本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避度不確定性的水電工程施工安全行為決策，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避度不確定性的水電工程施工安全行為決策

Safety behavior decision in hydroelectric engineering construction with uncertain risk aversion

[1] [2] [3] [4]

CHEN Shu , HU Zhigen , LIU Quan , GUO Jie （ 1. School of Water Resource and Hydropower, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China ; 2. Department of Water Resource, Conghua

[1]武漢大學(xué)水利水電學(xué)院,武漢430072; [2]廣州從化市水務(wù)局,廣州510900

文章摘要：通過分析水電工程建設(shè)的多任務(wù)關(guān)系，，利用委托代理理論構(gòu)建了水電投資企業(yè)和水電施工企業(yè)的安全行為決策模型。根據(jù)水電投資企業(yè)是否確定施工企業(yè)風(fēng)險規(guī)避度，分別討論了水電投資企業(yè)和施工企業(yè)的Stackelberg博弈最優(yōu)安全行為策略。研究結(jié)果表明，水電投資企業(yè)安全任務(wù)激勵報酬與施工企業(yè)在安全任務(wù)上的努力水平會隨著努力績效系數(shù)估計的增大而增大。當(dāng)水電投資企業(yè)不確定施工企業(yè)的風(fēng)險規(guī)避度時，會造成預(yù)期收益的下降。特別地，當(dāng)風(fēng)險規(guī)避度服從均勻分布時，水電投資企業(yè)激勵報酬和預(yù)期收益的“預(yù)測失真”隨著對風(fēng)險規(guī)避度估計偏差的增加而加劇。最后通過算例驗證了結(jié)論的有效性。

Abstr：This paper develops a safety behavior decision model for the investment enterprise and construction enterprise of hydropower engineering using multi-task principal-agent theory, and discusses the Stackelberg game strategies for the optimal safety behaviors of these enterprises in view of uncertain risk aversion. The results show that the incentive pay of safety task in the investment enterprise and the effort level of safety task in the construction enterprise are directly proportional to observable variables variance. The expected revenue of investment enterprise declines if it cannot set the risk aversion degree of construction enterprise. Particularly, in the case of uniform distribution of risk aversion, the prediction distortions of incentive pays and expected revenue become more serious as a result of more deviation in the risk aversion estimate. A case study is presented to demonstrate the results.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:hydropower engineering construction safety behavior decision Stackelberg game risk aversion uncertainty

課題項目：國家自然科學(xué)基金（51079115,10902078）;中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金（201120602020006）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于風(fēng)險規(guī)避度不確定性的水電工程施工安全行為決策，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。