糊和不精確的特點,與概率型隨機變量有本質(zhì)區(qū)別;第二部分,從系統(tǒng)工程與可靠性工程的角度,論述了光無源器件研發(fā)過程中相關(guān)特性,并且比較了經(jīng)典可靠度理論在處理不確定問題的局限性,然后討論了基于不確定可靠度理論的建模方法與流程。第三部分,研究了將不確定理論應(yīng)用到實際光無源器件研發(fā)過程中的可靠性分析方法,并結(jié)合工程實例說明了不確定規(guī)劃理論在提升研發(fā)過程可靠性的應(yīng)用方法。通過分析3種光無源器件研發(fā)項目中的典型案例,說明了不確定規(guī)劃模型在研發(fā)過程可靠性提升方面,更加符合實際工程的需要,可有效地用于對研發(fā)過程可靠度的預(yù)計和評估,以減小風(fēng)險、降低成本、提高工程質(zhì)量。最后提出了適用于研發(fā)過程的不確定可靠性提升建議。本文的主要工作與價值在于:1、將可靠度的研究角度從經(jīng)典的概率測度空間模型擴展到不確定測度空間模型,以解決研發(fā)過程中的不確定問題。2、討論了光無源器件研發(fā)過程中的不確定可靠度數(shù)學(xué)模型與適合工程項目的不確定可靠度分布估計方法。3、研究了不確定可靠度規(guī)劃的工程應(yīng)用,為理論轉(zhuǎn)化為實踐提供了案例參考。
[Abstract]:With the advent of the information age, the R & D process of related products has put forward faster and more reliable requirements. But in the research and development process, the description of the state is usually uncertain, such as "stable operation", "very risky", "there is about 90% reliability" and so on. When the reliability is uncertain as the criterion of reliability, the classical probability method can not be applied to this kind of problem completely. The purpose of this study is to solve the problem of information and planning of uncertain reliability in the research and development of optical passive devices. This research is divided into three parts: in the first part, the mathematical theories of uncertain variables, uncertain measures and uncertain programming are discussed. The project reliability model based on the uncertainty measure space theory is established, and the mathematical description of the uncertainty reliability of the series, parallel, hybrid, reserve and other basic structural relationships is given. Then an estimation method of uncertain distribution based on Delphi method is presented. Different from the traditional definition of reliability, the research object of uncertainty reliability is uncertain variables and uncertain set classes, which have the characteristics of fuzzy and imprecise, and are essentially different from probabilistic random variables. From the point of view of system engineering and reliability engineering, the related characteristics of optical passive devices are discussed, and the limitations of classical reliability theory in dealing with uncertain problems are compared. Then the modeling method and process based on uncertainty reliability theory are discussed. In the third part, the reliability analysis method of applying uncertainty theory to the research and development of practical optical passive devices is studied, and the application method of uncertain programming theory in improving the reliability of research and development process is illustrated with an engineering example. By analyzing the typical cases of three kinds of optical passive device R & D projects, it is shown that the uncertain programming model is more suitable to the practical engineering needs in improving the reliability of the R & D process. It can be used to predict and evaluate the reliability of R & D process effectively to reduce risk, reduce cost and improve engineering quality. Finally, an uncertain reliability enhancement proposal for R & D process is proposed. The main work and value of this paper lies in: 1. The research angle of reliability is extended from the classical probability measure space model to the uncertain measure space model. In order to solve the uncertain problem of R & D, the mathematical model of uncertainty reliability and the method of estimating uncertainty reliability distribution suitable for engineering projects are discussed, and the engineering application of uncertain reliability planning is studied. It provides a case reference for the theory conversion to practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TN929.1;TB114.3

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